batmagadanleadoff

It's not worth the effort to frame and snip and flickr the standings so long as the Mets continue to struggle just to tread water. So, no pictures today. BP sez that the Mets chances of winning their division are about 6,250 to 1. At 714 to 1, the Wild Card is the safer bet.

metirish wrote: You're taking the piss right? The funny thing is ... I don't know. Probably a little. But there's usually gonna be a Met that I hate and Frenchy's been that Met for me this year, since about May. Ollie, too.

I remember the play me or trade me quotes, which were then cleaned up and politically corrected, presumably after Frenchy conferred with his people. And even then, he was working on Jerry behind the scenes for more PT. What kind of message is being delivered when a rightfielder plays almost every day even though he on-bases under .300? If I was an outfielder behind Frenchy on the depth chart, I'd be hoping for Frenchy to crack an ankle or something.

Baseball Prospectus' very prescient analysis from their 2010 annual, released this preseason: There's nothing wrong with putting balls in play if you're driving them, but Francoeur's overeager approach (his 3.34 pitches seen per plate appearance was the fifth-worst in the NL) meant everything but line drives, which are the foundation of batting average -- an excess of grounders and popups. Unable to correct his tendency ... he was dumped on the Mets. Francoeur wasn't any more selective in New York but he did square up on more balls. His line drive rate leaped to a career-best 25 percent, a rate that would have ranked in the full-season top 10 (Jason Bartlett led the majors at 27.4 percent). With the Mets thinking about making a multiyear contract offer to him, is he likely to maintain his hitting on a high line-drive rate alone? Perfect data do not exist, but we'll use the numbers we have: going back to 1988, there have been 5,701 seasons of 300 or more plate appearances. Of these, just 264 seasons (4.6 percent) had a line-drive rate of 24.5 percent or higher. Of the 264, only 36 hitters reached that percentage in two or more consecutive seasons, and only three, Mark Grace, Mo Vaughn and Paul O'Neill did it in four straight seasons. In short, Francoeur is extremely likely to regress, leaving the Mets with what he was before, an out machine with a good arm.

Bobby Ojeda on Jeff Francoeur: "He's just not a good hitter..... That's who he is..... He might be a nice guy, but I need wins....."

According to this report, the Rangers already claimed Francoeur off the waiver wire. Excerpt: ATLANTA -- According to multiple reports Jeff Francoeur was claimed off waivers by the Rangers, who were discussing a possible deal with the Mets on Tuesday night. Typical Mets. They'll get rid of him after he did his part to ruin this season. If we're lucky.

According to this report, the Rangers already claimed Francoeur off the waiver wire. Excerpt: ATLANTA -- According to multiple reports Jeff Francoeur was claimed off waivers by the Rangers, who were discussing a possible deal with the Mets on Tuesday night. Typical Mets. They'll get rid of him after he did his part to ruin this season.

Odds: 345:1 Mets winning the 2010 NL Wild Card (BP) 563:1 Catching a ball at a major league ballgame 4,464:1 Injury from using a chain saw 11,500:1 Winning an Academy Award 22,000:1 Becoming a professional aathlete 88,000:1 Dating a supermodel 576,000:1 Getting struck by lightning 649,739:1 Drawing a Royal Flush in 5 card poker 685,000:1 Drowning in a bathtub 175,711,536:1 Winning the Mega Millions Lottery 1st Prize Jackpot

According to Baseball Prospectus, and before tonight's loss to the Braves, the Mets chances of winning the NL Wild Card were almost three times better than their chances of winning their division. The odds at the start of play today were: Mets winning the NL East: 0.11% (about one in a thousand) Mets winning the NL Wild Card: 0.29% Also known as slim and none. I know. This conversation reminds me of the scene where the Sundance Kid is worried about jumping hundreds of feet into shallow waters mostly because he can't swim. Baseball Prospectus reduced the Mets odds of winning the East by about half, to .05% (five in ten-thousand). Their odds of winning the Wild Card are about the same as yesterday (0.2933%), despite losing to the Braves last night. (The top three teams also lost last night). According to BP, the Mets chances of winning the Wild Card are now about six times better than their chances of winning their division.

