Frayed Knot

seawolf17 wrote: The Rochester Red Wings were promoting this heavily today, pushing their "Mets Pack" for when Syracuse comes to town. In general, the non-baseball segment of the sports media takes Tebow news a lot more seriously than does the baseball corner of that business (I've already heard this news reported several times and mocked at least once just today alone). But the one segment within baseball that doesn't ignore Tebow news is the league opponents that will face him for the upcoming season, even once you're out of the south apparently. This week's 'news' from Brodie is really kind of non-news. Given Tebow's age and late start you have to push him aggressively if there is to be any hope at all of him making it at the highest level. There could also be other factors playing into this such as what other OFs they expect to be where when the season starts, but for the most part you'd think this year would be the make or break one for T.T. so why not AAA? although, if I were 31 and already rich with a lot of free time on my hands during the summer, there are worse things I could imagine than spending it in the minor leagues so maybe his quest will continue beyond this year even if he never gets a 2019 call-up.

Centerfield wrote: I guess, for me, it's unclear whether or not Tebow is genuine in his faith, or if it's a marketing tool. I would have to spend more time catching up on the specifics. And frankly, I don't care enough to dig in any further to find out. No, his faith is genuine. He was born in the Philippines* to missionary parents who were doing their work there at the time. I don't recall him marketing his faith much as a player. Now he certainly did nothing to hide it but, aside from the standard hero athlete "writing" a book on his then (23?) year old life experiences, I don't recall a lot of 'selling' involved. The thing about his religion (or anyone's for that matter) is that it became a focal point for both sides to the point to where you couldn't have a legitimate debate over his merits (or lack thereof) as a pro QB (following a stellar college career) without one side complaining that his image was the only thing getting him consideration while those on the other saw every criticism of him as stemming from him as a Christian rather than as a player. IIRC, the pro-life ad -- him and his mother relating that by NOT choosing abortion when some suggested she should ... and look what a fine boy she had instead -- was a one-off which ran during the SB pre-game. * (one L, two Ps ... who knew?)

Chili is also a rarity in baseball in that he hails from the island of Jamaica, a much more likely place to find sprinters or reggae singers than baseballers. BB-Ref lists only four Jamaican-born ML'ers. Davis I knew, Devon White I didn't, the other two I don't remember. All four attended U.S. high schools: Davis in LA, pitcher Justin Masterson (who's white) in Ohio, and the other two in NYC; White (who's not white) at Park West HS (CPW & 103rd) and Rolando Roomes (Beach Channel HS in Rockaway)

Chili was also a switch-hitter (despite the above cards showing him strictly as a lefty) ... for whatever that's worth as a hitting coach.

Zunino was a one-time #3 overall draft pick by the M's (2012) out of U-Florida and hit well right out of the box in high-A & AA so there'll always be someone willing to take a chance that that talent is lurking around hidden somewhere just waiting to bust out. Well, there won't always be someone thinking that, but at least until he's 30 there will be and he'll be just 28 next spring. Smith, in addition to being MLB's best Mallex ever, is more a slap and run kind of guy but (looking it up) he had himself a nice year for Tampa in what was his first full(ish) season (480 ABs) at age 25 after not looking like a whole lot during his Braves debut two years prior. P.S. it's also a five player deal in all, not just Zunino for Smith straight-up

Joel Sherman talks to Buck Showalter in order to get the full scoop on Manny Machado.

And here, as if on cue, is an article on Donaldson examining his plusses and minuses.

Centerfield wrote: Admittedly I'm not a football fan, but I really don't understand why this guy is such a story. Tebow the phenomenon, as opposed to merely Tebow the person or Tebow the athlete, is largely a creation of ESPN.

The Altobelli Interregnum -- one of Robert Ludlum's lesser known books.

Ceetar wrote: Ramos? bottom 4% of the league the last two years in sprint speed. The lower 3 must be in wheelchairs.

