If I go to work two days in a row commuting ninety miles, I may create a pattern where each time, the first part of my commute costs $20 in gas and tolls, and the second third costs $15, and the third part costs $10. As I go through the commute, I am seeing progressively less expensive commuting conditions. Overall, during those two days, I am spending, on average, $0.50 a mile. If, on the third day, my boss calls me after the first part of my commute, and tells me that they are opting to close for the day and that I should not come in, I have spent $20 to go thirty miles, or $0.67 per mile. You can conclude that I am having trouble with my third commute, because my rate stat went up, but that would not be a logical conclusion, because my third commute is incomplete and I never got to continue through the less expensive parts of my commute. Similarly, if I am not a commuter, but an MLB starting pitcher, and I go through the Mets order two times, I may create another pattern. Each time, I give up a double to Soto batting third, a single to McNeil batting fifth, and a walk to Baty batting seventh. As such, as I go through the order, I tend to face progressively weaker batters, and so I do progressively better. I have a .708 OPS against those first two times through the order. I repeat my pattern the third time through the order, but now I am on a shorter leash. After the third double to Soto, my manager pulls me. I never get a chance to face those lesser batters, and my record shows that I have a 1.000 OPS against on that third trip through — even though my performance was the same. You can conclude that I am having trouble with my third third time through the order, because my rate stat went up, but that would not be a logical conclusion, because my third time through the order is incomplete, and I never got to continue through the weaker parts of the Mets lineup. I do believe there likely is something to be learned from measuring how a pitcher does his third time through the order, but I believe it is being measured (or, at least, reported) wrong. We are not correcting for the pitcher always facing the strongest fraction of a lineup the third time through the order. [FIMG=437]https://facts.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/26-facts-about-tolls-1739855071.jpg[/FIMG] [FIMG=303]https://wallpapers.com/images/hd/baseball-pitcher-in-action-jpg-8hkg6jcy4d7sqdsg.jpg[/FIMG]