Frayed Knot

seawolf17 wrote: Stony Brook's Joe Nathan AGAIN NOT TO THE METS, instead to Detroit for two years. Actually, that'll work, because then we can acquire him for the 2015 stretch run. Seems like Dombrowski is focusing his Tigers towards rebuilding the bullpen, definitely a weakness of the 2013 squad after Jose Valverde went into the tank in late 2012. Nathan takes over as closer; Ian Krol from the Fister trade, youngster Bruce Rondon (who they tried to shoe-horn into the closer role too early) plus possibly the minor league Ray who came in the same trade as Krol become set-up men; and that all allows Drew Smyly to move from the pen and take over Fister's slot in the rotation. Throw in Kinsler + 3B prospect Castellanos replacing Fielder + Infante and they're not looking too bad providing they can get another good year out of the aging Toriiiiii Hunter.

Yeah, Hefner's surgery wasn't until late August (I was thinking it was somewhat earlier) so that should make most, if not all, of 2014 a washout for him - at least as far as being a ML pitcher goes. Not sure of the specifics of how his medical coverage is handled at this point - except to say that I'm sure he's not one of those suddenly fumbling with the Obama-care website in search of options.

On the other hand, Hefner's unlikely to be available for the first part (half?) of next season and being the odd man out via roster shuffling now doesn't preclude the possibility of re-signing him later on.

To make room for the Navarro signing the Jays cut loose former 1st round draft pick (22nd overall - 2007) JP Arencibia - yet another high-power/low-OBA/high-K/RH-hitting backstop to toss on the pile of possibilities. JP was originally drafted when JP Riccardi was GM so maybe there's some connection there, although I'm not sure that his 148/18 K/BB ratio (over 474 ABs) this past season fits in very well with Sandy's line of thinking. Don't believe he's too highly regarded defensively either and hIs career .212/.258/.408 line suggests that things kind of went downhill for him following his 4-for-5, two-HR ML debut (but, really, where else did they have to go?).

Dioneer Navarro - two year deal with Toronto

Robby Ray From BA: Robbie Ray, LHP, Age: 22 -- Selected by Nationals in 12th round of 2010 draft; signed Aug. 17, 2010. After a terrible 2012, Ray bounced back with a solid 2013 to jump into the Nationals� Top 10. In our scouting report, Aaron Fitt noted, �Ray�s plus fastball, athleticism and durable frame give him a chance to be a mid-rotation starter if he can develop his breaking ball.� Ray�s fastball sits in the 91-96 mph range and he knows how to pitch off it well. His changeup plays above-average, and he has a loose arm that encourages scouts� projections on his future command. His breaking ball earns below-average grades, though. Nationals have two years of control on Fister.

Edgy MD wrote: Fister's been sneaking around with a member of the governor's family? I like to think he killed a man, it's the romantic in me. I'm going with: Are working on a deal for TB's David Price with an extension to follow.

WOW! Seems to me like a good deal for the Nats. Added a solid starter to a rotation that already had Strasberg, Zimermann, Gonzalez, and Detwiler without taking anyone off their everyday roster. I know they (the Nats) liked Krol but he one day hopes to be the pitcher that Fister already is, and Lombardozzi, while versatile, seemed to get hung with the Joe McEwing white-'n-scrappy tag (especially by Nats announcers) which tended to credit him with contributions far beyond what his actual output suggests. Don't know much about the other guy, maybe he's the one the Tiggers really wanted. Meanwhile, if I'm Matt Scherzer's agent, between this deal and the Prince Fielder one I gotta be saying Ka-CHING!! over these recent developments as suddenly the money's there and the logical replacement pitcher is not. To me it sounds like the team is all-in on re-signing Scherzer.

