smg58

He can't be an any more improbable reclamation project than Ollie was, and he won't cost anything. So why not? If the Nationals were so unsure of him, why didn't they just nontender him? Releasing him now isn't any cheaper than demoting him and hoping he gets better would be. As it is, they're paying Felipe Lopez $5M to be a very disgruntled reserve, and either Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young will be an expensive backup as well. I'm trying to figure out why some of those guys are still there, being that they're expensive and can't help the team contend. On the other hand, between Johnson, Young, Lopez, and Brian Schneider, I'd have said Schneider had the least value.

NL East New York Philadelphia Washington Atlanta Florida NL Central Milwaukee Chicago Cincinnatti St. Louis Pittsburgh Houston NL West Arizona Colorado (WC) San Diego Los Angeles San Francisco AL East Boston New York Tampa Bay Toronto Baltimore AL Central Detroit Cleveland (WC) Chicago Kansas City Minnesota AL West LAA Seattle Texas Oakland Mets over Colorado Arizona over Milwaukee Mets over Arizona Detroit over LAA Boston over Cleveland Detroit over Boston Detroit over Mets (7 games)

Batting 1) Games Wright 2) Hits Wright 3) Doubles Wright 4) Triples Reyes 5) Home runs Wright 6) RBI Wright 7) Stolen Bases Reyes 8) Caught stealing Reyes 9) Runs scored Reyes 10) Batting average Wright 11) On base percentage Wright 12) Slugging percentage Wright 13) OPS Wright 14) Strikeouts Delgado 15) Walks Wright 16) Pinch-Hits Anderson Pitching 16) Wins Johan 17) Losses Perez 18) Strikeouts Johan 19) Walks Maine 20) ERA (starter - low) Johan 21) ERA (starter - high) Perez 22) ERA (reliever - low - min. 50 IP) Wagner 23) ERA (reliever - high - min. 50 IP) Schoeneweis 24) Saves Wagner 25) BAA (low) Wagner 26) BAA (high) Schoeneweis 27) Games started Johan 28) Games pitched Heilman 29) Innings Pitched Johan Player-Specific Predictions Predict the player's specific stats in the category selected. Two points if someone guesses the number exactly. If no one gets the exact number, one point will go to the people who are the closest to the actual result, either over or under. 28) Jose Reyes: OBP .375 29) Jose Reyes: SB 75 30) Jose Reyes: Extra-Base Hits 65 31) Jose Reyes: Rank in League MVP Voting 7th 32) Luis Castillo: OBP .350 33) Luis Castillo: SB 30 34) Carlos Beltran: HR 30 35) Carlos Beltran: SB 30 36) Carlos Beltran: RBI 100 37) Carlos Beltran: Rank in League MVP Voting 8th 38) David Wright: HR 35 39) David Wright: RBI 125 40) David Wright: Walks 90 41) David Wright: SB 35 42) David Wright: Rank in League MVP Voting 1st 43) Carlos Delgado: HR 30 44) Carlos Delgado: RBI 100 45) Carlos Delgado: K 143 46) Carlos Delgado: Games Played 135 47) Moises Alou: At-Bats 382 48) Moises Alou: RBI 68 48) Endy Chavez: At-Bats 200 49) Angel Pagan: At-Bats 200 50) Ryan Church: OPS .845 51) Ryan Church: HR 18 52) Ryan Church: Games Played 142 53) Brian Schneider: OPS .650 54) Brian Schneider: Caught Stealing % 23 55) Ramon Castro: Games Played 80 56) Marlon Anderson: OBP .325 57) Damion Easley: RBI 43 58) Johan Santana: W 20 59) Johan Santana: K 232 60) Johan Santana: ERA 2.32 61) Johan Santana: Rank in Cy Young Voting 1st 61) Johan Santana: Rank in League MVP Voting 4th 62) Pedro Martinez: IP 180 63) Pedro Martinez: W 16 64) Pedro Martinez: K 164 64) John Maine: W 16 65) John Maine: ERA 3.50 66) Oliver Perez: W 14 67) Oliver Perez: K 164 68) Oliver Perez: BB 75 69) Orlando Hernandez: Games Started 23 70) Orlando Herandez: IP 123 71) Mike Pelfrey: Games Started 11 72) Mike Pelfrey: ERA 4.15 73) Billy Wagner: Saves 33 74) Aaron Heilman: ERA 3.00 75) Duaner Sanchez: IP 65 76) Duaner Sanchez: ERA 3.23 77) Pedro Feliciano: ERA 3.00 78) Scott Schoeneweis: ERA 5.00 79) Jorge Sosa: IP 88 Name the top five Mets pitchers in Games Started in 2007. One point for each one named correctly. A bonus of five points for getting all five correct 80) Johan 81) Maine 82) Ollie 83) Pedro 84) El Duque Team Categories 84)Team ERA 3.43 85)Team batting average .275 86)Record 94-68 87)NL East Finish (1st, 2nd, etc.) 1st 88)Games behind NL East Winner 0 89)Playoffs (Division winner, Wildcard winner, no playoffs) Division winner 90)Playoff finish - (Win WS, Lose WS, Lose NLCS, Lose NLDS, no playoffs Lose WS Tie-breakers 1st tie breaker - pick the NL Central Division Champion Milwaukee 2nd tie breaker - pick then American League Champion Tigers

