On Notice at 75

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

People who've studied this kinda thing have concluded "anything can happen in 75 PA" and after that, things start to look like what they'll what they'll look like. Against urges to think otherwise, I'd agree and try to tell myself it's only fair to give them another 75 and then see.

The following Mets have reached the 75 threshhold:

Cabrera 84 PA: 2-10 256/310/359//688 Barely acceptable. On notice.

Bruce 83 PA: 6-14 292/386/569//955 Unfortunately, anything can happen in 75 PA

Walker 82 PA: 2-9/197/280/324//604 That's not good enough to play 2B every day. On notice.

Reyes 78 PA: 0-0 114/205/143//348 (!!) It only stands to reason he hasn't even driven in a run yet but that still surprises me and would suggest he's killing us anywhere we put him. Duh, on notice.

Granderson 77 PA: 1-6 141/195/239//434 (!!!?) Maybe centerfield doesn't sit well with him. Maybe he's 36. Maybe he needs to transition into the lefthanded pinch hitter we need once the Dude comes back. Very much IMO on notice.

*
Cespedes 73 PA 6-10 262/370/607//976

Will check back if and when these guys reach 150. What a fucking disaster.

[metirish]

Can't we just look at baseball cards and forget this stuff

[seawolf17]

People who've studied this kinda thing have concluded "anything can happen in 75 PA" and after that, things start to look like what they'll what they'll look like. Against urges to think otherwise, I'd agree and try to tell myself it's only fair to give them another 75 and then see. The following Mets have reached the 75 threshhold: Cabrera 84 PA: 2-10 256/310/359//688 Barely acceptable. On notice. Bruce 83 PA: 6-14 292/386/569//955 Unfortunately, anything can happen in 75 PA Walker 82 PA: 2-9/197/280/324//604 That's not good enough to play 2B every day. On notice. Reyes 78 PA: 0-0 114/205/143//348 (!!) It only stands to reason he hasn't even driven in a run yet but that still surprises me and would suggest he's killing us anywhere we put him. Duh, on notice. Granderson 77 PA: 1-6 141/195/239//434 (!!!?) Maybe centerfield doesn't sit well with him. Maybe he's 36. Maybe he needs to transition into the lefthanded pinch hitter we need once the Dude comes back. Very much IMO on notice. * Cespedes 73 PA 6-10 262/370/607//976 Will check back if and when these guys reach 150. What a fucking disaster.

Cut Walker/Reyes/Granderson and let the fuckin' kids play.

metirish wrote: Can't we just look at baseball cards and forget this stuff

I do that regularly. Hasn't helped.

[metirish]

I would be fine with those cuts, I'm done with them , Granderson is a great guy yyybbb, tired of hearing the booth push that angle too.

[Guest cooby]

I've already cut Reyes and benched Granderson on my fantasy team. Painless

[Edgy MD]

Nobody's cutting Walker and Granderson any time soon.

I'm not sure which kids are going to play for Granderson, but there's a good chance he sees a lot more pine once Duda returns. Nimmo also began his rehab assignment for St. Lucie last night, going 1-3 with a walk, a double, 3 runs scored and 2 RBI.

[Frayed Knot]

This season has been bad even by Granderson's usual standard of bad Aprils

2017: .195/.239/.292 // 434

2016: .241/.347/.471 // 818

2015: .231/.362/.321 // 682

[metirish]

Edgy MD wrote: Nobody's cutting Walker and Granderson any time soon. I'm not sure which kids are going to play for Granderson, but there's a good chance he sees a lot more pine once Duda returns. Nimmo also began his rehab assignment for St. Lucie last night, going 1-3 with a walk, a double, 3 runs scored and 2 RBI.

absolutly, they won't get cut, very frustrating though

[Benjamin Grimm]

Granderson has rewarded our patience in the past. I'm not confident he'll do so again but there's no reason to consider cutting him. (Trading him might be another matter...)

I'm sure that the Mets have some offensive hot streaks ahead of them, and some winning streaks, but it's getting late early. Losing nine of ten, no matter what time of year, puts you in a pretty deep hole.

[Guest d'Kong76]

April anxiety, lose today and they're the last place Mets.

[HahnSolo]

tying run to the plate. That top-9 run off Familia looms large.

[HahnSolo]

Maybe not.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Will check back if and when these guys reach 150. What a fucking disaster.

