Frayed Knot

At least that's what I was hearing [u:347hnxgy]from the Cincy announcers[/u:347hnxgy] who claimed that's what they read about the ground rules in Busch III, although it's not like they have local inside knowledge either. The weird part is that those ad signs are not only above the wall but slightly set back as well so there's a little 'shelf' between the two where the ball could get stuck so maybe it's a GR double if it sits up there and doesn't come down but that's obviously not what this ball did. In all it seems like a screwed up design if nothing else. 2-zip Rockies in the 3rd

Apparently those advertising signs, above and also slightly in back of the regular wall, are in play and it's the railing behind both of them that determines HR/not and also in-play/not so that hit was a live ball. But, yeah, having the losing manager chase the umps down the runway in a case like while the home team dog-piles at the plate and the cameras and microphones are coming out to do post-game interviews is one of many problems that apparently no one anticipated when they slapped together this replay rule.

Looked to be in play all the way to me. Reds just messed up both ends of the relay throw.

Baltimore's win in Toronto eliminates the Yanx from WC contention even as they lead Boston late in their game. Always a cause for celebration. Wonder how Yanx fans feel about all the roster dumping they did in mid-season coupled with being eliminated 4 days from season's end? I suspect many are going to think it justified because they assume they've set themselves up for a string of pennants that's sure to follow with the haul they got for Beltran/Miller/Chapman, etc., but you know what often happens when you assume ...

3-1 Cards, end of 5

It was supposed to be rookie Jake Thompson's start but they've opted to shut him down for innings limits. They had previously DL'd several other of their young guns (Nola, Eflin), had just one day off over the last 13 days of the season, and so essentially find themselves with just two rested and ready starters to cover the final three days. Not an ideal situation, but hardly a big crime either.

Ceetar wrote: any love for Plawecki over Rene? Based on 125 plate appearances since July 1st vs 4 PA since July 1st, and throws well vs throws like wounded chicken? Ummmmmm, I going to go with 'No' on this one.

Frayed Knot wrote: OK, here's what I got: OUT = 1.95% BP's updated numbers: Mets = 98.2 (aka: OUT = 1.8%) ... and my numbers were two hours earlier and on my first try. BP: Giants = 68.5% Cards = 33.2%

OK, here's what I got: IN = 95.06% OUT = 1.95% 3-Way Tie = 1.76% 2-Way Tie for 2nd WC w/Giants = 0.29% 2-Way Tie for 2nd WC w/Cards = 0.94% That may not be the only answer, but it's my answer and I'm stickin' to it!!

We should be at around 95% at this point, and if BP is giving any kind of weight to the idea that the Mets are closing out vs the weak Phillies while the Giants and Cards have the relatively stronger Dodgers & Pirates (as opposed to my simpler method which essentially treats every outcome as a 50/50 proposition) then our odds will likely be a few clicks higher still. btw, both games of interest today are 6 PM local starts -- 7:15 EDT first pitch in StL; 9:10 EDT first pitch in SF -- so we've got a good chance of knowing the results prior to shut-eye tonight.

Y'know, really, WTF Kimbrel?!? Actually Kimbrel wasn't even the one who served up the Granny to Teixeira, but he set up the whole inning by deciding that the Sox potential division clinching night was the one where he was going to suck. They wound up clinching anyway via the Blue Jay loss, but still ... handed a three-run lead to protect he starts the bottom of the 9th: Single, Walk, WP, Walk, run-scoring Walk Out he goes, in comes Joe Kelly who gets the first two batters then serves up the game-losing GS Pretty much doesn't matter in the long run as the Sox got their clincher and the Yanx are dead in the water anyway. The best they can do is force a play-in game for WC #2 and that's only if they run the table while the O's are losing out. That the O's & Yanx play each other starting Friday makes both those things happening at the same time more possible but not only do they have to win their finale vs the BoSox today then sweep the O's (if and only if Balt loses to Toronto today), but then they also have to have Detroit go no better than 1-3, AND have the Mariners go no better than 2-2, AND have the Astros lose at least once more. Blue Jays: vs BAL, @ BOS x 3 Yanx: 1 vs BOS, BAL x 3 Orioles: @ TOR, @ NYY x 3 Tigers: vs CLE, @ ATL x 3 Mariners: vs OAK x 4 Astros: off today, @ LAA x 3

