smg58
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Everything posted by smg58
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metirish wrote: WOW, apparently it would be for $9M per year in a three year deal......that's bloody crazy money for a guy who to me screams " .500 pitcher here"..... Other than last year, Fangraphs has never valued Wolf at more than $9M over a particular season. And he's at an age where he's far more likely to go backward than forward. On the other hand, he'll be getting his 10 minutes with Rick.
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It depends on how Francoeur responds to getting handed a full-time spot and a raise in arbitration. If we wind up paying $5M for a .650 OPS in right field, the Braves still get the last laugh.
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I'd prefer one year and an option, but he could be dealable at that price next year if he remains productive with the bat. He's not much to get excited about, but I don't think he'll hurt us either.
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He makes Mark Reynolds look like a contact hitter. He has some pop though, and could surprise people for a few weeks on a call-up before pitchers start taking him seriously. He looks like a decent guy to stash at AAA.
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As for Adam Kennedy, he's a platoon player at best and our reserve middle infielder also bats lefthanded.
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A second baseman with an OBP close to .400 is not somebody you have to deal. I don't like his defense and lack of power, or that he's at an age where he's more likely to regress with the bat than bounce back with the glove, but I see no point in getting pennies on the dollar for him. If I found a taker who could offer us a useful player that they're either somewhat overpaying or undervaluing, I'd do it. I would stay away from a deal that would require eating a chunk of Castillo's contract and getting nothing in return, and far away from taking on a worse contract (at this point, there are plenty of worse contracts than the $12M over two years he has left).
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I'd need a reason to believe he's over his various ailments from last season. Last year I took it for granted that the Mets wouldn't trade all those players for Putz if his health was still a major concern. I'd also be very suspicious if the Royals thought dealing Meche for Castillo was good for them. They've made some pretty dumb moves, granted, but that would just be bizarre if Meche were fine.
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Willingham has always been a pretty good hitter. His glove is below average, but has generally been tolerable. I'd need to know the asking price, but the Mets could do worse.
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The CERA's for the Mets catchers last year: Schneider -- 4.72 in 437 innings Santos -- 4.47 in 680 innings Castro -- 4.49 in 181 innings Thole -- 4.18 in 127 innings You have to go back to 2004 to find a year where Schneider had a lower CERA than his primary backup. That's enough time to be meaningful. Thole's numbers probably aren't a big enough sample size to talk of him too favorably, but at least it's encouraging. I suppose Castro left Santos the keys to the doghouse. I have to agree with the survival mode comment, though. Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, Perez, and Rodriguez all regressed and/or got hurt, with only Feliciano showing a clear improvement from the previous year. I'm sure Warthen would love to see the blame get placed on departed catchers.
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Pelfrey's younger, and probably has the most upside at this point.
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Blanco is officially in for $1.5M. So if we do get another catcher, I guess Santos is sent down?
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http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-one/ An interesting article on the value of draft picks above their cost. Based on the author's estimates, the draft picks the Red Sox obtained are worth $8M total on average (with obviously huge error bars; the Sox could get two hall-of-famers, or they could get two career minor leaguers). The Mets saved nearly half of that in salary owed to a guy whose on-field performance no longer benefited them. A quality reserve making the league minimum over a few years could make up the difference, and Carter has enough upside to suggest that's possible.
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I was kind of worried that Polanco would get less per year than Castillo. He'll lose some value at third base, and his age will be an issue by the end of the deal, but he's still an outstanding defender who probably got unlucky at the plate last year.
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Vince Coleman Firecracker wrote: Mets lose out on 2 good draft picks. Not happy about how this move turned out at all. Kinda angry, actually. It's tough to gauge the value of the $3.5M the Mets saved. It could be the difference between landing Holliday or Lackey and settling for not exactly. Or it could just get pocketed. We may only be able to speculate on that. Chris Carter could turn out to be a useful player on a playoff caliber team, too. He strikes me as the kind of player who just needs a team to give him a chance. At any rate, we'll be able to evaluate the short-term ramifications soon enough. And yes, there's a risk of the deal looking very shortsighted later.
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Seven years is the norm when a player in his twenties signs. Halladay can ask for (and will get) low twenties on a per-year basis, because that's what Johan and CC are getting, but I'd stop at five years.
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Kelly Shoppach is a Ray, for a PTBNL. On one hand, he regressed when a starting job was his to lose, and I was leery of giving up something for him and then paying an arbiter's price. On the other hand, he still had a higher OPS last year than Bengie Molina. Add Dioner Navarro to, and cross out Shoppach from, the list of likely non-tenders.
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Krivsky got Phillips from Cleveland, who got him from Minaya. Volquez was good for the Reds last year, but dealing Josh Hamilton for him while holding onto Griffey and Dunn (both in their walk years) was probably what got him fired. He got the most heat from Reds fans for dealing Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for bullpen help and prospects. So far, the most "valuable" player acquired in that deal has been Brendan Harris, whom Krivsky later dealt to the Rays (for I'm not sure what, but the Rays turned him over to the Twins the following year as part of one of the most lopsided deals of the decade). At any rate, the Nats got an outfielder worth far less than his contract and an infielder who stunk in Washington and then became good again once he changed teams.
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http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/11/30/cora-close-to-deal-with-mets/ Oh great. Another $2M for this guy? While I appreciate the fact that he played hurt last year, there's no reason to think he's even an upgrade over Anderson Hernandez, who's making the league minimum.
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Bonds was a hall-of-famer without the roids. I don't believe that McGwire was. Either way, he's not close to the player that Bonds was. I'm still not sure how I feel about the steroids issue regarding the Hall of fame. And until I can make up my mind on a consistent and impartial way to adress it, I can't justify voting for anybody suspicious, including Bonds. But Blyleven, Raines, and Alomar get my vote, even though I'm still puzzled/annoyed at how Robbie turned mediocre the minute he donned the orange and blue.
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I'd ask about Johnson. I'd also ask about Ricky Nolasco -- the price difference might be larger than the difference in future results will be.
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The Blue Jays sign Alex Gonzalez for a year and $2.75M, and re-sign John McDonald for $1.5M. They're obviously prioritizing defense. Scutaro is presumably heading elsewhere.
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The first free agent to sign is Andruw Jones, who takes a slight pay cut to sign with the White Sox for half a million.
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He's capable of helping next year's team, and I'm worried that because he had a bad first month in the majors and then got hurt we'd be selling low. I'd be careful with him.