Lefty Specialist wrote: Well, they already know who won everything, so they take the top three votegetters and stoke up the excitement. And when there's a year with four or more possible winners (plenty of seasons have seen more than three players receive 1st place votes) it stokes down excitement. Can you stoke excitement down? Probably, although not with a minor present

I think it goes without saying that there are reasons to be reluctant on a 245 (at least!) pound catcher with a history of knee and leg injuries. He totaled barely 600 PAs between 2017 & 2018 combined and strapped 'em on for more than 100 games four times in his career and 130+ just once, back in 2016 when he played the full season but then missed the playoffs due to, of course, a late season leg injury. On the plus side he can really hit and throw and, at 32 next August, isn't quite as old as I would have guessed. Downside (besides, y'know, the rusty hinges)? -- In a foot race with the Molina brothers he'd finish in a dead heat for last with Benji. And that's Benji now not Benji during his career.

This Puma article, even though titled 'Mets Fianlly Ready to Give Alonso a Chance', doesn't really say much other than that he'll be invited to Spring Training and given a chance to win the job. Well duh! But it has Brodie saying nice things about him including all the catch phrases like 'held in high regard by the org', 'works hard', 'made strides defensively', etc. so it's certainly not a negative piece. So they're "going to be open-minded" about how they plan to cover 1st base next year.

Predictions: Acuna, Ohtani, Counsell, Melvin, deGrom, Snell, Yelich, Betts

I still don't particularly like the idea that they do this: pre-announce that only these three candidates can possibly win each award, and I'm not sure what prompted them to adopt this strategy over the last few years. But here ya go [u:1r4lichh]Rookie of the Year[/u:1r4lichh] (to be announced November 12): NL: Ronald Acuna - OF, Braves; Walker Buehler - P, Dodgers; Juan Soto - OF, Nationals AL: Miguel Andujar - 3B, Yankees; Shohei Ohtani - P/DH, Angels; Glaybar Torres - 2B, Yankees [u:1r4lichh]Manager of the Year[/u:1r4lichh] (Nov 13) NL: Bud Black, Rockies; Craig Counsell, Brewers; Brian Snitker, Braves AL: Kevin Cash, Rays; Alex Cora, Red Sox; Bob Melvin, A's [u:1r4lichh]Cy Young[/u:1r4lichh] (Nov 14) NL: Jacob deGrom, Mets; Max Scherzer, Nationals; Aaron Nola, Phillies AL: Corey Kluber, Indians; Justin Verlander, Astros; Blake Snell, Rays [u:1r4lichh]Most Valuable Player[/u:1r4lichh] (Nov 15) NL: Nolan Arenado - 3B, Rockies; Javier Baez - 2B/SS, Cubs; Christian Yelich - OF, Brewers AL: Mookie Betts - OF, Red Sox; Jose Ramirez - 3B, Indians; Mike Trout - OF, Angels

Mex17 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: If I'm going to add an OF I'd want it to be someone who can REALLY play CF. Assuming he can stay on the field, we already have that guy. It would be nice if we can add enough righthanded offense in other spots so that we can carry him lower in the order and keep his glove in there regularly (particularly in his $9 million season). I mentioned Lagares but this would mean we expect him to be penciled in to play every day (or mostly so) - which I don't see or that Jones would be playing in front of Nimmo and/or Conforto (and eventually Cespedes) at one of the corners - which I see even less or that the 33 y/o Jones is ready to sign up for a bench/fill-in role - which I highly doubt

If I'm going to add an OF I'd want it to be someone who can REALLY play CF. We've already got a multitude of corner guys who can fake it there for short periods, but none, aside from Juan L., who you'd trust there on a regular basis.

Clearly the .500 season (82-80), on the heels of projections about them running away with the division, was his fault.

The scuttlebutt has been that he's not merely below average with the glove but downright bad. Of course you can get away with that at 1st base to a certain degree if you hit, but to do that you really have to hit and the main thing that's tilted me toward in the 'anti' column on Alonso is mostly just a push-back to the 'grass is greener' theory that some here have seemingly adopted with him where they assume he close to a lock to do so. In my mind the best case scenario is that he's still at least a half season away. Let him show that he keep this up while improving on his glove (and maybe also on his 30+% K-rates) and if he's doing all that thru June then he'll force them to make some kind of move depending on what they've got going on at 1B in Queens.

