Cowtipper

=metsmarathon post_id=155343 time=1715713504 user_id=83] boy, y'know, you never know how good you are at filling out a lineup card until you have to do it in the big leagues. talking like dude just fell offa turnip truck and landed the manager's job. for fuck's sake.

The statements are not incorrect. Apples -- > apples. Minor league experience != major league experience. For those who need things spelled out, apples --> apples implies we should compare like things, not those that are vastly dissimilar. I apologize if my building that assumption into the aforementioned is too hard to grapple with.

It seemed that, as we are talking about the major leagues, the assumption of 'major league experience' was built into the statement. But as I've had to spell things out for the less-than-critical thinkers in the past, I'll spell it out here, as well. He managed in the low minors over a decade ago. No comparison.

This is Mendoza's first year managing in the majors.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Mr. Met looks weird without a cap. Makes me lugubrious.

Maybe Mendoza is just a bad manager. Maybe they need to stop hiring guys off the street with no managerial experience. The last time they hired a guy with actual experience, he led them to a 101-win season. And the last time before that, he led them to the World Series in 2015.

"The worst team money can buy."

Ramirez is in. It's only 2-0. Have the Mets really thrown in the towel?

Baty struck out. Gee, that kid is 1st round draft pick material right there!

Good to see the stars earning their paychecks.

I sure hope Butto doesn't get the boot-o when Megill and/or Peterson come back. They've been trended toward inconsistency their whole careers, while Butto has been nothing but promising. I bet Megill could be traded for a used toilet seat and Peterson might get back a few Terry Mulholland rookie cards.

Kyle Schwarber looks like he eats sticks of butter.

Our one-through-four hitters are batting .230 so far this year. How lugubrious.

Garrett "The Stub" Stubbs. He's 5' 10", significantly lower than the 6' 2"-6' 3" of the average big leaguer. The ladies call me "The Stub," but for different reasons.

The word to describe the Mets today will be "lugubrious." I repeat, "lugubrious."

This is getting boring, I'll let you have the last word.

Note how I'm actually providing statistics to back my argument and not just snideness. Interesting disparity in our styles.

So a 40% blown save rate is acceptable as long as the advanced metrics make him look good. Noted. Organic stats that occur from the natural progression of sport are less flawed than manmade statistics. A manmade stat, more aptly called a 'metric' or 'formula' or 'algorithm', is inherently more unreliable because it is created by man, who is inherently flawed. A double is a double because you see it is a double. To understand WAR, you have to read a long, convoluted explainer. There's a large difference there. Blowing saves is not doing one's job correctly. Especially when ones job is "closer." Whose job is to "save" games. Mental gymnastics cannot wiggle out of that one. So there is no trend, by your own admission. Which means there is not a positive trend either. Which should be disconcerting, at $20 million per year. One should expect a positive trend considering his supposed pedigree, and his current pay grade. Diaz ranks 18th out of 29 in save percentage since joining the Mets in 2019, among pitchers with 50+ saves. That means he's done worse than ~61% of those on the list. https://i.imgur.com/ZPO7Tvy.png> Among pitchers with 100+ saves since 2019, he is SECOND-TO-LAST in save percentage. He has been the second-worst closer since 2019. Since a closer's job is to save games successfully. https://i.imgur.com/s90S7Da.png>

Edgy MD wrote: One thing we can take from the data above, though, if we are willing to accept both bWAR and extrapolation at face value, his 2020 season was even more productive than 2022, relative to the length of the season. Who cares what bWAR says, he blew saves at a 40% rate in 2020. If a player's not doing his job correctly, no amount of sabermetric mental gymnastics will make him "good." WAR is a flawed metric and should be looked at as a frivolity, not a reliable means to gauge...anything.

Also I called the collapse of deGrom long before anyone else did.

