Frayed Knot

59-FIFTY or Fight!!

Nah, the men in that study are merely watching where they're watching because they're admiring his hip-turn and the power that results from it while hoping to transfer that same action to their weekend softball and golf games. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

No one really hit Wagner all that hard (except for the one that almost decapitated him of course) he was just missing with his slider - or maybe it was that change he's supposedly been messing with ... I wasn't really watching that closely. 'Nother HR for Green. Hard single for Milledge in what I think was his only AB

It was first reported that way a month or so ago -- but then Benson said he wanted to try the rehab route first before committing to surgery. This latest item sounds like confirmation that the rest & rehab alternative isn't going to cut it.

It's fine. If someone misses out because they weren't around for 3 or 4 days (at which point they'd forget the details of the game anyway) or because their "system" is having trouble figuring out how the in-game Range Factor for each position matches up with the square root of 'OBA/Runners moved up', well then they don't get a vote in that game.

Or you could ... oh I dunno, maybe watch the game and award points based on your observations.

Josh Hamilton is an interesting story to watch. He was the #1 overall draft pick by Tampa in the 2000 draft - snatched up just ahead of that other Florida team choosing Josh Beckett - and then was Baseball America's #1 prospect the next year as they gushed all over his talent; hitting, running, throwing (could have been a pitcher as well as OF), power, etc., before it all drained away in a torrent of personal problems and drug use. Left on the scrap heap by most observers, Cincy grabbed him in the Rule 5 draft this winter on what seemed like a lark, but it's starting to look like he could stick.

One would hope that prospect Felix Pie is playing in the Cubbies' game today. Although, sadly for jokesters everywhere, he pronounces his name: pee-AY

The thing about PECOTA - both its strength and weakness - is that it depends on 'comparables', those players who match up best not only in stats but also in age, position, and even body type. Hearing as often as we did last year about how unique Reyes's 2006 season was it's tough to figure that there are all that many comparables and even tougher to figure those few would have improved upon a season like that at that age. That said, it's not all that hard to see some "regression" after such a big jump. It also shouldn't be all that big a cause for concern if he did. ARod went from; .359 / .141 / .641 w/36 HRs in the year he turned 21 - to .300 / .350 / .496 w/23 HRs the following season and it certainly didn't foreshadow a crash & burn (we all knw he didn't crash & burn until he got to NYC)

If I were in charge of picking an over/under number that I think would get sufficient action on both sides I'd go with around 23 or 24

From the NYTimes: METS LOOK AT DOMINICAN TEENAGER Jose Jose, the acclaimed teenager from the Dominican Republic assumed his stance in the batter’s box yesterday at the aged Municipal Stadium in Pompano Beach, Fla., where the Texas Rangers once conducted spring training. Nearby stood Ismael Cruz, the Mets’ director of international scouting. The player, Jos� Jos�, a 16-year-old outfielder, has drawn the interest of a number of baseball’s big-money teams. The Mets were among the first teams to have a private workout with Jos�. On Monday he drove one ball over the wall in right-center field and hit an assortment of line drives. But he also had his share of foul balls and routine grounders. Jos� was meeting some of his fellow prospects for the first time at the Playball Baseball Academy, where Fred Ferreira, a baseball scout, operates his Win International agency. “He’s a very interesting kid,” Cruz said after watching Jos� field, throw, run and hit over an hour and half period. “He’s got a good bat.” Ferreira is making plans to have other teams see Jos�. Seattle and Anaheim are on the list, as are the Yankees. The Red Sox may be ready to sign him now. They are the only team that visited Jos�’s native San Pedro de Macoris in the Dominican Republic to see him work out.

While we're on the subject of magazines, whodafuck is SI kidding with last week's cover story about how global warming and its affect on how sports will be - And already are being!! - played. Parts of the multi-story piece are understandable; thinking of building more 'Green-friendly' stadiums in the future, and also some stuff on golf course planning & mgmt. But they also threw in a bunch of stuff alarmist headlines including wondering about bigger stadiums to hold batted balls traveling further (Could Mays have caught the Wertz ball today?!?!) and a cover photo of Dontrelle Willis up to his waist in water in the middle of a diamond. Now I realize they didn't mean that picture to be taken literally, but it sure smells like they were under orders to do a 'Ripped from the Headlines' story from their Time Inc. parent corp.