NYM 85.9% SFG 69.4% STL 44.7% Yeah, something's screwy there because those numbers are barely changed from the night before and Wednesday's results should have produced a huge shift with so few games remaining. FWIW via the process of just seeing how many combinations put us in or out, the math is pretty simple as there are now exactly 100 possibilities and we're in on 92, out in just two, and in some sort of tie in the other six. Following some intense calculations I estimated those odds at right around 92%, 2%, and 6% - With a sweep in Philly we're not only in but in via the #1 slot - With two wins in Philly it's the same deal because that would eliminate the Cards and we'd hold the tie-breaker w/the Giants even if they ran the table - We can now even go 1-2 in Philly and still be guaranteed of playing past Sunday. We'd be in via 23 combinations of Cardinal & Giant outcomes but forced into a tie in two others: 1) Cards win their final 4 while Giants go 3-1 which means three-way tie 2) Cards win 4 and Giants win 4 in which case we'd tie the Cards and play-in vs them for the right to play the Giants - If we take an oh-fer in Philly then we still get in free and clear via 19 of the 25 combos of SF/StL games. There are the only two scenarios where we're out: 1) Cards win four, Giants win three; 2) Cards win four, Giants win four and there are four combos which will throw us into a tie of one sort or another: 1) C = 3 Wins, G = 2 (3-Way T) 2) C = 4, G = 2 (Tie w/G for 2nd) 3) C = 3, G = 3 (Tie w/C for 2nd) 4) C = 3, G = 4 (Tie w/C for 2nd)

And the Rox are now up 2-0 in top 7

2-1 Cincy in the 6th

Zvon wrote: This game is flyin' by. Only by comparison to recent games. It's still going to be right around 3 hours or a couple of ticks over. That used to be considered long.

MFS62 wrote: Zvon wrote: I just wonder if I should put it to a poll. For the record, who is your 2016 Mets Most Valuable Player? Make it a poll. And don't forget to include Walker, who kept the team going while others were slumping. It'll be interesting to see the poll results versus the Schaeffer results. We do a top-30 Mets list each winter. Join the fun ... it don't cost nothin'

MFS62 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: I suspect the off day tomorrow is part of the reason for the quick hook. Not quite sure why it comes vs the light hitting Mathis ... Not sure if Terry has a pitch count thing (he threw about 80) but he is cautious about letting a young pitcher go more than twice through the lineup. He has mentioned it on a few of the recent post game shows I've seen. The only one he's let go longer was Gsellman in his last start. Except that the Marlins were past the middle of the order and Lugo had already faced the big boys three times each. I don't really have a problem with the quick hook, was just a bit curious as to the specific timing of it.

I've used this line once already but this mound conference with the Marlins pitching coach may be my last chance to use it this season: 'You know nothing Juan Nieves'

I suspect the off day tomorrow is part of the reason for the quick hook. Not quite sure why it comes vs the light hitting Mathis ...

Reds notched the first two runs in St Loouie, still batting in top 3

Zvon wrote: I did NOT have a feeling that Duda would be scratched. Nice poke by Loney. Since his replacement hit it we're awarding you partial credit on the prediction.

The late lineup switch comes through again. Yet another example of the genius that is Terry Collins.

The lone run off him in the September 1st game was a Jay Bruce HR

We've faced this Urena guy twice this year and haven't hit him either time. - 1 R on 4 Hits over 6 innings on July 24 (Mets won 3-0) and then for some variety - 1 R on 4 Hits over 6 innings on Sept 1 (Mets lost 6-4) Other than that he's been more than hittable to other teams (5.95 ERA) and has been a mess in three of his four starts since the Sept 1st game vs us although oddly shut the Dodgers out on four hits through 8-2/3 in the other start ... so he's pretty much an erratic (near) rookie who we probably shouldn't even try to project on any given night.

I can only imagine how big an asshole I would had been if I had millions of dollars as a 24 y/o.