All this coming nearly twelve years after Billy Beane cheered the selection of Kazmir so as to clear the way for his dream draft choice of Nick Swisher.

metirish wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: I think that whatever anyone else offers Cano (but especially the Mets) the Yanx will top it in a heartbeat. They're (reportedly) at 7/$160 now simply because they have no reason to go to 10/$310 (which was never anything other than an attention grabber to start with) until someone else gets into the game. But unless someone gets into the Angels/Pujols kind of ridiculous range, they will go seriously north of $160 to keep him IMO. his counter was $260 million....he ain't coming to the Mets.... He can counter with whatever he wants, that doesn't mean someone is going to pay it as there are still plenty of numbers between 160 & 260 (right about 100 of them in fact - at least there were that many when I went to school although, admittedly, that was a while ago). My point about the Yanx is that, if pushed, I think they'll go to just about anything short of stupid numbers in order to retain him and they may even go to stupid. So while I'd love to "steal" him for 161 that ain't happening. I also get the opinion that this negotiation is as much about Jay-Z as it is about Cano. Mr. Z seems out to prove that he can swim with the big boys in this arena too and not just in the 'image is everything' theaters that he's been successful at to date.

I think that whatever anyone else offers Cano (but especially the Mets) the Yanx will top it in a heartbeat. They're (reportedly) at 7/$160 now simply because they have no reason to go to 10/$310 (which was never anything other than an attention grabber to start with) until someone else gets into the game. But unless someone gets into the Angels/Pujols kind of ridiculous range, they will go seriously north of $160 to keep him IMO.

Ceetar wrote: he got them because the Mets wanted an extra year of control for Ruben Tejada, so much so that he considered/is considering filing a grievance. No, Quintanilla got the playing time because Tejada was first, injured, then second, sucked. The grievance has to do with not being called up right after Sept 1 instead of ten days later and, even if that delay was because of playing time manipulation, all it means is that Quintanilla would have had more like 329 ABs instead of 359. But the May through August banishment was earned.

Lefty Specialist wrote: The scariest number there is that Omar Quintanilla had 359 plate appearances for the Mets in 2013. And that, for the most part, he got them because the other options were worse.

Edgy MD wrote: The Mets could have a Flores and a Flowers in '14. Then all they need to do is sign Guy La Fleur and they're all set. Or maybe Edwin Encarnacion is available ... or Pete Rose. Too bad Ted Lilly just announced his retirement.

I remember his name from a prospect lists as he was coming up through the Atlanta system (of course he was a Braves draft choice ... he's from Georgia). He was a Top-100 prospect a couple of times (although never Top-50) before being a piece in the deal to the ChiSox that sent Javy Vazquez to the Braves. His hitting is more than a little bit K-tastic (94 in 256 ABs - Oh my!!!) ... BUT - he walks a decent amount - over 40% of his ML hits have gone for XBs - he hits right-handed (when, you know, he hits) so the platoon aspect works there But he's not creaky and old and I guess they like him defensively. He makes me think of the character 'Nurse Flowers' that Rick Schroeder played for a short arc on 'Scrubs'

Rule #1 about pitching -- there's no such thing as having too much Rule #2 -- if you do have too much, see Rule 1

So I guess we won't be seeing Mr. Hughes following in Dillon's shoes this season.

For some reason or other I remained comment-less in that thread and I don't really remember how I felt about it at the time. Pretty much turned out to be not much of a biggie one way or the other. Both Church and Schneider held down starting positions for a while but didn't do much long term while holding on to Milledge would have only resulted in disappointment anyway and his value continued to head south as far as for use in potential future trades. In all one could argue that they should have traded him even earlier when his value was higher, but you can say that with hindsight for many high draft picks. Lastings went: .251/.329/.436 w/16 HRs over 374 ABs for Yakult this past season, his second in the JPL. He'll turn 29 around opening day 2014.

