Frayed Knot

Joel Sherman (taking time off from a vacation or so he claims) attends the press conference for Bay and adds the following observations 1. The Mets were pleasantly surprised early in the offseason at how open Jason Bay was to playing for them. That early read motivated the team to build their offseason strategy around him. Had they gotten a bad vibe early on Bay, the Mets would have recalibrated and made a very strong push for John Lackey. ** Sure doesn't jibe with the supposed "Beruit" comment 2. There has been a lot of buzz in the industry that Omar Minaya favored Matt Holliday much more than Bay, but because of the finances was pushed by ownership to focus on the less-expensive Bay. Minaya insisted that was not true; that he likes both players a great deal. In fact, Minaya said he saw the value of the players as similar, and if they were that close it would be foolish not to take the finances into account. The likelihood is that Holliday will receive a contract for $40 million or more guaranteed than the $66 million assured to Bay. ** judging by the size of the deal Holliday is reported to be getting from St Louie, he probably made the right call 3. Multiple Mets officials said they know the metrics show the opposite, but their scouts contend Bay is a better defender than Holliday. Not only does that dispute statistical findings, but pretty much the scouting perception around the game. So Mets scouts are on the griddle for this one if it turns out that Bay cannot handle the spacious left field at Citi Field. ** be interesting to know what led them to this conclusion, but I'm sure that's proprietary info. Either that or it's pure bullshit 4. One general theme the Mets had in imagining what to do this offseason was the need to make an acquisition that would drop Jeff Francoeur to seventh in the order, a spot they feel his skills more merit. So right now the Mets lineup probably looks something like this: 1. Jose Reyes. 2. Luis Castillo. 3. David Wright. 4. Carlos Beltran. 5. Bay. 6. Daniel Murphy or Carlos Delgado (more on him in a bit). 7. Francoeur. 8. A catcher (still perhaps Bengie Molina, more on him in a moment, too). If I were writing out the Mets� lineup -- especially if they land Delgado and Molina -- this is what I would do: 1. Reyes. 2. Wright. 3. Beltran. 4. Bay. 5. Delgado. 6. Francoeur. 7. Molina. 8. Castillo. Here is why: 1) A huge key to this Mets season is the need to get Wright going again. By hitting Wright between the speed of Reyes and the might of Beltran, he should get plenty of fastballs, plus his patience should help Reyes on the bases. 2) Castillo sees pitches, but he is no threat atop the lineup. I would rather have an opposing pitcher walk a minefield of Reyes/Wright/Beltran/Bay/Delgado as much as possible and not give that pitcher the reprieve of Castillo, who cannot drive the ball for extra bases. 3) Castillo at the bottom of the order at least provides some patience -- prior to the pitcher�s spot -- after Francoeur and Molina, two of the least patient hitters in the majors. I think if Francoeur, Molina and the pitcher are run together, the Mets are setting up a bottom third of the lineup that is going to be retired on 6-7 pitches in total too frequently. ** I tend to think people over-think lineups a lot of times, but I like the fact that they don't see Francoeur as middle of the lineup 5. When the offseason began, the Mets� mindset was to move on from Delgado. And it was not just about how his not-very-athletic 37-year-old body would recover from hip surgery. They also wanted to change the tenor of the clubhouse, where Delgado�s personality could be, at times, dominant. But now that Delgado is playing again in Winter Ball, Mets officials are suddenly sounding very much like an organization that wants him back under a few conditions: 1) He shows he can play multiple days in a row at first base and can move in the field and on the bases without a noticeable limp or impairment. 2) That he is willing to take a contract similar to what Atlanta gave Troy Glaus; about a $2 million base with a chance to make say $8 million or more based on games played. The Mets are worried about the lack of lefty power in their current lineup. And if Delgado is willing to make himself a low financial risk then they would see that a gamble worth taking. Minaya, in particular, remains enamored with Delgado and the rest of the organization is suddenly open-minded to having Delgado return. ** For a Glaus-like deal I'd take him back for a year 6. There is another reason the Mets are more seriously pursuing Delgado. They see it as leverage against Molina. The Mets� thought is that if Delgado shows them he is healthy then they will be less compelled to chase power behind the plate and could, instead, think more about defense with Henry Blanco joined by someone from among the current collection (Chris Coste or Omir Santos; Josh Thole is still probably too raw defensively to be considered to begin the season). Or the Mets could still turn to free agency with a Rod Barajas type or to trade, where they could still weigh Arizona�s Chris Snyder. ** anything that keeps them from over-committing to Molina is fine with me 7. One Mets official flatly said the organization will not budge from its offer to Molina of one year with an option. The Mets cannot see another team that needs a catcher that is willing to go to two years and -- even if there is -- the Mets are leery of giving the bulky, 35-year-old Molina more than one guaranteed year. ** Anything that keeps them from over-committing to Molina is double fine with me 8. The Mets see too many hurdles to a trade for Carlos Zambrano: 1) Their scouting reports on him from last year were that his fastball and changeup were both not as effective as in previous seasons. 2) They sense that Cubs executives are canvassing what teams might be willing to make a trade for Zambrano, but have serious doubts that Zambrano would actually waive his no-trade clause. 3) Zambrano makes $18 million annually for at least the next three years, and even if the Cubs were willing to take Castillo, the Mets do not think that is enough of a financial counterweight. And the Mets do not think the Cubs are willing to eat salary on Zambrano. ** I never believed this talk anyway 9. So without a trade for Zambrano, the Mets are back looking at that mundane group of free-agent starters. The Mets� theory on starters has not changed all offseason. They felt Lackey stood out far and away more than anyone else. But after Lackey there was a pool of indistinguishable starters. They felt it imprudent to jump in early and overpay on Randy Wolf (three years, $29.75 million, Milwaukee) or Jason Marquis (two years, $15 million, Washington) when their scouts could not definitively say that those guys were better than Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro, Jarrod Washburn or Doug Davis. So armed with that theory, the Mets will wait for those starters to drop their prices until a number is reached at which they are comfortable. There is some sentiment in the organization to go for a more talented reclamation project, Ben Sheets or Erik Bedard. But the prevailing group now believes that sure innings is the most needed commodity because of the already fragile condition of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and Oliver Perez. ** once you decide you're out on Lackey I'm fine with bargain hunting among the rest 10. Mets officials say that they have not talked to the Red Sox for weeks about a Castillo for Mike Lowell trade. ** I'm surprised the talks ever went on at all

