Mex17

Centerfield wrote: Greg Holland is also available. We should look to trade Ramos. Nah. . .keep them all I say. I have been saying this in various posts over the past few days, and the more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that they ought to wait until next winter in order to address the offense/everyday players. To use an analogy, if you are invited to dine at Ruth's Chris one evening, you might want to skip lunch at Applebee's that day. You can probably make a reasonable case for every person that the Mets have slotted in at every position right now, even if there might be better options out in the market. But, with the exception of Hosmer and maybe Wellington Castillo (the latter of which I would like to see them pursue but I do not think that they are), I think that you can probably say that the options that are going to be on the market next year are better than the options you have now. So you might as well wait. But as you are waiting, you do need to do something for this coming season, so why not a Big Bullpen? Locking in Reed/Davis/Holland now (and I prefer Reed due to age) protects you from the impending free agencies of both Familia and Ramos.

Ceetar wrote: He's 9th in UZR/150 which is Ultimate Zone Rating adjusted to a 150 game schedule/sample. Factors in arm, double plays ,range, etc. I'm a little surprised that it's that low, but that's the type of thing I was looking for. Say you have one of the highest UZRs in the league as a second baseman, and this results in a spectacular play in a big spot when the opponent is primed to score or just to keep a runner of the basepaths before the big slugger comes up (so that your defense keeps a double from resulting in an RBI or prevents the solo home run from being a two-run shot). That kind of stuff should counteract a low slugging percentage when you are evaluating the entire player.

http://nypost.com/2017/11/06/dee-gordon-splash-solid-royals-starter-sizing-up-mets-free-agency/ Puma suggests the Gordon idea in print. . .

http://nypost.com/2017/11/06/top-30-free-agent-predictions-yankees-red-sox-make-splashes/ He has Shaw and Vargas coming to the Mets. This is a little closer to what I personally have in mind as opposed to Harper's take, but I think that they can afford to be a little more aggressive in the bullpen market. What is the take on Shaw, can he step up and be a closer in 2019 if Familia and Ramos both walk?

Who sets the market (meaning "who is signed first), Davis or Reed? I think Reed since he is three years younger.

How about this? -Big time closer money on Reed or Wade Davis. -Moderate 3rd/4th starter money on either Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas, Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, or, yeah I'm saying it, C.C. Sabathia (he might be miffed at the Yankees for them firing Girardi). -High end bench money on Howie Kendrick. See what you have in Smith/Flores/Rivera/Lagares/Nimmo and save some bullets for the big bats that are hitting the market a year from now. The downside to this plan is, when you finally get the big bats, the big bullpen goes away when Familia and Ramos walk. But you will not have to worry about locking down a closer when you are also shopping for the bats. Looking for new setup men for Reed or Davis would be more manageable.

Alonso and Morrison both seem to have turned on the power switch just as they hit their walk years. That could be a red flag since they never had those types of slugging numbers previously.

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Dozier was all but traded to the Dodgers last offseason, but the Twins held out for DeLeon (plus another stud - Cody Bellinger was on their wish list) so LA said "FU" and went and got Logan Forsythe instead. Ken Rosenthal hasn't called me to confirm or anything, but I'd bet he's available. Edit: Edgy replied for me better than me. Okay, but I would still lean against spending a lot of player capital to get him now when I can pick him up (along with a variety of other big ticket free agents) a year from now. On edit: Maybe the deal that I originally proposed for a Gordon might be more appropriate for Dozier, but only if it comes with a contract extension for Dozier now. I don't want to pay a huge price for a one year rental.

The one possibility left for an addition to the staff is Ryan Ellis as assistant hitting coach.