"and about 75 today ... still beating guys up, out-racing young thugs, etc." Otherwise known as the 'Barnaby Jones' syndrome.

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Non-K outs can move runners ... but probably not as often as some fans think. Just looking at Wright's Ks vs LoDuca's: Wright's 113 Ks need to be reduced to 98 just to normalize his ABs to LoDuca's [113 : 592 = 98 : 512], so LoDuca's 38 Ks in 512 ABs is 60 fewer than Wright would have produced. * But only some of those extra 60 "contacts" (21 figuring on Reyes's 35% OBA) would have come with Reyes on base * then eliminate those outs which weren't enough to move up a runner; pop-ups, force-outs, short flys, etc. * and scratch all those that came with two outs * then add in a double demerit for GiDPs which would NOT have occured w/a K ... and you're probably down to single digits. You'd need to go into P-b-P data to figure out how many actually occured. But even if you figure there's some element of skill in it; that a batter like LoDuca can selectively "steer" his productive outs towards those situations where they'd do some good, we're probably not looking at more than a dozen or so more runners moved up via outs as opposed to what a higher K guy would have produced. And is that difference going to make up for the 50 pts of OBA and 100 or more of SLG that you're giving away?

Once he finally got onto these shores, Soler set up housekeeping in the Norfolk area where he presumably still lives. That - and Duquette if he's still interested - would make Orioles/Norfolk a logical choice if he's free to strike his own deal.

Vargas started today in place of El Ducky who they had throw in a simulated game today instead (no word if he suffered any simulated injuries). Officially the reason was so he could avoid the lengthy bus ride - which probably cost the team money when you consider that he likely qualifies for the transit company's senior citizen rate

Supposedly he had lost weight this year (although not a lot from what I could tell) but, yeah, I suspect this has to do either with conditioning or with some other similar butting-of-heads type of issue. For a guy who looked good at least on occasion and was easily and fairly cheaply store-able at AAA for fill-in duty this would be an odd move if it were just due to several shakey ST outings.

]or mgmt doesnt like admitting that a 2 year deal to a 46 year old wasnt the brightest move? I honestly don't think that's the problem. The money's not so much that they just can't eat the remainder and they made no secret about bringing him here as much for the "intangible factor" as for any unique baseball skills he still had. I just hope they recognize if/when the balance tilts to far to the one side.

Mgmt obviously likes Franco, plus he apparently provides some measure of those good ol' intangibles to the bench. It's also not as easy as fans often suggest to simply move the guy to a coaching position. There's a finite number of uniformed coaches allowed so adding him would neccesitate subtracting someone else. On the other hand if he can't hit one would hope they'd find a way to ease him aside somehow. I can't see him not starting the season on the roster but, if this year's first half starts to look like the back half of '06, I could see him playing himself out of a job at some point.

Me suspects Greg is merely having some fun with the 'dress quickly and get outta Dodge' reputations.

]Where do I find Pitches/PA data?I got mine from the Sherman piece I linked in the opening post here, but I now realize I quoted it incorrectly. What Sherman actually said was 2nd lowest in MLB among all those hitting in the 2nd slot In general, The Hardball Times has a good sortable stats section which I find easier to use than ESPN's. LoDcua still doesn't place well when compared to all hitters http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=100&orderBy=pPerPa&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2006&league_filter%5B%5D=2&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit just not quite as low as I previously said.

]He [LoDuca] ran the count deep No he didn't. He saw fewer pitches per/AB than any other hitter in MLB last year other than Placido Polanco (or maybe it was Enrico Polazza)

Today's game was at least the 4th or 5th time that Wright has hit 2nd this Spring, more than any other single choice. Willie insists that nothing's set in stone, but you'd have to figure that it's starting to look like more than just a ST oddity. Joel Sherman makes an excellent case for it in today's NYPost, pointing out, among other things; - LoDuca's relative lack of RBIs depite hitting behind the first player in 19 years to get into scoring position - by himself - over 100 times (via double, triple or steals). - the # of pitches/AB seen by LoDuca vs Wright (near league lowest vs near team high) And, of course, by pointing out that Wright's just a plain better hitter.

Bill Madden in today's NYDN (which for some reason I can't link at the moment) suggests that a lack of discipline is not anything new with Sanchez. Funny how these revelations always come after after the fact. Did reporters not know of this behavior prior to now or did they know and, for some reason, choose to sit on the info? Or, is Madden getting his facts screwed up? ... again!