It may be as edifying to check the division standings, where their net defecit is 18.5 games. That could change bigly one way or the other over this next series, but it's still a smaller number. Get back to me on Thursday ... if the Mets win their next four. I place a greater emphasis on the traditional way of analyzing the Mets "games behind" by focusing on the number of games the Mets trail the team at the top of the heap. Thus, for example, I think that the Mets would have a better chance of winning a Wild Card race where they trailed four different teams by five games each (20 net GB), than capturing a division crown where they were in second place in their division, but 18 games behind the leader (18 net GB). Anyway, this conversation will likely be academic in about two weeks. The damage was done. The team needed Reyes and Beltran not only to return, but to play like All-Stars. They didn't and nobody stepped up to fill in. Reyes was an all-star for about four weeks and Beltran's worse than Frenchy. Imagine that: It's bad enough that Frenchy plays almost every day, but there's now another every-day outfielder on the team who's even worse! I'd go on but what could I write that nobody here doesn't already know? OT: Anybody catch the New York Mets pennant in tonight's episode of Mad Men? According to Baseball Prospectus, and before tonight's loss to the Braves, the Mets chances of winning the NL Wild Card were almost three times better than their chances of winning their division. The odds at the start of play today were: Mets winning the NL East: 0.11% (about one in a thousand) Mets winning the NL Wild Card: 0.29%