You think that Dozier might be available because he is going into his walk year. Can you tell me that you have seen a reputable report that the Twins are actually going to put him on the block? I'm just trying to go with stuff that is actually in the ether, and there have been reports that Jeter wants to slash the Miami payroll and moving Gordon is part of that plan. Notwithstanding that, while I am not totally coming off the Gordon thing (mostly because I am intrigued over what a Gordon/Rosario/Lagares combo up the middle can do with regard to preventing opposing runs from being scored), let me float another idea. . . Harper suggested signing Bruce, Eduardo Nunez, and Brandon Kintzler. I'm going to focus on one third of that (Nunez). Say you sign Nunez to a reasonable contact and you leave Bruce alone. Now you have Nunez, Cabrera, Flores, and Rivera. All of them can play multiple positions, (albeit not at a high level the way that Gordon can at second base. . .just saying), including the outfield in the case of Nunez and, to a lesser extent, Rivera. All of them can contribute with the bat (and probably slug better than Gordon can, I'll give you that). None of them I think can be counted on to play a complete 162 game schedule and give you 600 ABs. Say that you can pencil Cabrera in for 500 ABs, Nunez for 450-ish, Flores for 400, and Rivera for 300. You also have Lagares who, at this point, you really need to give playing time to in order to determine if you want to really pay him the $9 million that he is guaranteed for 2019 or create enough of a trade market for him that you can move that off of your payroll. With this, you have a lot of positions on the field covered but you are not really not locking yourself down long term with one specific guy at one particular spot. You save the money by not signing Bruce and, although I like the idea of Kintzler, you go with a little bit of a cheaper but still value-added option such as Joe Smith or someone like that. The money you save there goes towards a Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb/Jason Vargas type. This, assuming other things like other players coming back from injury and performing up to expectations and perhaps even making some steps forward, probably gives you a team that will have a winning record but probably will not overtake the Nats in 2018 (instead, they will be in the hunt for a wild card spot). Now the Hot Stove going into 2019 comes around. Cabrera is off the books (and Harvey as well) and the money owed to Wright even after adjusting for the insurance reimbursement starts to go down. You still have options (in the general sense, not actual minor league options) in the forms of Nunez, Flores, Rivera, and Lagares, but you are not overly financially committed to any of them nor are you locked down with having to play any one of them at any one position (and you also have some versatility with Conforto with regard to CF or RF), and you can still trade any one of them assuming that Nunez is not going to command a no-trade clause. Now you are in a prime position to go shopping when the likes of Harper, Machado, Dozier, Blackmon, Donaldson, Murphy, and LeMahieu are all going to be available on the open market. Snag one or possibly two of them in an environment where the Nats are likely to lose Harper and possibly Murphy as well, and now you are in a position to take over the division. What I am trying to get at is, while you do want to make some impactful additions for 2018, you need to do it with an eye towards 2019 when the real cheddar is going to be out there. You also have to keep in mind the need to eventually lock down deGrom, Syndergaard, maybe Familia, and a little farther down the line Conforto past their free agent years, but that is probably a topic for another time.

Ceetar wrote: In terms of wRC+ as in, RUNS created, weighted for park and what not, he's 32nd among all 2B with at least 200 PA. I'm not trying to be snarky, but is there a comparable stat to this one that quantifies outs created or runs prevented?

Edgy MD wrote: You're kind of hijacking the fish/bicycle analogy from Irina Dunn, and breaking it. It's circular logic to say you can't judge Gordon based on his not slugging well because he doesn't slug well. Sure I can. Do you judge Tom Brady based upon his inability to rush from the pocket the way that Vick used to?

Centerfield wrote: Meanwhile, Wilmer put up a .795 OPS last year (career .725), and is younger and cheaper. Judging Gordon based upon his OPS is like judging a fish based upon it's ability to ride a bicycle since half of that stat is based upon Slugging Percentage and slugging is not part of Gordon's game. We also do not know if Flores can play a full season while keeping up that level of production. He had 482 AB's in 2015 as opposed to 336 last year and 307 in 2016, but that came with a .706 OPS compared to the .795 that you mentioned for this year and .788 in 2016. His half year suspension in 2016 notwithstanding, Gordon has been in the lineup consistently starting from 2014 with 600+ ABs every year. Flores is also a square peg plugged into a round hole defensively at second (or at best he is league average). Gordon already has a GG from 2015 and I would not be surprised if he gets another one this year. Take a look at the range and the hands for yourself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj4ahh2mZT4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMT0-REHqB8 Gordon has a 2.7 WAR from 2017 compared to Flores' .3, which is not insignificant. I'm sure a lot of that also comes from the speed and stolen bases in addition to the defense and hitting for average. Do you think that the speed/stolen bases aspect of his game will be gone when he reaches his age 33 season? I admit that I may have overstated OBP as a factor. Among qualifiers for second basemen, Gordon ranked 8th in OBP. The guys above him were Altuve, Murphy, LeMahieu, Cesar Hernandez, Lowrie, Dozier, and Panik (Flores did not qualify presumably due to lack of ABs). Assuming that the options for Altuve and Lowrie are picked up, are any of these realistically available in the trade market like Gordon is going to be? If you can make the case that one is going to be, then we can talk about what that player brings to the table over Gordon.