ATL - 84.5 under WASH - 70.5 over MILW - 84.5 over CINC - 79.5 over HOUS - 72.5 under ARIZ - 86.5 over COLO - 82.5 over SF - 71.5 under

Of course it's a moot point, but the spring training games evidently aren't giving us enough things to discuss.

The other defensive metrics suggest there's very little difference between Beltran and Crisp. It would be interesting to know what BP does differently. Look, if centerfield defense was a need for the Mets, I'd feel very differently about acquiring Crisp. But the Mets have Beltran, and in Chavez they already have an excellent defensive outfielder with a so-so bat and a history of injuries on the bench. If the Mets have a need to fill, it's for some pop with the bat.

The Fielding Bible gave Crisp a +22 in 1216 innings. By contrast, Beltran had a +25 in 1240 innings. (Basically, a player gets a +1 every time he makes a play that another player at his position failed to make, and a -1 every time he fails to make a play that somebody else did make. I think they base these on hang time for the ball and distance the fielder had to travel.) Crisp had a zone rating of .911 to Beltran's .908. These numbers certainly suggest that Crisp is a very good fielder, but suggesting his year might be historically good when he was not any better than the guy we've already got in center is an exaggeration. (Plus Endy had a zone rating in center of .960, in an admittedly small sample.) Angel Pagan's zone rating was .862 for center, in a small sample. I'm not sure how that translates to the league average, but an average CF would have a +/- of 0 -- meaning, roughly, he'd have made 11 of the 22 plus plays Crisp made and missed the other 11. So if Pagan is average (and not knowing his +/- or minor league fielding stats, I'm trusting the BP assessment), Crisp would save 11 hits over him if you needed to choose one as a full-time CF. We're talking about a fill-in in left field, though, and otherwise a general reserve whose time in center would most likely be limited.

Vic Sage wrote: Not only are Crisp's averages better than Pagan (in the minors and the majors), his potential peak is higher and their ages are close. The one reservation is a recent history of injuries. And, of course, there is his price tag. The .738 vs. .721 major league OPS isn't that big a difference. Plus, Crisp's ML numbers are weighted by a couple of years in Cleveland that are now squarely in the rear view mirror. I suppose those years in Cleveland raise Crisp's potential peak, but is he really any more likely to move forward from last year than the younger and healthier Pagan? And even without factoring in Pagan's spring, would you bet $10M on it? I wouldn't.

Beaten to the draw! Granted he had less ML AB's the past two years, but there's nothing in the numbers he put up and those that Crisp put up in 06 and 07 that would suggest Crisp is clearly better.

Meanwhile, Pagan just hit a pinch hit home run.

Triple Dee wrote: The other point is, I think it's redundant to have both Chavez and Pagan on the same 25 man roster (whether Alou is available or not). That's why I'd like the Mets to trade for somebody like Marcus Thames, who is a legitimate threat to hit the ball out of the park, in a back-up role. I'm good with that. Thames and Xavier Nady are guys I think you have to look into, as are Kendry Morales and Justin Huber, who aren't likely to make the Opening Day rosters of their current teams but would fit here.

The Alou injury will at least make it easier to assess Pagan, because we'll get to see if his hitting continues once the games start counting. He may already be preferable to Chavez, which makes me wonder if signing Chavez for two years instead of one was such a good idea. I think I'd still like to see a righty OF/1B with some pop brought in, but I've got no problem with riding Pagan while he's hot and hoping he stays hot indefinitely.

