Arenado trade?

[Vic Sage]

article on SNY where the guy is shilling for Mets to trade for Arenado:



https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/with-trade-looking-inevitable-heres-why-rockies-nolan-arenado-is-a-near-perfect-mets-fit/312956314https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/with-trade-looking-inevitable-heres-why-rockies-nolan-arenado-is-a-near-perfect-mets-fit/312956314



to summarize:



The writer is advocating for Mets to trade for a guy who hits in Coors, whose career road splits make him a .265/30hr/90rbi .799 OPS guy outside of Coors, and we should pay him an average of $34m over the next 6 years, for his age 29-35 seasons, and we should give up some or all of our top 4 prospects to do that, so he can play a position we already have filled with an excellent, younger, cheaper player.



who else has a problem with this?

[Vic Sage]

his career line at CitiField, over the equivalent of a full major league season: .229/28hr/70rbi/.684ops

[Edgy MD]

There is probably a reasonable argument for an Arenado trade out there. He's a two-way All-Star. He's probably not what he was with the glove, but what he has been has been as good as or better than Schmidt or Robinson, and it's not unreasonable to think he has a few top defensive years ahead. He may be the top defensive thirdbaseman of all-time.



But whatever argument can support an Arenado trade, this isn't it. The Mets already have let all the pressure out of Seattle's payroll. I can't applaud a guy who advocates for them to do the same for Colorady. If the Mets are expected to consume his contract, there had better be a tasty-ass side dish.



This reads more clicky-baity than anything. The only thing that makes this a worthwhile discussion (third time it's come up this offseason?) is that the Canó trade happened so clearly you can can't consign this from the realm of possibllity.

[Vic Sage]

But how much more is having great defense at a corner worth, rather than merely good defense?

[Centerfield]

The Wilpon shills at SNY always favor giving up prospect capital for stars. Baty? Alvararez?...but this is Nolan Arenado!



Forget the fact that Anthony Rendon, a guy who doesn't play at Coor's, was available a few months ago for just money. And the Mets treated him like he had COVID 19.

[Edgy MD]

Vic Sage wrote: But how much more is having great defense at a corner worth, rather than merely good defense?

Well, he probably isn't merely good defense, as I tried to lay out.



What he's worth is ... surely less than he is being paid, for my money.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd make a deal for Arenado if Cano was involved. McNeil could slide over to second base. The Rockies would save some money. But that's not the kind of deal the Rockies would make.

[Edgy MD]

They might, rabbit.



And the Mets would walk away with better lefty-righty balance.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy, you misunderstood me. I meant that, even assuming Arenado is still a great gg-caliber 3bman, how much more is his great defense worth over merely good D (like McNeil)?

in any event, if the deal unloaded Cano, i'd be all in on that. But no, i don't think they'd do that. We'd have to include even more or better prospects just to get someone to take his contract.

[Edgy MD]

My understanding would be that top defense vs. merely good defense at third would be worth between 1.8 and 2.5 wins. I'm comfortable calling it two, because a 3.5 win defensive season even in an elite year is hard to put up for a guy playing on the corner. So we're probably comparing 2.8 defensive wins to to 0.8.



The other side of the thing is that the Cardinals and Braves are also reportedly in on this. So the Mets may not need to get this guy (they probably don't), but they are behooved to at least stay in the conversation, if only to force these other teams to make it hurt.

[Ceetar]

Arenado is really really good and you can acquire him without completely gutting your team in other ways, you do it.