Ceetar

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm also way high on Hairston and Rauch and low on Tejada. Hmmm that seems right to me.

Vic Sage wrote: you're harder on Santana than ANY of us so far. but that's ok, that's why we do this. To wash out the "outliers". I thought long and hard about Santana. I could've talked myself into ranking him anywhere from 24 to 15. Based on his final numbers, he should be toward the bottom of that range, maybe lower (as low as 10? maybe). But his numbers were skewed by some really bad starts toward the end, where he was clearly pitching through injury. And any guy who gives us the 1st no-hitter in our history gets the benefit of the doubt from me. it's certainly interesting. If it was just about this season, and there was no other Mets years involved, we'd still put Johan Santana pretty high on the "greatest Mets" list just off the no-hitter. The numbers look bad but the numbers were really good through June. But the bad numbers coincide with the Mets collapse too so they did have a pretty big contribution, regardless of the injury bit. (We don't give Reed Johnson enough hate btw) I need to get this bit done myself now that I'm at work and have power here and all that.

Edgy DC wrote: Ah, don't indulge Yankee fatalism. It's not that guys in decline suddenly get good when the Yankees sign them (cough! Pedro Feliciano, cough!), but rather that they have the resources to quickly bury folks when they don't. they sign enough hay to get the needles they need. wonder if they can still afford to do that.

Frayed Knot wrote: Yeah, that would be the team that beat them in spite of Valverde, not because of him. Soriano landing in Valverde's spot on the roster is a lot more likely than the other way around. . well yeah. I'm not sure If I want to hope the Yankees overpay for a decent reliever and are serious about the luxury tax cap thingy, or if hoping they lose out by picking someone that implodes. You just know they're going to sign Ramon Ramirez for his bounce back year.

Frayed Knot wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Is the difference between him and, say, Bobby Parnell that vast? No, but the Yanquis don't operate on the same sort of logic as the rest of the league. Remember this is the crew that signed Soriano to a 3/35 deal in the first place (over the objections of their GM) strictly for the purpose of being a set-up man and insurance against Mariano getting old before his contract ended. As it turns out they didn't lose a step at the end of games this season after MR screwed up his knee in early May and may have lost the division without him or would have been forced to make a more desperate in-season move. As it stands now they'll make some kind of move to replace him and if Rivera doesn't come back they're suddenly looking at David Robertson as the closer rather than as the 7th inning man. I think they believed he was the closer of the future two years ago but some of the shine came off him in 2012. Jose Valverde is a free agent. On the team that beat them.

either way it's one less 'lock' roster spot for the Yankees and given the volatile nature of relievers, one more chance for them to wind up with a bad one.

Ooh, too tempting! Terms: For High School and College students only.

Edgy DC wrote: If defensive metrics aren't winning your confidence regarding which guys are getting to balls that might elude other guys, they should be able to tell by now, with some accuracy, how effective an outfielder's arm is --- not only regarding the guys you nail but the guys you freeze because they'd never run on you. Jay Bruce, for instance, had eight assists, an unimpressive number. Is he chilling the opposition from taking the extra base or failing to nail them when they do? The truth is out there. Problems of sample size abound of course. How many legitimate first to third decisions are there in which the ball is hit to RF? How much of it's because of third base coach? (A real aggressively bad coach could cause a lot of his runners thrown out, bonus to outfielders in his division) You have to break it down by outs too, since a runner is less likely to go (and more likely to have a head start and make it easily) with two outs. But surely you should look at defensive numbers, including the arm stuff. It's better than randomly guessing based on a handful of games you've seen, or errors, or genie, or however they do this. ARM (outfield arm runs): Outfielder�s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. A fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases. Bruce had a -1.7 ARM last year, and has a total of 5.2 over his career. Duda, had a -5.7 last year and -9.2 overall. I'm not sure exactly how the stat is calculated but it seems Bruce is fairly average. There were 250 balls in his zone last year (120 for Duda) so 1.7 might be a percentage? perhaps he allowed an extra base or missed an out compared to the mean on ~5 balls over the course of the year. (edit, clearly it says it's the amount of runs. so -1.7 is particually nothing. )

I'll be there.