I saw the quickie Shea-shot too. So many things in that movie were out of place, passing Shea on a Manhattan to Brooklyn train ride was merely one of them.

I was going to ask the same question. I believe it means that folks are reading and tracking those ballots that writers have made public in an attempt to gauge how the votes are leading in advance of tomorrow's announcement.

Gilbert was definitely the most popular Ranger of his time and qualifies as a legend in this town - at least for the minority who follow hockey. It all just seems like a lame attempt at a theme party to me that adds nothing to the presser even among those who 'get it' I think Gilbert being there has more to do with the Wilpons sucking up to the NHL to get next year's New Years Day classic... Probably true.

I've seen articles where guys looked for "pitching to the score" evidence (and specifically for Morris) and found it either bogus or at least as hard to nail down as "clutch". Up the thread a ways I noted the (Newsday's) Ken Davidoff piece where he notes in his dismissal of Morris how it's funny how pitchers who 'pitch to the score' always seem to be those on good hitting teams whereas the same guy backed by a weak lineup will be labeled as flawed because he's always pitching 'just well enough to lose'.

The signing bonus is prorated for the purposes of evaluating the luxury tax threshold, but Bay is getting $15M from the Mets this year. So the reports of a heavily backloaded contract were greatly exaggerated. The option vests with 600 PA in 2013 or 500 PA in both 2012 and 2013. I don't think the bonus has anything to do with the luxury tax. IIRC the lux tax is calculated on a straight per/year average and was set that way specifically so clubs can't cook the books to weasel out of it. There may be some income tax considerations (Bay's or the club's) in why they did things that way. That option is certainly reachable. Basically it requires that he stays healthy although not necessarily healthy and productive. Be nice if they could avoid a Magglio Ordonez situation in 2014, but I'm not going to start worrying about that now.

Looks like the Mets apparently decided that 'Canada' is the theme of today's signing so they invited the most famous local Canadian they could find as guest celeb. It was probably came down to either Gilbert or Paul Schaefer and old Rod at least has a sports connection while Paul doesn't and probably isn't awake early enough to boot. That Gilbert is a French Canadian from the eastern part of the country and Bay an anglophone from British Columbia probably never occurred to them. Besides, they all look alike anyway.

Lowell still managed to bang out 47 XBHs in less than 500 ABs last season so he can still swing the bat a bit. Yeah, I'm sure Fenway helped to some extent but playing him only 3 or so days per week might help to keep him fresher. I have no idea why Boston would want Castillo with Pedroia anchored at 2B. The theoretical contract exchange would come out even except that Lowell's cash would all be in this year instead of over the next two seasons. Mets would also have to know that they could sign Hudson or someone else at a reasonable rate. It would mean a sizable jump in payroll this year which may eat into the pitching budget. In all I suspect this is nothing more than fan-invented day dreaming.

Well Lowell always was available - hell, he was traded once already this winter but it fell through due to a failed physical. Texas was reportedly willing to re-do the trade they just wanted to pay a lower price in terms of players sent to Boston. The Sox were already picking up most of Lowell's price tag for 2010. Depending when he is expected to be ready I could see taking a shot at him for a PH-er and RH platoon for Murphy.

You mean there are mob ties in the construction field? Why weren't we warned of this earlier?

