smg58
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Everything posted by smg58
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He appears to have been derailed by an injury a few years ago. It's possible he could regain his form, but I think it's more likely we hear nothing from him after this. It only cost us cash, so it's not a major commitment or anything.
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metirish wrote: Officer Joe Blanton can do that and more for you. The OPS against Blanton last year was .677, Santana was .678, and Haren was .687. I agree that the need for a BIG DEAL is exaggerated. What hurt the Mets last year was not the absence of a BIG DEAL, but a series of little deals that backfired spectacularly. Hell, you could make the argument that if Minaya had done absolutely nothing about the bullpen -- no Mota, no Schoeneweis, no Sosa, no Sele, no Heath Bell and Royce Ring for Joe Adkins and Ben Johnson, no Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom for Jason Vargas, and no Brian Bannister for Ambriorix Burgos -- the Mets would have won at least 95 games. So the rotation as it currently stands has Pedro instead of Glavine, and Pelfrey with another year's experience. That's certainly functional if you find bullpen depth and a sixth starter who can keep you in games when called upon. The free agent market for relievers is still better than the market for starters, even with a few people already taken.
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But would Baumbach trade Reyes for Chamberlain or Hughes? The Mets' need is apparently greater (at least according to him), but Reyes for Santana would improve next year's Mets only slightly, if at all. And that's only before you factor in what you could get with the difference in their salaries. Sigh. Nobody's untouchable if dealing them gives the Mets a better chance of winning a title over the next three years. I don't foresee how any deal involving David Wright that could be offered to us would meet that criterion, but I suppose it's not absolutely impossible.
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Rotoworld was saying that Santana will only approve of a trade if there's a contract attached, which I'm sure would be just fine with all of his potential suitors. Reports are that the Yankees are willing to offer Hughes. We don't have a prospect of his stature, alas. Cabrera has five years before free agency (he's just under two full seasons), while Chavez has one. Other than that, they're equivalent players.
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Plus I don't think that giving up significant major league talent for Santana would lead to enough of a net benefit right now to justify the deal.
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Here's the catch: I think that the actual difference between Pelfrey and Humber is smaller than the perceived difference. So while I think more highly of Pelfrey (he's younger, more ML ready and doesn't have a major injury on his resum�), I don't think I could deal Humber and get what he's worth in return.
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Who knows? The fact that whoever deals for Santana will be giving up prospects in addition to inking the most expensive contract ever for a pitcher should make the the trading price less than it would look at face value. And if the A's put the much cheaper Haren and Blanton on the block, the Twins would be forced to ask for even less. Endy's one year from free agency. So is Oliver Perez. It would make no sense for the Twins to take either of them for Santana.
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You can't dwell on the what-ifs. Nor do I think you can take Duaner's contribution this year for granted. But at least he's throwing.
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Valadius wrote: I would hope and pray that we hold onto Martinez and Mulvey. The other name that we should also be paying attention to is Deolis Guerra. BA rated Guerra as the Mets #2, ahead of even Gomez. I don't see it, but if that's a commonly held belief around the league then I think he's being overvalued (i.e., the kind of guy you include in a deal).
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According to Rotoworld, the 5 for $93M offer from the Twins was just a four-year extension, with next year already guaranteed at $13M, so the two reported offers are actually the same. The counteroffer from Santana was apparently six years and $126M. The contract doesn't scare me, but the combination of the contract and the emptying out of the farm system makes me nervous. A trade involving a significant big leaguer would not improve this year's team enough to justify the cost. I'd offer Pelfrey, Gomez, and either A) Martinez or Guerra and Gotay. If the Twins bite, great; if not, I hold my cards and look elsewhere.
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A solid year with the AAA Durham Bulls. Can a compliment get any more backhanded?
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If Pedro or El Duque have down time before Garcia can help, he won't do much good. I like the idea of them waiting until he's finished rehab before showcasing him, because I don't think he's a good gamble right now.
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Stay, Go, or Call it Quits: 2007-2008 Offseason
smg58 replied to Valadius's topic in New York Mets Talk
The market is high again. I'm a bit surprised the Reds chose to be big free agent players, but you can't say they don't need bullpen help. -
Young Joe, The Forgotten Kennedy (Split from Stay, Go)
smg58 replied to DocTee's topic in New York Mets Talk
How horrible. He was only 28. My condolences to his family. Beyond that, I just don't know what to say. -
Frayed Knot wrote: ="smg58"]Hunter is younger than Vernon Wells but he's a better overall player, so this is where the market is. If we needed a CF, I'd have paid this much for him. ??? ... Wells is the younger player (by some 2-1/2 years) and, despite coming off a bad 2007, is the better player with the better upside IMO. Hunter to me has always been a somewhat more consistant version of Mike Cameron: similar fielders and sluggers with Hunter having a 20 pt edge in BA while Cameron has the same edge in OBA and is the better base-stealer. I meant to say that Hunter is older but the better overall player. I apologize for the typo, but given Hunter's defense, the infrequency with which Wells plays up to his potential, and the fact that Hunter has put up comparable overall numbers over the last few years in a less friendly park, I'd still take Hunter.
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I thought Linebrink was the most overrated of this year's group of FA relievers, so I don't mind seeing somebody else commit to him for four years. Riske has less of a rep and won't command more than Linebrink, but he's better. I'm definitely curious about Troy Percival's asking price.
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Matthews has a no-trade clause, I just found out. So either they know he'd agree to something, or they're fine with the rotation thing. Hunter is younger than Vernon Wells but he's a better overall player, so this is where the market is. If we needed a CF, I'd have paid this much for him.
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Passed balls, wild pitches, and stolen bases are largely equivalent, in the sense that the runners advance a base. SB's are more common, though. Blocking the plate usually makes the difference between a run and an out, so it's pretty important even though it doesn't happen that often. (Anybody know the statistic for how often plays at the plate happen, and how the different catchers vary in terms of not getting the out even when the throw arrives in time?) Any difference in a catcher makes in the performance of the pitcher matters a lot, but how do you quantify that? It's possible that pitchers could like working with a guy who doesn't actually help them. And it never hurts to hit like Piazza or Carter in their primes either, especially when the average catcher hits like Yorvit Torrealba. I think I'd need a good statistical analysis before I could reliably prioritize this.
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I'm not sure what happens with Matthews either. But all the teams known to have a need for a CF still need one, with Hunter off the market. I bet the Angels are thinking he's dealable.
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And Laird's putting up those mediocre numbers in Texas. His upside is Estrada's 2007 numbers. Would anybody here start him over Castro?
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The durability factor would make Blanton a better pick-up than Sheets. In fact, I don't know that Sheets would really make a good fit given that we already can't expect 30 starts from two of our guys.
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The Mets do have the option of non-tendering Estrada, but I don't see them using up bargaining chips on another catcher at this point unless Estrada's recovery from elbow surgery is going poorly, or another bargain offer for a catcher comes up.
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I have more confidence in Milledge than Fukudome. He's a front-line talent and it's time for him to show us what he's got. Not sure we can count on more games from Moises. I have to think and hope Delgado can bounce back some.
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He hits pretty well in even-numbered years. The guy has some upside if he can stay healthy. Most importantly the Mets gave up less than nothing to get him. Hard to like the walks, granted, but I have to give a thumbs-up to this one.
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Turnbow is trouble. The Mets can't afford another implosion waiting to happen in the pen. Especially if 140 IP is the most Sheets can give you.