I honestly don't know what to think about Alonso. On the one hand I can make the CF case that he's a masher waiting to happen; a .290 hitter w/a good walk rate (.091)* where 48% of his minor league hits have gone for XBs Then on the other I wouldn't object to trading NOW!!!! and let his weaknesses get exposed by better pitching and sea level humidity in some other organization, preferably for a guy who mans a position where we don't already have other options and that isn't as easy to fill. I guess the bottom line is that I think he has value but isn't invaluable and certainly not a 'can't miss'. This is all complicated by the fact that none of us has seen him play outside of an AB or two in Prospect games or hi-light clips and likely wouldn't recognize him if he walked onto our elevator with a 'Hi, my name is Peter Alonso' tag on his shirt. You just hope the new administration doesn't adopt a Steve Phillipsian attitude where all prospects are suspects and therefore fodder as throw-ins to get whatever flavor of the month veteran is on the market at that moment. The key to handling prospects is the pick out the right ones and deal off the rest. Hopefully the club has a decent idea of which he'll be. * .065-.070 is about average

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Manny wasn't eligible for the QO because he was trading during the season, correct? Yup. That's one of several conditions that get one out of QO jail. Having been offered a QO in a prior year is another. Muffy, for instance, is ineligible due to both conditions, and probably also to teams fearing his knee(s) condition.

Qualifying Offers ain't what they used to be, either in the quantity offered or in the compensation they return or what they demand (depending on whether you're signing one or losing one). Also the rules are more restrictive. If interested in all the details read here cuz it's a bit too complicated to just Donna Summarize them quickly (revenue sharing vs not, luxury exceeding vs not, protected picks vs not, etc.). Anyway, there are only seven players who were offered the QO amount by their existing team -- Patrick Corbin, Yasmani Grandal, Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, AJ Pollack, Hyun-Jin Ryu, so you may want to take that into consideration if you're going about planning your ideal team.

smg58 wrote: I'm not sure if Trevor Rosenthal was even on anybody's list, but the Nats just signed him for one year and $7.5M plus incentives. He missed all of 2018 due to TJS, and I had totally forgotten about him. Man, how many 'name' closers and set-up men have the Nats traded for and/or signed over the last three years or so? Seems like maybe a dozen (tho probably fewer)* and the back end of their pen has remained a mess all the while. * So discounting home-grown types, I find: (2015) Papelbon; (2016) Ollie Perez, Matt Belisle, Mark Melancon, Mat Latos; (2017) Sean Doolittle, Joe Blanton, Matt Albers; (2018) Shawn Kelley, Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler, Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera And now add Rosenthal and who knows who else for this coming year. Meanwhile, they bailed on Blake Treinan (for Madson & Doolittle) and he went on to have a helluva season in Oakland. Now one could take issue with some of these as "name" closers and/or set-up men; some had been but no longer were by the time the Nats got a hold of them. But, still, that's a lot of names for a lot of holes and yet a lot of holes still remain.

smg58 wrote: Kershaw is already worth less than that. True. I suspect the days of Kershaw being KERSHAW!!! are over, at least on a consistent 25-30 starts/year basis. On the other hand he's still likely to be pretty darn good more often than not, so if you're the Dodgers and are presented with the choices of: A) No Kershaw at all (he opts out) or Kershaw at a super-expensive rate for two seasons thru age 32 (status quo) or C) Kershaw at a slightly reduced super-expensive rate for three seasons thru age 33 and you've got no power to force him into either options A or B, then C isn't a bad fall-back position.

Centerfield wrote: But Miami won't. Because someone else will offer multiple Alonso-level prospects like they did for Yelich. Which, of course, was a large part of my point: that Alonso straight-up is a good deal because Realmuto is worth more, particularly to us who need proven catching more than maybe first-basing. That said, Realmuto won't garner the same level of haul that Yelich earned Miami. Yelich was and is better (even more so a year later!!!), was also younger and under new team control for four years at known rates, as opposed to two years of TBD, since the acquiring team inherited him on an existing pre-FA contract. Plus we still don't know how the four Brewer prospects who went the other way will turn out. The OF we saw a handful of times this year, Lewis Brinson, was the top rated of the bunch and, so far, the only one to see the majors (none of the others seem all that close). And while he's athletic & promising with a ton of range defensively, he also hit just a Buck-99 over 400 PAs and K'd in 1/3 of his ABs during his rookie season. So, yeah, it'll take Alonso-plus to get JTR, but he's a good fit for what the Marlins need and are looking for so he's not a bad starting point and I hope Brodie et al are at least looking into what it would take.