Centerfield wrote: Oh. I meant what do you think it would take to get Votto. He had another stupid good year, but that's another year of his prime ticked off the ledger, and a year closer to his inevitable decline. Does Smith, Gsellman, Peterson get it done? I don't want to pay for the downside of somebody's else's franchise player.

I'm assuming now that he is slotted in at third as opposed to second. Looking at the numbers, I think that he had basically the same year offensively in 2018 than he did in 2017 with the exception of the HR's going down. Do you think that setting in at the new position full time alleviates that? He made it known that he did not like all the moving around last year.

In case people want or need to see it, here is the itemized break down of Teufel's managing/coaching career: 2003 - Brooklyn 2004 - St. Lucie 2005 - St. Lucie 2007 - Savannah 2008 - St. Lucie 2009 - St. Lucie 2010 - Binghamton 2011 - Buffalo 2011 - Leonas del Caracas (Venezuelan League) 2012 - 2016: Mets 3rd base coach That's 8 years of managing (albeit not in the majors) and 5 years coaching in the majors. I wanted a former major league manager as bench coach with a rookie manager, but I would be comfortable with this resume. Plus, we need him on the staff I think because of his experience with coaching the infielders (and apparently his expertise with using metrics to position them). And, in Amaro, we already have out "Spanish speaking guy" on the coaching staff.

So Long presumably feels so slighted that the Mets did not make him manager that he cannot remain as their hitting coach. Therefore he becomes the hitting coach for the Nats, who also passed on making him their manager.

That leaves presumably Teufel for bench. Sorry, Manny. Assuming that, it's a hybrid approach: One guy coming back after a year away and in a new role. One guy promoted. Two guys staying the same. Two completely new guys.

Edgy MD wrote: I don't get that the conversation (here? elsewhere?) is coalescing around re-signing Jay Bruce. And I certainly don't see anybody else banging the drum for Dee Gordon. In this thread, the talk has been of the need to acquire two bats, one for the infield and one for the outfield, and one slugger and one contact hitter.

Edgy MD wrote: If you have reservations about Conforto in centerfield long term, why push for the team to acquire another corner outfielder? I'm not. I'm seeing where the conversation is going through and framing a point of view based upon that.

If they do decide to go for an outfield power bat this winter, I think that they are going to target Bruce over Martinez, but only if no real market develops for Bruce and they can get him on a team friendly deal later on in the winter (as in January). I do not think that they are going to make a big splash for Martinez as that would probably preclude them financially from a Machado/Donaldson run next year. That said, imagine what the 2019 lineup could be. . . Gordon-2b (I know, I am pushing hard for a trade for Dee Gordon) Rosario-ss Cespedes-lf Conforto-cf Machado-3b Bruce-rf Smith-1b d'Arnaud-c I just have reservations about Conforto in centerfield long term, especially since we have a former Gold Glove winner for centerfield on the roster already, and for significant money.

Centerfield wrote: Look, not that this is any sort of big deal, but if the idea was to start clean, promoting the guy who was assistant to the guy we just had is not a very inspiring choice. But that wasn't the idea. Left to their own devices, the preference was to keep Long. They liked the job he did.

Frayed Knot wrote: 'In uniform" coaches might be the better description so I think the bullpen coach does count against the six. They have had seven in uniform the past few years. . . Scott Warthen Long Roessler (as the "assistant". . .perhaps that was the loophole) Goodwin Teufel/Sherlock Bones

Gregorson: not a great 2017, but a decent track record. So Smith is the name in my head and Gregorson is the name in yours. I'm sure that there are others, but I think that should be the expectation.

I don't see him as an option for the Mets (they are all in with Smith for better or for worse), but I do not see a place for him on the Dodgers anymore even if he is healthy and he has $21.5 million coming to him next year. Does he get a landing spot with another team or do you think that LA is going to have to eat all of that?