Offensive Categories Diamondbacks - Stolen Bases .............Tony Womack Cubs - RBI ...Ernie Banks White Sox - Runs ... Luis Aparicio Indians - Home Runs .....Rocky Colavito Tigers - Games .....Al Kaline Marlins - Hits ......Juan Pierre Angels - Home Runs .....Garrett Anderson Dodgers - Hits .....Gil Hodges Twins - Home Runs ...Harmon Killebrew Yankees - Hits ...Mickey Mantle Athletics - Hits ...Jimmie Foxx Giants - RBI ...Willie Mays Devil Rays - Home Runs Aubrey Huff Rangers - Hits ....Juan Gonzalez Blue Jays - Hits ... John Olerud Pitching Categories Braves - Strikeouts ...Warren Spahn Orioles - Saves ...Don Stanhouse Red Sox - Losses ...Roger Clemens Reds - Games ...David Weathers Rockies - Wins ...Jason Jennings Astros - Wins ...Nolan Ryan Royals - Strikeouts .... Bret Saberhagen Brewers - Strikeouts ... Ben Sheets Mets - Losses ...Jerry Koosman Phillies - Saves ...Tug McGraw Pirates - Innings Pitched...John Candelaria Padres - Wins ...Dave Dravecky Mariners - Innings Pitched ...Randy Johnson Cardinals - Saves ...Bruce Sutter Nationals - Games ...Jeff Reardon

Unfortunately, Ollie appears to have been one starter too many.

Lofton was still available last time I checked, although my first choice is still a righthanded bat. I mentioned Huber a couple of days ago, but I bet Marcus Thames could be had from Detroit, and I'd have to ask the Angels about Kendry Morales.

You can agree or disagree with how Phillips handled A-Rod, but what bothered me was how the media assumed he was making shit up. And then they never questioned Brian Cashman's statement that Boras offered Beltran to the Yankees at a discount.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: ="smg58"]...anybody who thinks the Mets can afford to reserve one bullpen spot for something like 50 low-impact innings is being silly. Wasn't that pretty much Sele's job last year? And we saw how that turned out.

While I think Gotay is redundant -- with Anderson and Valentin, the Mets need for another reserve second baseman who only hits righthanded pitching well is limited -- he does have value. The timing of a significant injury would really stink if the Orioles deal Brian Roberts this week, because the Orioles would then have a need that Gotay could fill if healthy. A significant injury to Gotay would open the 25th spot on the roster up for grabs, though. Maybe it will finally motivate the Mets to grab a righty bat with some pop who could cover them in the outfield and/or at first base, because I'm beginning to think that's a need more than a luxury.

I'm for bringing my best seven relievers up north with me. I'm fairly confident that Sosa is one of the seven, and while I'm much less certain about Schoeneweis, nobody has demonstrated otherwise just yet. The Mets can't assume that their pen will be significantly better, or will be needed for significantly less innings, than last year. That ought to be a strong enough disincentive against fooling around. I'll give Register a spot if he earns it, but he may simply not be ready, and anybody who thinks the Mets can afford to reserve one bullpen spot for something like 50 low-impact innings is being silly.

Sosa caved in September after throwing an insane 20 IP in his first month as a reliever. He could still be a valuable asset if you keep his workload reasonable. And he gives the team a legit spot starter option. He might not be so easy to replace. We've discussed Schoeneweis already. His contract will be a tough sell to another team. He's fine as a specialist, but if the Mets need innings from the pen like they did last year then he's not the guy. I'm not sure they can afford to give significant major-league innings to a work in progress like Register, either. But the Mets do have other pitchers in the system who at least have a chance of outperforming Schoeneweis and possibly Matt Wise as well.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm not worried about a bad start, I'm worried about an epidemic of bad health carrying over into the season. This team isn't a good enough to be hurt allatime. No team is. On the glass half full side, I'd much rather have a run of bad injury luck when the games don't count than after the season starts. In the big picture, Castillo's knees will be a matter of concern for the rest of his tenure as a Met, and Alou won't stay healthy all year. The other things have a chance of being forgotten by April.

Didn't the Phillies lose their first five games last year and basically have a terrible April? And today is March 2. I think we need to hide the panic button for the time being.

So I'd offer Joe Smith to the Royals for Justin Huber, and then Gotay to the Orioles for Chad Bradford. Huber would give our bench a legit righty bat, somebdy who's actually played first base, and a possble rightfield option against left-handed pitching.

Unless we got some decent prospects for Delgado after acquiring Teixeira, we would not have Santana. Now we have a decent chance of having both next year.

Church posted an .800+ OPS in a pitcher's park each of the last three seasons, and is a superior defensive outfielder at least at the corners. I don't buy his argument, on the grounds that the Nationals lowered his trade value more than they did his 2008 salary for another team, but I do think it's clear that the Nationals were not happy with him. Whether there is something in the "intangibles" department that works negatively against Church, or the Nationals were simply being stupid with him, remains to be seen. Then again, I don't think the Mets handled Milledge intelligently, either, and I'm not at all convinced that Church was the most undervalued player in that deal.