I'm not declaring him too expensive -- Well, by declaring up front that he wants more than he deserves you pretty much are. I have no idea what his asking price in dollars or years is, or whether he'll get what he's asking for even if I knew it. For the record, Pelfrey (since he seems to be coming up as a comparison) took a $4mil/1-year deal with Minnesota, although he was coming off an injury which Hughes is not. "for one, he dreams of having years like Mike Pelfrey or Bronson Arroyo, even if you use FIP or xFIP or fWAR. There are better options. I only bring up Pelfrey because they're similar ages and similar "HE SHOULD BE BETTER" first round pick nonsense around them. " -- Pelfrey is 2-1/2 years older than Hughes and now has the worse injury history. And while their career ERAs are similar, Hughes has better career WHiP, BB/9, K/9, and H/9 ratios. Only in HRs/9 is Pelfrey superior and, again, that could be partially narrowed by the park swap. "If Hughes was on another team, it'd be "Hey, Hughes is available. He kinda sucks though." but since many of the people writing about the Mets have seen him first hand, regularly, or covered him, it's easy to write about him and have an opinion. It's also easy to make up some "Fits in New York" crap too. -- "Kind of sucks" is a relative term. His 2013 was pretty lousy but he's had a league average or better ERA in two of the other three years that he was a full time starter and was an All-Star back in 2008. There's a big gap between mediocre and 'sucks' and Hughes is closer to the former than the latter. I ignore just about all 'can handle NY' angles; that's not factoring into my argument. My bottom line here: Tossing him into the mix of pitchers to be considered is a much better idea than dismissing him outright simply because we don't like where he came from, or because of what some idiot fans/press might say, or because he's almost certainly never going to be the version that the Yanx thought coming out of the minors.

NY Times Saturday XWORD 42 DOWN: Sports Mascot who's a popular bobble-head Answer = M R M E T

Y'know, Met fans who cry when the Yanx get one of our players and then cry when one of theirs come here--as if both somehow demean us while raising them--can go suck on it. Just as making moves simply for its pr value (something that's been discussed here before) is stupid, so is NOT making a useful move for fear of perceived bad pr reasons (within reason of course). As I think I made clear, Hughes might be a guy for back of the rotation filler in the spot where the likes of Matsuzaka or Harang might be considered - remember that we're not only missing Harvey for 2014 but Hefner as well. If it turns out that he's too expensive then you move on to someone else, but to declare him that now is getting ahead of things. In the meantime, nobody is suggesting that moving him to Queens will suddenly make him a front of the rotation stud, only that it'll likely make him better and that, at age 27, it's not like his career arc is already set in stone and only destined to go downhill from here.

The intriguing part about Hughes comes from the idea that he was a former 1st round draft pick who, one year while coming up, was considered the top pitching prospect in baseball; he's been a fly ball pitcher stuck in the wrong park for his entire career and would greatly benefit from a move to ... well just about anywhere, but to CitiField in particular. Plus he's doesn't even turn 28 until mid-season 2014 and maybe there's something to that whole 'change of scenery' thing. His career H-v-R HRs are at about a 2-1 ratio [76 to 36] and the slash and ERA stats show a similar bias: H=.274/.328/.479; R=.245/.306/.384; ERA= 4.96 vs 4.10 Having said all that, I'm not sure what constitutes going "all in" on him. I think he's worthy of having his tires kicked, preferably with the thought of a one-year deal for a back of the rotation type, possibly going to two (or one + one) if the price is right. I suspect he's the type that'll wind up with a smaller market team for more security (read: length) but, like I said, I think it's worth exploring.

Ricky Nolasco - Twins, 4 years.

Checking in on the long-time faces of baseball who won't be around come the 2014 season. We already knew about the likes of Mariano Rivera (I think I heard somewhere he wasn't coming back), Pettitte, and Todd Helton We can now add Theodore Roosevelt "Ted" Lilly to the list; too many injuries he says. He spent at least parts of 15 seasons in the majors chalking up a 130-103 record and the number of Montreal Expos goes down by one with his exit. Also pitched for the Yanx, A's, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Dodgers where he made 5 starts this past season before being released in August.

We're not now going to have to supply 'After Dickey effect' photos like we did with the 'Dickey Face' ones, are we? One just shudders at what FMan might come up with for that contest.