Edgy DC wrote: smg58 wrote: Paulino minus steroids turned out to be overvalued (at least by the Mets), and calling Quintanilla undervalued would require believing he ever had value in the first place. If they're looking for a market inefficiency, that's a dead end. I don't think that's conclusive. Colorado, for instance, has done pretty well getting production out of post-disgrace Jason Giambi for pennies on the dollar. Melky is definitely coming down in value from what he would've gotten if he hadn't missed the last 50 games. It'd be dumb not to try to take advantage of that, particularly given it's an area of need for the Mets. Grabbing him for just his 'prime' years for a reduced rate? buy buy buy.

smg58 wrote: I honestly thought at the time that Ramon Ramirez would more than make up for the difference between Pagan and Torres. That's a mistake I hope to learn from. And I hope Alderson learns from it too. I didn't like the trade, but I understood it. In retrospect, I don't think I make it. Alderson talked about how we got pitching quantity but not quality in 2011, and this trade was trading a higher quality player for a higher quantity of players not as good. (or at least, not as valuable.) It's all a wash now, as Torres is the only player of the three even remotely under team control. Unless you think, and I would lean this way, that Pagan will not accept a $13 million one year offer and then you get a draft pick for him.

oh man, the Rockies are interviewing Jerry Manuel. excuse me while I snicker to myself.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Ceetar wrote: Sherman basically made that up. I doubt he heard more than "He's probably worth more than Zimmerman" and extrapolated from there. Also, he talks about the option deadline and then implies that the Mets would just add it in anyway and make the extension beyond that instead of including it, bumping up the figure even higher. It's sloppy math at best I don't think Sherman makes stuff up. I'd say the deal goes down within the time frame and more or less near the figures, he mentions. did he mention a deadline? he implied that if they did sign him before the option pickup they'd add the option in anyway making the deadline a moot point. I bet he signs for less than that, at least less committed. maybe option years at the end get it to 8 (2020) years.

Edgy DC wrote: Well, I imagine he did speak to 10 officials outside the organization. What authority, expertise, or knowledge they have is certainly a matter of conjecture. yeah, that's what I meant. Did you talk to them and say "What would you give Wright, right now?" or did he simply ask how much do you think he'll get, the same way we speculate what he's worth here?

Edgy DC wrote: Not funny. I'm just wondering if it was the right move to pick this guy up or to try and place him and his conspirators under surveillance. That's some scary madness. that's what we were debating among a group of friends of mine. Seems like if you let him go just a wee bit farther you could've gotten him for conspiracy to commit murder, whereas you might not get anything now. so ponders my lawyer friend anyway, obviously would depend on just how much info/data they have and what he actually recorded.

Sherman basically made that up. I doubt he heard more than "He's probably worth more than Zimmerman" and extrapolated from there. Also, he talks about the option deadline and then implies that the Mets would just add it in anyway and make the extension beyond that instead of including it, bumping up the figure even higher. It's sloppy math at best

still closer to Tejada than Kiner though.

Edgy DC wrote: Thole didn't get the job done this year, but the idea that the turnip truck should automatically promise improvements is folly. Probably not in Thole's case, but Alderson will have to pick some turnips for the team.

Vic Sage wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: Sounds like he's worth a shot. Hopefully he'll play well enough to at least breathe on Josh Thole's neck a little. If he can't play well enough to breath down Thole's neck, then he lacks a pulse. I wouldn't hold my breath on this one.

Swan Swan H wrote: We're going to Florida to see a concert a friend is presenting on March 9, and we're looking to work some Spring Training into the mix. Hopefully we'll see the schedule soon and we can make our plans. according to that preliminary schedule, Mets are in Lakeland on the 8th. Tigertown is pretty cool.

Frayed Knot wrote: Sabathia has surgery to remove a bone spur in his throwing arm but nothing more serious than that But suddenly Mariano Rivera isn't so sure about coming back next season despite his initial claims to "write in down in big letters". He had to repair something at the end of.. last season? or the one before in his knee. warning signs perhaps. I saw Cashman's comments on Rivera's comments spun both ways. Likely coming back, likely not.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: RH hitting, 28-year-old catcher/1B claimed on waivers from the Cubs; had cups of joe with them this year and the A's in 2011. Pretty good power in the minors (career 800 OPS). Attended same school as Zach Lutz and was coached by Zach Lutz' dad, Yogi. Sounds like Nickeas's worth nightmare, a backup catcher who can hit. Pacific Coast League, so that 800 is suspect. but..still probably a reasonable backup type guy.

Pagan stolen base gets everyone free tacos.

Ashie62 wrote: Ceetar wrote: MFS62 wrote: Don't know if the rules have changed under the new CBA, but under the old one, if you want to re-sign your own players once they are declared FAs, you can't do it until well into Spring Training (forget the date). Later they were changed under the previous ones even. Thought it was 5/10 something like that, but no restrictions now.

MFS62 wrote: Don't know if the rules have changed under the new CBA, but under the old one, if you want to re-sign your own players once they are declared FAs, you can't do it until well into Spring Training (forget the date). Later they were changed under the previous ones even.