Swoboda at least has done TV work in the past - but, at last report, was still a full-time resident of N'Orlins. Jeff Innis is supposedly a very funny guy and might be good on that basis alone. Marty Noble used to add an "Innis in the Morning" quote to all his spring training reports detailing the reliever's best quips and one-liners from the previous day. Not quite sure what Felix Millan would bring to the table except maybe a list of reasons why getting dumped on your head is a bad thing for your career.

Breaths are being held all over NYC ... or maybe not, what do I know From Mike Puma* of the NY Post Jason Bay could officially become a Met today. The free-agent outfielder is expected to be in Manhattan today for a full physical, the last step before his deal can become official. There is some concern on the Mets' part about Bay's knees and shoulders, which will be a point of emphasis during today's examination. The Mets have refused to acknowledge the deal with Bay partly because they fear a public relations fiasco should he fail the physical. If Bay passes his physical, it's likely he'll be introduced to the media tomorrow at Citi Field. It will leave GM Omar Minaya to address holes at catcher and within the starting rotation. Minaya is still trying to strike a deal with free-agent catcher Bengie Molina and has turned attention in recent days to a starting pitching pool that includes Ben Sheets, Joel Pineiro and Jon Garland. * I think he's the guy who replaced Ken Adidas ... rumor has it that they wanted to get the converse side of the story

I give you: Lou Brock - .343 - Only guy here who, like Dawson, was a corner outfielder. But he was also one of the two or three greatest base-stealers ever Robin Yount - .342 -- Spent half his career as a SS AND half as a CF Johnny Bench - .342 -- Probably the best catcher in the 2nd half of the 20th century Tony Perez - .341 -- The other guy who's not a middle of the diamond player, but borderline himself and came up during the toughest hitter's decade since the dead ball era. Is also 18 points above Dawson in OBA Carlton Fisk - .341 -- In the class photo for best catcher in 2nd half of 20th century Cal Ripken, Jr. - .340 -- A short-stop, and set a record you may have heard about Ozzie Smith - .337 -- Not just a short-stop, THE short-stop Gary Carter - .335 -- A catcher and a good one w/300+ HRs Ernie Banks - .330 -- A SS for the first half of his career. Also a 500-HR guy when the meeting of that group could take place in a mid-sized sedan Brooks Robinson - .322 -- Consensus best fielding 3rd sacker ever ... and probably a borderline choice, but is also the first one on this list to have a lower OBP than Hawk Rabbit Maranville - .318 -- Short-stop Luis Aparicio - .311 -- Short-stop You're right. It shouldn't be all about OBP. And it isn't. I think that without all his injuries Dawson would be an easier pick ... but other than that Mrs. Lincoln how was the play?

Speaking of Canadians, she's got a bit of a Joni Mitchell thing going on - particularly in that first pic.

Most of the troops traveling out to and in from overseas deployments do so through the international airport in Bangor, Maine ... Who knew? - both about that being the spot used for arriving/departing troops and that Bangor even had an international airport. Anyway, a group of locals - mostly senior citizens, some with military connections but not all - make a point to greet all the troops upon their arrival with a handshake, an expression of thanks, free cell phone use, maybe some chocolates, etc. They've been at it since 2003 and are "on call" 24/7. Phone relays are used to inform each other of incoming flights and tallies are kept of both the number of flights and soldiers greeted since the start. This is a documentary film focusing on that effort and specifically on several in that group.

That's what I figured. There is, however, evidence which says that in SF situations (runner on 3rd, less than two outs) Fly Balls [u:2jp3zqmm]DO[/u:2jp3zqmm] occur at rates greater than random chance - suggesting that there is some element of 'intent' there, of batters maybe going after pitches they know they can lift and produce a run which they might otherwise leave alone. Hence the 'Sacrifice' in both the name and in the scoring (non-AB) mechanism.

Too many partial seasons for Larkin IMO for him to get my 'Yes', otherwise I'm pretty much down the line with Davidoff. Like his explanation about supporters of Jack Morris claiming he "pitched to the score"; It's funny how only pitchers on strong-hitting teams can 'pitch to the score.' while if you're part of a weak-hitting team, then you might find yourself guilty of pitching 'just well enough to lose.' " just like Vin Scully refuses to use the phrase "sacrafice fly". OK, I give up, why?

Saying that 'X' will suck because 'Y' did is pretty shallow thinking. Football fans/commentators are big on that sort of thing, deciding that some running back draft pick will fail because one from the same college failed to match the hype 20 years earlier like there's some sort of cosmic connection. Bay will also have a lot more help around him than Georgie boy did. The lesson of Foster was learning that one high-priced player on a really bad team not only doesn't turn things around but is also a big waste of money.

Marlon Byrd to the Cubbies for 3 years - they're apparently going to play him in CF.

Probably was - although people basing their ticket buying decision on one signing pretty much deserve to be duped.