Johan Santana's making his move on this year's elite pitchers .... Ryan Dempster cracks the top 20 ...... K-Rod still packs a mean wallop WAR RankPitcher/TeamWARIP/WAR1Josh Johnson/FLA6.125.412Roy Halladay/PHI5.732.463Adam Wainwright/STL5.631.494Ubaldo Jimenez/COL5.031.075Tim Hudson/ATL5.031.336Johan Santana/NYM4.438.867Livan Hernandez/WAS4.039.428Chris Carpenter/STL3.647.59Brett Myers/HOU3.544.8610Matt Cain/SF3.447.6511Mat Latos/SD3.240.5212Roy Oswalt/HOU-PHI3.246.3513Yovani Gallardo/MIL3.044.1114Cole Hamels/PHI3.048.6715Tim Lincecum/SF2.953.6816Barry Zito/SF2.954.1417Clayton Kershaw/LA2.853.6918Ted Lilly/CHIC-LAD2.552.0019Ryan Dempster/CHI2.562.9320Jaime Garcia/STL2.452.64.26K-Rod/NYM2.126.83.28R.A. Dickey/NYM2.148.57 updated through last night: WAR RankPitcher/TeamWARIP/WAR 1Josh Johnson/FLA5.727.852Roy Halladay/PHI5.732.463Tim Hudson/ATL5.529.944Adam Wainwright/STL5.532.065Ubaldo Jimenez/COL5.031.076Johan Santana/NYM4.438.867Livan Hernandez/WAS4.039.428Brett Myers/HOU3.843.169Chris Carpenter/STL3.548.8610Matt Cain/SF3.349.0911Cole Hamels/PHI3.346.6712Roy Oswalt/HOU-PHI3.246.3513Mat Latos/SD3.141.8314Yovani Gallardo/MIL3.046.4415Barry Zito/SF3.052.3316Tim Lincecum/SF2.953.6817Clayton Kershaw/LA2.853.6918R.A. Dickey/NYM2.642.69 19Ted Lilly/CHIC-LAD2.552.0020Ryan Dempster/CHI2.562.93.27K-Rod/NYM2.126.83 Updated through 8/18. No changes in the top 20. Santana drops to 7th. Lincecum clings. WAR RankPitcher/TeamWARIP/WAR1Josh Johnson/FLA6.027.782Roy Halladay/PHI6.032.173Tim Hudson/ATL5.630.654Adam Wainwright/STL5.632.745Ubaldo Jimenez/COL5.231.416Livan Hernandez/WAS4.338.297Johan Santana/NYM4.242.628Brett Myers/HOU3.943.859Chris Carpenter/STL3.452.0610Mat Latos/SD3.341.1111Clayton Kershaw/LA3.347.6812Matt Cain/SF3.350.9113Cole Hamels/PHI3.248.1314Roy Oswalt/HOU-PHI3.248.5415Barry Zito/SF3.054.0016Ted Lilly/CHIC-LAD2.946.9017Yovani Gallardo/MIL2.948.0518R.A. Dickey/NYM2.842.6219Ryan Dempster/CHI2.760.7420Tim Lincecum/SF2.563.73.27K-Rod/NYM2.127.30. 37Jonathon Niese/NYM1.873.89 Updated through games of 8/24. The riveting news: Lincecum and Gallardo are out of the top 20; Jaime Garcia and Fla's Anibal Sanchez are in. Memorize the chart. Quiz tomorrow. WAR RankPitcher/TeamWARIP/WAR1Roy Halladay/PHI6.630.302Josh Johnson/FLA5.829.603Tim Hudson/ATL5.532.304Adam Wainwright/STL5.534.615Ubaldo Jimenez/COL5.232.566Johan Santana/NYM4.343.497Brett Myers/HOU4.242.388Livan Hernandez/WAS3.844.479Chris Carpenter/STL3.749.8210Roy Oswalt/HOU-PHI3.645.0911Matt Cain/SF3.648.89 12Mat Latos/SD3.540.7613Ted Lilly/CHIC-LAD3.543.2414Clayton Kershaw/LA3.448.3315Cole Hamels/PHI3.251.8816Ryan Dempster/CHI3.057.3317Jaime Garcia/STL2.948.7418R.A. Dickey/NYM2.746.7919Anibal Sanchez/FLA2.754.9420Barry Zito/SF2.663.72.27K-Rod/NYM2.127.30.36Jonathon Niese/NYM1.972.63.44Mike Pelfrey/NYM1.789.22.48Stephen Strasburg/WASH1.642.50 Back by popular demand. (through 8/29) Zito the Giant is out; Wilson the Giant is in. Pelfrey moves up 16 spots. WAR RankPitcher/TeamWARIP/WAR1Roy Halladay/PHI6.531.852Josh Johnson/FLA6.129.133Tim Hudson/ATL5.931.304Adam Wainwright/STL5.535.525Ubaldo Jimenez/COL5.432.656Brett Myers/HOU4.541.117Johan Santana/NYM4.345.128Roy Oswalt/HOU-PHI3.943.689Matt Cain/SF3.946.7510Mat Latos/SD3.839.3911Clayton Kershaw/LA3.647.3112Cole Hamels/PHI3.648.3313Livan Hernandez/WAS3.648.7014Chris Carpenter/STL3.652.8715Ryan Dempster/CHI3.551.1416Jaime Garcia/STL3.344.4417R.A. Dickey/NYM3.044.4418Ted Lilly/CHIC-LAD3.051.7819Brian Wilson/SF2.622.0520Anibal Sanchez/FLA2.658.97.27K-Rod/NYM2.226.0628Mike Pelfrey/NYM2.272.58.49Jonathon Niese/NYM1.689.79.54Stephen Strasburg/WASH1.545.33

It may be as edifying to check the division standings, where their net defecit is 18.5 games. That could change bigly one way or the other over this next series, but it's still a smaller number. Get back to me on Thursday ... if the Mets win their next four. I place a greater emphasis on the traditional way of analyzing the Mets "games behind" by focusing on the number of games the Mets trail the team at the top of the heap. Thus, for example, I think that the Mets would have a better chance of winning a Wild Card race where they trailed four different teams by five games each (20 net GB), than capturing a division crown where they were in second place in their division, but 18 games behind the leader (18 net GB). Anyway, this conversation will likely be academic in about two weeks. The damage was done. The team needed Reyes and Beltran not only to return, but to play like All-Stars. They didn't and nobody stepped up to fill in. Reyes was an all-star for about four weeks and Beltran's worse than Frenchy. Imagine that: It's bad enough that Frenchy plays almost every day, but there's now another every-day outfielder on the team who's even worse! I'd go on but what could I write that nobody here doesn't already know? OT: Anybody catch the New York Mets pennant in tonight's episode of Mad Men?