Well I'm a little late with this as we've blown past the 150 PA checkpoint but here's how it looks:

Cabrera 84 PA: 2-10 256/310/359//688 Barely acceptable. On notice.

Now at 124 PAs and still barely acceptable: .242/.319/.363

Bruce 83 PA: 6-14 292/386/569//955 Unfortunately, anything can happen in 75 PA

Now at 196 PA and not surprisingly returning to Earth: .249/.327/.514//.841

Walker 82 PA: 2-9/197/280/324//604 That's not good enough to play 2B every day. On notice.

I guess he got the message at 199 PA: 268/.332/.447//.779 That's OK though not for a clean up man.

Reyes 78 PA: 0-0 114/205/143//348 (!!) It only stands to reason he hasn't even driven in a run yet but that still surprises me and would suggest he's killing us anywhere we put him. Duh, on notice.

Now at 190 PA and basically doubled his figures but still not great: 207/.282/.337//.619 . It does indicate a better next-75 trend.

Granderson 77 PA: 1-6 141/195/239//434 (!!!?) Maybe centerfield doesn't sit well with him. Maybe he's 36. Maybe he needs to transition into the lefthanded pinch hitter we need once the Dude comes back. Very much IMO on notice.

176 PAs: .178/.256/.350//.606
*

Cespedes 73 PA 6-10 262/370/607//976

Only 2 more PAs till he got hurt.

I think it's clear that Rosario and Zimmo ought to take over for Cabrera/Reyes and Grandy, respectively, by now, even if their next 75 PA improved on their first 75 they're still not getting it done. In the meantime Rene Rivera (OPS 679 in 97 PA); Flores (769 OPS in 96 PA) and TJR (722 OPS in 102 PA) crossed the 75 PA threshhold in decent shape.

Travis d'Arnaud, now at 76 PAs looks OK but it's all slugging with him. 221/303/515

Doodoo by the way is just fine

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

The Mets offense is basically built upon solo home runs. The Mets line up consists almost entirely of aging power hitters that hit for a low batting average with poor OBP. Throw in the fact that there is very little speed in the line up and you are left with station to station baseball with a high percentage of stranded base runners because virtually no one can be counted on to drive them in with any regularity. What else can we realistically expect from a line up constructed in such a manner?

[Guest cooby]

Spot on

[Edgy MD]

The Mets offense has been hit and miss, but the solo home run assessment is more true of 2016. The power has been largely damaged by the disabled list assignments of several players, and Granderson's no-show season so far, but this year they strangely had been leading the league in BA with RISP, at least 'til last night.

While that's been a godsend, it's clearly unsustainable. The problem, besides the missing power, has been the lack of guys IN scoring position. Getting guys on is an issue that has persisted from year to year. The Mets getting no baserunners from the fifth 'til the 10th last night was moider. After chasing the starter, they should have put those Buccos away.

[Frayed Knot]

For all the chattering about the offense and who should be replaced, the team is sitting 2nd in the NL in RS/G
And, while it's an offense that's still somewhat HR-dependent, they're actually just 5th in the league there and only a shade below average in OBP [.318 vs NL/Avg of .321]
And that's with just over a combined 200 ABs for the supposed starting catcher, LF and 1B - less than half of the 550 or so you'd expect from full timers.
It's pretty clear that Cespedes (starting next week?, next month?) is going to take most of Granderson's ABs so that's going to be some kind of upgrade, while d'Arnaud & Duda look to reclaim at least
some of the temporary gains we got out of dos Riveras



It is of course the pitching which is in a position I like to call DFL: DFL in RA, in ERA, and baserunners (WHIP). Also 4th most HRs allowed, 3rd most walks allowed, highest BA-against and OBP-against
And it's here where they'll need some combo of Reed, Robles, Harvey, Matz, Gsellman and maybe Smoker to step up their games because Syndergaard and Familia aren't walking through the clubhouse
door anytime soon.

[Edgy MD]

So KEEP CALM AND REHABILITATE YOUR PITCHERS is the order of the day.

[ashie62]

Matz on Tuesday?

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: So KEEP CALM AND REHABILITATE YOUR PITCHERS is the order of the day.

Well, more or less, yeah. Because if the pitching -- which most assumed would be the league's best or, at worst, top three -- continues to suck at near record pace, then you can sit all the veterans, bring
up youngsters and dump salaries to your heart's content, but it ain't gonna make a bit of difference.