batmagadanleadoff

It's too bad that Pagan is primarily a left and centerfielder and that the Mets have seemingly committed to giving Francouer most of the right field at bats. Pagan is a better hitter than Frenchy. If Pagan is a fourth outfielder, then Frenchy is a fourth and a half outfielder.

Bay or Holliday. Holliday or Bay. So did any other NL East team improve their left field going into 2010 as much as the Mets did?

I edited my post at the same time that you were responding. Not that my changes should effect this exchange. Just so you know.

How will Bay fare in Citi Field? Simon and Katie Sharp of ESPN Research have four points on this: 1. Based on data from HitTracker Online, a website that tracked every home run hit in 2009, Bay's home runs averaged a "standard distance" of 389.9 feet, which was tied for 82nd among the 99 players with at least 18 HR. 2. Based on data from HitTracker, only 17 of his 36 homers would have been home runs in all 30 ballparks. 3. HitTracker studied fly balls hit at Citi Field throughout the 2009 season and concluded that Citi Field took away a lot of potential home runs. There were 64 fly balls that weren't home runs at Citi Field that would have been home runs at Shea Stadium (there were also four balls that were home runs at Citi Field, that wouldn't have been home runs at Shea Stadium). 4. In 2009, Bay hit 15 home runs at Fenway Park. By HitTracker's calculations, 7 of those would not have made it out of Citi Field, or 47 percent. A full review of HitTracker data from 2006 to 2008 leads to a projection in which Bay would hit 36 percent fewer home runs at Citi Field in 2010, and that his home run total should drop 16 percent overall. Translation: He'd be projected to hit 10 HR at home and 30 HR overall in 2010. I find this data to be very persuasive. "Hit tracker" HR data --analyzing each home run individually for distance, speed and trajectory-- will yield a more accurate understanding of a stadium's effect on home runs than by simply comparing the total number of HR's hit at home by the home team and its opponents as compared to road HR's. I've been discounting the fact that both the Mets and their opponents have hit more home runs at Citi Field last season than on the road, and therefore, am unwilling to conclude that Citi Field increases the number of HR's hit as compared to a neutral park. As a result, I've been ignoring many of the Citi Field HR rankings that have been generated by baseball statistical sites in this off season. To me, it's illogical to conclude that CF inreases HR's, given the larger fair ball area as compared to Shea, and the significantly taller outfield fences. I realize that there might be other factors to compensate for the larger CF dimensions, such as wind patterns, better lighting, architecture, etc, but remain unconvinced that those conditions exist to the point that they might nullify the new stadium's vast outfield. I expect that a larger sample size (at least three seasons worth of data) will confirm that Citi Field is not a HR park.

While the Mets offer is four [years] for 65 [million], it�s so backloaded that I�ve been told by Mets people that it�s far less than what the Red Sox were offering in present-day value. The Mets like to hold on to their money a little longer than other teams do because Wilpon knows this hedge fund guy that guarantees hefty inflation beating profits on any investments made.

Peter Gammons did a live-radio interview with the Red Sox radio network a few days ago. Here's a highlight of what Gammons had to say about free agent Jason Bay: I think [bay would] rather be playing in Beirut than Queens.... I think in Jason�s case, it would have been really easy to take 4 x 15 [million dollars] in July, which I thought, actually, at the time was a little bit high as an offer. It was clear that the Red Sox just wanted to get him signed and get him out of the way. While the Mets offer is four [years] for 65 [million], it�s so backloaded that I�ve been told by Mets people that it�s far less than what the Red Sox were offering in present-day value. And he obviously doesn�t want to play there. http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/25/peter-gammons-on-dale-holley/

I would like to go on record as agreeing with every single post in this thread. I even read this entire thread twice, just to make sure.

themetfairy wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Fast ball? Ligament? This guy doesn't even have a first nameRobert Alan Dickey Killjoy.

Fast ball? Ligament? This guy doesn't even have a first name.

Strat-O-Matic: Not the real thing, but an incredible simulation The venerable game remains determinedly old school and revered for its accuracy, whether in traditional dice-and-cards tabletop form or newer computerized version. You'd think a guy who played in more than 2,000 major league games and broadcast nearly 1,000 more would be tired of baseball. Not Keith Hernandez. The former National League MVP can't get enough, often firing up his laptop when he gets home from the ballpark to play Strat-O-Matic, a game he first tried in high school nearly four decades ago. "I like to play the schedule as it happens," he says. "It's a complete reenactment of the season. I'm playing 1962 right now because that was the Giants and Dodgers." He has plenty of company. Since Strat-O-Matic was launched in 1961 by Bucknell University mathematics student Hal Richman, the game has sold millions of copies, given birth to hundreds of fantasy leagues and inspired an online community of nearly 6,000 hard-core players. It's even been featured on the big screen, getting a cameo in the 1994 Spike Lee film "Crooklyn." In an era when sports simulation games have moved from the tabletop to the laptop and beyond, Strat-O-Matic and its older old-school rival APBA have remained popular because of their unrivaled realism. In both games, the performance of every major leaguer is subjected to a mathematical formula and then rendered onto individual cards for each player. Toss the dice, cross-reference the results to the numbers on the card, and you get the outcome of each at-bat. Advanced versions of the games factor in the probability of balks, rain, injuries, a pitcher's stamina -- even trades and the intricacies of ballparks. And because the basics of Strat-O-Matic haven't changed over three decades, game players can match ballplayers from different eras, batting Hank Aaron against Roger Clemens, for example. Hernandez says the game is so realistic he uses Strat-O-Matic cards to guide him during his work as a TV analyst for the New York Mets. "It's remarkable how it works out," he says. "I like to see the ratings defensively, arm, speed. Are they good hit-and-run guys? Stolen base guys? It's always good for me to brush up on that." In recent years, Strat-O-Matic has added a computer version and it can be played against distant opponents on the Internet. Yet even those versions are tame and antiquated -- if far more statistically accurate -- compared to what's available for Xbox and PlayStation. Richman, 73, concedes his audience is growing older, but fans of his game remain loyal. "I've always enjoyed it," says Hernandez, 56. "I don't come from the generation that needs a visual." kevin.baxter@latimes.com http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-strat-sider21-2009dec21,0,1864875.story

Outed at the Plate: The Mike Piazza Story.

I disagree. RF's are expected to make large offensive contributions. As it is, it appears that we've traded Carlos Delgado's power numbers for the unproven production of Daniel Murphy. Our star third baseman hit five road HR's last season and was more Magadan than Wright. So how much offense do the Mets intend to give up? You can talk nice guy all you want but at the end of the day, you have to determine whether Francouer is helping the Mets win and whether Francouer is contributing positively to the ultimate goal of qualifying for the playoffs. I don't see how those two questions could be answered affirmatively being that Francouer is traditionally, a below average player. A few years ago, I might've said that Francouer is sort of a Kingman lite, but his HR rates have dropped by about half since his first two seasons. I'm open-minded to the idea that he'll improve, but remain somewhat skeptical and note that in any event, we would be hoping for Francouer to perform at a level that historically, he's never attained consistently. He did show improvement during his half season as a 2009 Met, though. To the extent that everyone, even Albert Pujols, is a question mark, and that no one knows what's gonna happen next season, Francouer is an even bigger question mark if he is expected to shine.