Carson Benge's Newfound Power Is Proof That Averages Don't Define Baseball

The New York Mets' playoff hopes are by no means back in business, but they’ve done enough to forestall foreclosure. Entering May, the Mets owned a 10-21 record, built on the tidal cesspool 3-17 stretch from April 8 to April 30, but their 11-6 start to May has them at 21-27 and gives them an outside chance to make a real postseason push. While everything that can go wrong has and did go wrong, Carson Benge’s May surge, one horrific defensive play aside, has been central to the Mets’ turnaround. 

To put it mildly, Benge’s April was as bad as the Mets' was. Over his first 97 career plate appearances, he hit two home runs, two doubles, and struck out 23.7% of the time to produce a 52 wRC+. To put that offensive ineptitude in perspective, that’s the career wRC+ of Sad Sam Jones (who I swear is a real person), a pitcher from 1914 to 1935. Needless to say, you probably want to outhit a mediocre pre-war pitcher if you plan to stick around in the bigs. Fortunately, the calendar turned to May, and we might as well call him Carson Binge. 

In 66 May plate appearances, Benge has been on fire. He has cut his strikeout rate to 14.1% and posted a wRC+ of 165. While that has only been thanks to one home run and five doubles, Benge has started to get far more out of his contact, even if it's been in a subtle way.

The funny thing about hitting is that averages can be misleading, and I’m not talking about batting averages. Benge is hitting for more power in May than in April, but you’d never guess based on his average batted ball metrics. I mean, how is he hitting for more power doing this?

Your eyes do not deceive you. Benge is hitting fewer fly balls, more ground balls, is pulling it less, and hitting it hard less often in May (the month where he has basically hit like Juan Soto) than in April, when he hit like Sad (Sack) Sam Jones. So, what the heck is going on? Well, like I said, averages are deceiving. 

While hitting the ball hard, in the air, and to the pull side is a great way to post elite batting lines, you’ve got to do all three at the same time for it to matter. You can hit a ball 120 MPH to the pull side, but if it goes straight into the ground, you’re probably running past first base, straight down the right field line, and into the showers, because you just grounded out to end the game. So, while Benge, on average, isn’t hitting the ball hard and in the air more frequently, when he is hitting the ball hard, he’s getting it off the ground more often, which is actually what matters. 

Using 100 MPH batted balls as our proxy for smoking the ball, we can see how Benge’s slow stretch to start the season was largely due to hitting his best struck balls straight into the ground. 

*Stats in graph charted as of May 18

When you factor in his improved contact figures, it’s not hard to figure out why Benge started binging, and his rolling 100+ MPH launch angle average just so happens to look eerily similar to his rolling wOBA. 
 

Instead of focusing on averages, which can be obscured a bit by one freak batted ball, it’s even easier to see why Benge’s batting line has taken off. Using April 15 as the date of demarcation, Benge has done a much better job of getting his best contact off the ground. 

In the early going, 40% of Benge’s best batted balls were grounders, while only 40% were line drives or fly balls. Now, 60% of his premium contact has been a line drive or fly ball, and only 20% is headed for the dirt. Hard ground balls can become hits, possibly even a double, but the chances are low, and the upside is minimal. When you clobber the ball, you want it to have a chance to find a seat, not have it play around in the dirt. 

It should be noted that some of Benge’s turnaround is down to better luck. He posted a BABIP of .231 in April and is at .426 in May. Hitting them where they ain’t is still an undefeated strategy, but BABIP isn’t just about luck. Benge, despite lifting more of his best contact, is still a lower launch angle hitter. That means when he does lift the ball, he’s far less likely to hit it in the can-o-corn range, where even elite exit velocities go to die. As long as he continues to limit his worm burners, he should maintain an above-league-average BABIP. 

We might track and analyze hitting largely through averages, but at its core, it’s all about events. Having an average exit velocity of 75 MPH would be dreadful, but if you hit one ball 100 MPH and another 50 MPH, you’re probably going to have a hit to your name. Carson Benge has turned his season around by getting the most out of his batted ball events. He won’t continue to post a BABIP above .400, but he doesn’t need to in order to help the Mets achieve liftoff.