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    New York Mets Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Mark Vientos

    Analyzing the metrics behind Vientos' 2025 and 2026 regression and what they mean for his upcoming trip through arbitration with the Mets.

    Brian Shrum
    Image courtesy of John Jones-Imagn Images

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    Mark Vientos was selected 59th overall by the New York Mets in the second round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft. He slugged his way through the minor leagues and made his major-league debut in September of the 2022 season.

    After that point, Vientos moved between Syracuse and Queens in the 2023 season. However, in 2024, he exploded onto the national scene where he smashed 27 home runs in 111 regular season games before carrying the offense with an elite postseason slash line of .327/.362/.636 to cement himself as a core component of the Mets' postseason magic.

    Despite the strong 2024 postseason, Vientos wasn't able to build on that momentum; his numbers fell sharply over the 2025 and 2026 seasons. During the 2025 campaign, he played a career high 121 games, but his offensive numbers regressed. He hit .233/.289/.413 (.702 OPS) with 17 home runs and his overall offensive output dipped slightly below league average with an OPS+ of 97. A 2026 rebound did not happen due to poor quality of contact and limited playing time. Vientos struggled across the 87 games he appeared in this past season, scraping together a .212/.258/.394 (.652 OPS) slash line with 13 home runs in 274 at-bats. His plate discipline metrics also got worse, as he posted a 24.1% strikeout rate and a low 5.1% walk rate.

    Further complicating his profile was a steep defensive decline that left him without a stable position, dropping his total 2026 value to -1.1 fWAR. Now entering salary arbitration for the first time in his career, the Mets' front office faces a valuation dilemma: Can Vientos return to his elite 2024 level, or has his offensive floor fallen too low to justify a roster spot?

    Mark Vientos' Arbitration Case At A Glance

    2026 Stats: 87 G, 295 PA, .212/.258/.394 (.652 OPS), 13 HR, 11 2B, 0 3B, 41 RBI, 5.1 BB%, 24.1 K%

    2023 Salary: $720,000
    2024 Salary: $740,000
    2025 Salary: $788,750
    2026 Salary: $813,750

    Mets Depth at First Base, Third Base and DH
    Bo Bichette: 40-man roster
    Brett Baty: 40-man roster
    Christopher Morel: 40-man roster
    Ronny Mauricio: 40-man roster
    Jorge Polanco: 40-man roster
    Minor Leagues: Eric Wagaman, Christian Cairo

    The depth chart blocking Vientos is crowded and highly versatile, causing a significant barrier to his playing time. Everyday duties at third base belong to Bo Bichette (for now) and even when he needs a day, other utility guys like Brett Baty and Christopher Morel provide infield coverage.

    Vientos' lack of defensive flexibility and his -9 Outs Above Average (OAA) this past season have forced him off the field at times and into a designated hitter role. The DH spot is anything but wide open for the Mets; with offensive weapons like Juan Soto, the team frequently uses the DH spot to cycle bats through the lineup or give regular rest to catcher Francisco Alvarez.

    Another depth chart player who hurts Vientos' playing time is veteran infielder Jorge Polanco, who missed time in 2026 but remains on the 40-man roster for 2027. Ronny Mauricio also provides depth, which makes the infield options even more plentiful. Because of that, Vientos is no longer a foundational necessity. Instead, he has been pushed to the fringes of a deep position group which has turned his spot on the roster from a guarantee into a luxury depth question.

    Why the Mets Should Tender Mark Vientos A Contract

    Despite the 2026 regression, there is still a compelling financial case for the Mets front office to tender Mark Vientos a contract this winter. In his first year of arbitration eligibility, his projected salary is somewhere in the range of $1.4 to $1.8 million. Paying less than $2 million for a player who has proven right-handed power presents a budget-friendly gamble for a high-budget franchise like the Mets. 

    The core argument for tendering him a contract centers around his raw offensive potential and his multi-positional versatility, as he can play either corner of the infield. Given the current state of the team and his lackluster glove, however, his everyday future is probably best suited for the designated hitter role. Right-handed bench bats that can hit for power and drive in runs with one swing of the bat are hard to acquire on the open market or via trade at a fair price. 

    If the Mets were to tender him a contract this winter and Vientos goes through spring training showing shades of his dominant 2024 postseason, the Mets could secure a premium offensive weapon at a heavily discounted price. At worst, the team eats his marginal 2027 salary while opening up a 40-man roster spot by cutting him.

    Why the Mets Should Non-Tender Mark Vientos

    As cheap as a projected $1.4 million to $1.8 million arbitration salary might be, the Mets' front office operates on a roster-flexibility-first mentality. For a player who does not provide defensive or baserunning value, Vientos needs to hit at an elite level to justify a spot on a competitive roster, and he did the exact opposite of that in 2026. 

    The underlying data exposes that he has become highly volatile and difficult to have in the lineup consistently. As mentioned earlier, his 24.1% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate show his struggles with plate discipline. When power hitters stop drawing walks and strike out almost a quarter of the time, their offensive floor starts to tumble.

    In search of more surefire infield upgrades this offseason, the front office could easily decide to non-tender Vientos to clear a roster spot.

    Prediction 

    Despite the alarming regression in 2026, expect the Mets to tender Vientos a contract for the 2027 season, worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million. His raw power remains too valuable to cut loose for the amount the Mets would pay. 

    However, his roster spot is far from safe heading into next spring. He will enter spring training without a guaranteed role and will need to fight for a 26-man roster spot. If his plate discipline fails to rebound early in 2027, the Mets won't hesitate to make moves, but for now his cheap price tag gives him another chance in Queens.

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