Edgy DC wrote: It may be as edifying to check the division standings, where their net defecit is 18.5 games. That could change bigly one way or the other over this next series, but it's still a smaller number. Get back to me on Thursday ... if the Mets win their next four.

Stark's 1982 Staub. No rolling pin, but a bigger chef's hat. In cartoons, Rusty doesn't gain any weight.

The Mets pick up a game on the Cards, Dodgers and Marlins. They are a combined, or net, 25 games behind the six teams ahead of them in the race for the Wild Card. The Silver Lining: More than half of the Mets remaining 32 games are against the dregs of the NL: Four games against the Pirates, four more against the Brewers; six against the Nats and three against the Cubs. The Downside: Two out of every three won't cut it. With 32 games remaining, the Mets probably cannot lose more than six or seven games if they are to qualify. The Crucial: Six against the Phillies. Anything less than 5 out of 6 wins will probably hurt the cause more than help, given the ground that the Mets must make up in less than five weeks.

I believe that they made a mistake on that trivia question. Four Mets won the ERA title --- not three: Seaver, Swan (78), Gooden (85) and Santana (08). (Unless I heard the question incorrectly. Maybe I made the mistake. Maybe they asked for the four Mets ERA champs. I'm confused.)

Mets pick up a game on Colorado and SanFran, and reduce their "Net Games Behind" by two -- from 28 to 26: Oh, what might've been if they'd only platooned Frenchy, Pagan and Beltran. And pulled Ollie from the rotation a few weeks earlier. And figured out that Mike Pelfrey was tipping his pitches after one outing instead of six. And signed Matt Holliday instead of Jason Bay. And kept Heath Bell. And built a scoreboard that wasn't so goddamn ugly and embarrassing. And I'm not even talking about that monstrosity out in right field that looks like about a dozen gigantic post it stickers flapping in the breeze. You know which ugly scoreboard I'm talking about. The other ugly scoreboard that's right next to the right field eyesore. And did you ever see two ugly scoreboards so close to each other? And while we're at it, what's the point of the Shake Shack if you hafta spend three innings on line waiting to order your food unless you get there before the game starts? Who the hell goes to a baseball game to spend three innings on a hamburger line? What's so great about that?

Does anybody remember the 1982 Daily News Mets Starks? Each caricature took up the entire two page centerfold in the Sunday comics section. The cartoons were, thus, twice the size of the '73's, but with folds down the middle, which were unavoidable. There were only six Mets (and MFY's, I presume, though I didn't bother to save or track those) ... Staub (again with the rolling pin), Kingman, Brooks, Wilson, Allen and Stearns.

Zvon wrote: This is great. I've been looking for these forever and have only run into Seaver, Tug and a small bad copy of Staub. I was trying to work the crease out of Tug and this is as far as I got. I have a real big resolution original and maybe I'll go back in and see if I can make that look better. It looks like Tug forgot to remove the wire hanger from his uniform before he took the mound.

Both Tug Mcgraw and his MFY counterpart reliever, Sparky Lyle, were drawn wearing fireman hats I saved the entire comic book section for each DN Sunday edition that included those Stark caricatures from 1973. (Dick Tracy on the front cover; Dondi on the back) I've scanned some of the cartoons into my computer. There were 11 in all ... the starting eight, the ace pitcher, a reliever and the manager. Staub was swinging a baker's rolling pin. Fregosi was no longer a Met on the day that his caricature appeared.

I know. I know. Maybe Tejada's due. Ugh.