Heyman: Free Agent Salary Predictions

[Centerfield]

Heyman assesses the market for the top 80 free agents. He also includes the predictions of an "expert", who he says has been pretty accurate in the past.

It doesn't mean a heck of a lot, but it does give you an idea of the rough market value.

https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-how-much-will-the-top-80-free-agents-get/

A few notables:

They agree with Frayed Knot's assessment of Lucas Duda:

52. Lucas Duda, 1B. This might be a nice time for a bounce-back year for Duda. The Mariners always have been fans, and they need a first baseman. Expert: $5M/1 year. Me: $12M/2 years.

A few others:

4. Jake Arrieta, SP. He has pretty consistently come up big in big spots, and while he’s a little older than Darvish, a case could be made that he’s logged fewer innings (Darvish was an early pro in Japan) – though of course some of that is because he struggled as an Oriole, despite the obvious talent. While he has an unorthodox delivery, he’s never had Tommy John surgery, and generally has avoided arm trouble. It’s been an interesting career, with some low lows and some incredible highs. But a much better second half than first helps his case. Expert: $140M/5 years. Me: $125M/5 years.

25. Neil Walker, 2B. This fellow can hit, and there are teams that can use a second baseman, which puts him in a decent spot. He made the right call to take the qualifying offer last year, but he should be able to get a multi-year deal this time. Expert: $21M/2 years. Me: $22M/2 years.

29. Jason Vargas, SP. The peripherals aren’t beautiful, but he knows how to pitch – and win. That should count for something. Expert: $14M/2 years. Me: $24M/2 years.

31. Welington Castillo, C. He opted out of his $7 million salary because he figured he could do better. An offensive catcher is a nice thing to have. Expert: $22M/3 years. Me: $14M/2 years.

[smg58]

Lance Lynn looks like a bargain compared to Darvish and Arrieta. He had a higher ERA+ last season than either of them (Lynn 124, Arrieta 123, Darvish 118); his FIP suggests there might have been some luck involved, but it was his first year back from TJS and he's a good bet to improve.

[smg58]

Lots of relievers on the list. I think the play there is to wait for the market to cool a little, there will still be plenty of options. Mike Minor looks like a bargain, and I'd take Addison Reed back for the price they're suggesting.

[Ceetar]

smg58 wrote: Lance Lynn looks like a bargain compared to Darvish and Arrieta. He had a higher ERA+ last season than either of them (Lynn 124, Arrieta 123, Darvish 118); his FIP suggests there might have been some luck involved, but it was his first year back from TJS and he's a good bet to improve.

more than some.

It was a whole season too, but before that he was a consistently solid mid-rotation guy. Depends if you think the reduced Ks and increased BBs can revert to pre-2017 levels or you think that and the HR spike are a result of the juicier ball and he's basically garbage.

.244 BABIP. Seems like at best he was effectively wild.

Digging a little more it looks like it was cutter/changeup movement that may have had an impact. So I guess there's hope that he can replicate that, there was a lot of out of zone contact, but hitters may adjust to a new scouting report..

[Benjamin Grimm]

smg58 wrote: Lots of relievers on the list. I think the play there is to wait for the market to cool a little, there will still be plenty of options. Mike Minor looks like a bargain, and I'd take Addison Reed back for the price they're suggesting.

My guess is that their first move will be to sign one of the lower-end relievers on the free agent market. That way they'll at least have someone in their pocket and they'll take it from there.

[smg58]

Ceetar wrote: Lance Lynn looks like a bargain compared to Darvish and Arrieta. He had a higher ERA+ last season than either of them (Lynn 124, Arrieta 123, Darvish 118); his FIP suggests there might have been some luck involved, but it was his first year back from TJS and he's a good bet to improve. more than some. It was a whole season too, but before that he was a consistently solid mid-rotation guy. Depends if you think the reduced Ks and increased BBs can revert to pre-2017 levels or you think that and the HR spike are a result of the juicier ball and he's basically garbage. .244 BABIP. Seems like at best he was effectively wild. Digging a little more it looks like it was cutter/changeup movement that may have had an impact. So I guess there's hope that he can replicate that, there was a lot of out of zone contact, but hitters may adjust to a new scouting report..

There's definitely risk involved. But there's also a chance that he will be as good going forward as the big 2 for about half the price.

Regarding second base: Well you're not going to upgrade on Neil Walker in the free agent market, but you might be able to get Neil Walker...

[Benjamin Grimm]

Kristie Ackert reports today that in addition to Neil Walker, the Mets have another candidate that they're considering for second base in 2018: Jose Reyes.

[HahnSolo]

If the Mets have soured on Smith; feel he might need another year of seasoning; or feel he might need a push from some competition, would anyone be interested in Mark Reynolds on a one year deal?

[Vic Sage]

let Cabrera play 2b and, assuming a budget of $40M-$45m to spend, sign:

Cain / cf [$16m]
Chatwood / sp [$12m]
Nunez / 3b [$8m]
Minor* / Lhrp [$8m]

[u:vyxck05n]lineup:[/u:vyxck05n]
Cain (cf)
Nunez (3b)
Conforto* (rf)
Cespedes (lf)
Cabrera# (2b)
Rosario (ss)
Smith* (1b)
D'Arnaud ©

[u:vyxck05n]bench:[/u:vyxck05n]
Lagares
Nimmo*
Flores
TJRivera
Plawecki

rotation:
Syndegaard
DeGrom
Matz
Harvey
Chatwood

Bullpen:
Familia
Blevins*
Ramos
Minor*
Sewald
Lugo
Wheeler

[ashie62]

I wouldn't be to quick to pencil in Conforto as the starter.