Bo Bichette Returns, Adding An Additional Layer of Complexity to Mets' Offseason Plans

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Bo Bichette is making the easy play. He's opting into a $42 million salary for the 2027 season to remain with the New York Mets, electing not to test the free-agent market.

He restored some of his market value with hot streaks in June and August after a poor April and May, but with baseball's economic future unknown, $42 million guaranteed after an 0.7 bWAR campaign seemed impossible to pass up.

The Mets surely planned for an offseason in which with their third baseman stayed. But will the decision be a drag on those plans? Let's try to answer that question with other questions.

Where Does Mets' Payroll Stand After Bo Bichette's Contract Decision?

Well, the simple analysis is that the Mets' payroll might be busted, which is weird to say when Steve Cohen is writing the checks. The top of the roster is much pricier with Bichette back; the nine largest contracts have a combined average annual value (AAV) of $208.8 million for luxury-tax calculations, per Cot's Contracts. Four of those contracts are close to untradeable: Marcus Semien ($24 million AAV), Sean Manaea ($22 million), Jorge Polanco ($20 million), and Kodai Senga ($15 million).

Add the $6 million they're sending the Pittsburgh Pirates to cover half of Luke Weaver's 2027 salary, and the Mets are at $214.8 million with 17 spots to fill on the 26-man Opening Day roster.

MLB Trade Rumors projects the Mets' 10 arbitration-eligible players will make $19 million in '27. Those players, plus the club's pre-arb core -- Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton -- will fill most of the open spaces, but upgrades are needed, and that will cost money.

Cohen sounded unsure in the summer about spending big this offseason. He said 2027 will be a "weird year." He alluded to Bichette's opt-in. Labor talks were hanging over the discussion, too. A real payroll limit may be forced upon Cohen if the owners defeat the players in negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement.

The Mets can therefore use this winter to reset the payroll and then charge ahead under the new system.

Are the Mets' Pitching Plans Destroyed?

Not really. Tarik Skubal and Sandy Alcantara appear spoken for with the Dodgers and Marlins, respectively, and other free-agent starters can give the Mets the innings they need. Michael King, Sonny Gray, Trevor Rogers and old friend Freddy Peralta are all on the market. The Mets reportedly scouted Japanese star Kaima Taira, who is waiting to be posted by his NPB club.

There's the trade market, too. Joe Ryan from the Twins? Bryce Miller or George Kirby from the Mariners? Reid Detmers from the Angels? A reunion with Jacob deGrom? Team president David Stearns should have the organizational depth to deal for those types of arms after collecting 11 prospects at the deadline.

As for the bullpen, Stearns might be wise not to spend a lot on it. He should pursue a setup arm/backup closer after Devin Williams ($15 million tax figure) turned in a shaky first season with the club, but David Bednar will cost a bundle after his big year with the Yankees and Adrian Morejon's market could overheat.

The Mets got by with a cheap relief corps after the trade deadline. Daniel Duarte and Nate Lavender emerged from the group that was assembled in August. Dedniel Nunez appeared to regain his pre-surgery form. Jefry Yan proved to be a fun wild card. Dylan Ross and Jack Weisenburger were called up for brief looks. Reed Garrett worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. Stearns can keep stockpiling interchangeable arms to supplement those on the 40-man.

Are the Mets Out of the Teruaki Sato Derby?

That's assuming they're in it. Sato is seen as a bat-first third baseman/right fielder. Carson Benge occupies right field and Bichette's opt-in decision was seen as a mere formality. In other words, there has never been a natural position fit with Sato in New York.

But Sato's bat is quite enticing. Could the Mets move pieces to accommodate it? Maybe Benge could move to left field and Juan Soto could finally become an everyday DH. Maybe Bichette could move to second base and the club could dump Semien's remaining $48 million via trade or release.

Still, that's a lot of hypotheticals to consider for one guy. And the Mets would still be competing with clubs that don't need to jump through as many hoops to add Sato. The rest of the free-agent market, plus the trade market, can make up for not signing him.