Edgy MD wrote: Trends result in totals, so I'm not wrong. I don't think you understand, but totals aren't trends until they are broken into units whose differences can be compared. It takes more than two units to plot a trend. The first is a starting point, so there is only one change. One difference What a trend is is a consistency in change, and there can be no consistency across a unit of one. This is the actual trajectory of Mr. Díaz' career. https://i0.wp.com/metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2024/05/diaz-productivty.png?ssl=1 > Red seasons represent his time with the Mariners. Blue seasons represent his time with the Mets. As can be gleaned, his performance has risen and fallen, like most relievers, but no consistent year-to-year trend emerges whatsoever. I'd say you're grasping at straws because you invested a lot of "liking" and "hope" into Diaz and you don't want to be let down. I'm doing nothing of the sort. Please don't presume to analyze me, and please don't use quotes to represent me in terms I have not written or spoken. I want to be wrong, ... About the trend you claim you've isolated, you are certainly wrong. ...but I've called the demise of A LOT of Mets long before many fans were willing to admit it, ... 1. You're changing your argument from isolating a trend to calling a demise. (Is Edwin Díaz about to die?) 2. You're propping up a straw man. 3. You're citing evidence not in the record. ... so I have a history of being correct. About what? About recognizing that all athletes fail and all careers end eventually? Because that's hardly an insight. You can be as reductive as you want, or change the goalposts if you want, but the crux of what we are analyzing is whether Diaz, at 30, supposedly in his peak, is on the decline. Not "that all athletes fail and all careers end eventually." Hence, your statement is largely a non-sequitur. Diaz has not been the Diaz we saw in Seattle since he was in Seattle. He gave us one off-year—a good one, in 2022—but beyond that, he has been largely underwhelming, especially considering what we thought we were getting, and what he is being paid, which is about $20 million a year. Raisel Iglesias, never an All-Star, has earned at most $16 million a year...and he has a 206 ERA+ with his current team. Josh Hader, though himself proving to be inconsistent, has a career 161 ERA+, compared to Diaz's 138, and he has never earned more than $19 million in a year. Diaz is proving to be a waste of money. I don't say "trade him," but see him for what he is. He's just not as good as he once was. He is post Anaheim Francisco Rodriguez (a significant step down). It is what it is. And since he's been so up-and-down throughout his career, that's a pretty rough trend, isn't it? A trend of inconsistency is no sign of greatness. If we can't expect him to be great from one year to the next, how great can he actually be? Timmy Trumpet is cool and fun and brings energy. But when a guy is a letdown, he's a letdown. And Diaz certainly hasn't lived up to the hype. 2022 was just one year....he's been with us for six now.

That game was morose.

Trends result in totals, so I'm not wrong. List of Mets closers by NY career ERA+ (min. 100 G and 15 SV): Addison Reed: 194 Billy Wagner: 183 Armando Benitez: 159 Adam Ottavino: 148 Jesse Orosco: 133 John Franco: 132 Braden Looper: 131 Francisco Rodriguez: 129 Edwin Diaz: 126 Skip Lockwood: 126 Randy Myers: 126 Bob Apodaca: 123 Jeurys Familia: 119 Doug Sisk: 117 Seth Lugo: 115 Ron Taylor: 115 Tug McGraw: 114 Danny Frisella: 113 Roger McDowell: 112 Neil Allen: 102 Bobby Parnell: 102 Jenrry Mejia: 99 Anthony Young: 98 People are buying the illusion and hype of Diaz, but he is right there with Myers and Lockwood. Slightly worse than F-Rod, slightly better than Apodaca. Good names, worth remembering, but not worth all the fanfare that Diaz has received. Myers can't even get into the Mets Hall of Fame project I run on another website, which is as big Hall as it gets, so maybe Diaz isn't that great, after all. I'd say you're grasping at straws because you invested a lot of "liking" and "hope" into Diaz and you don't want to be let down. I want to be wrong, but I've called the demise of A LOT of Mets long before many fans were willing to admit it, so I have a history of being correct.

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: McNeil's ass gets sat again I thought he'd turn it on again this year. He's going grey at 32 so maybe he's just aging faster than everyone else.

Edgy MD wrote: He missed all of last season. He hasn't missed this year. That, by definition, isn't consistent. You are showing totals and not a year-to-year trend. Missing a season isn't a symptom of decline? Well in that case, why don't guys just play every three years then? (And while we're debating the decline or lack thereof of Diaz, make sure to check out "Guess that Met" and make a few guesses.)