Forseeing Seventeen: Travis d'Arnaud

[Edgy MD]

So sometimes I call Michael Conforto up. I do. "Michael," I says, "you regressed last year. It sucks but it happens. But you know what? I totally out-regressed you."

I mean to comfort him. I'm not sure it does. Last year was real. It happened. But you know what? The year before was real too. And somewhere among all those injuries and between those years lies the real me? Which one is it? Get your bets on the table.

[fimg=395:8h7ce6vl]http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/files/2014/03/USATSI_7407034_149008644_lowres.jpg[/fimg:8h7ce6vl] [fimg=355:8h7ce6vl]http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/Travis-d-arnaud-Mets-triple-a-060814.jpg[/fimg:8h7ce6vl]
[fimg=352:8h7ce6vl]http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1810999.1401426419!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_970/minsider30s-1-web.jpg[/fimg:8h7ce6vl] [fimg=398:8h7ce6vl]http://cache3.asset-cache.net/xc/495015952-travis-darnaud-of-the-new-york-mets-bats-against-the.jpg?v=2&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=X7WJLa88Cweo9HktRLaNXrPKd83L355IxxNS2DFMv_8ZucLahIfSVj4ZU7W1PU850&b=NEY=[/fimg:8h7ce6vl]

[Guest 41Forever]

Been listening to Terry's daily briefings on the podcast, and Travis seems to come up every day. TC keeps talking about how his swing was messed up and he kept doing different things and it just made it worse. They're focusing on keeping him doing the same thing.

Terry also said that Travis is the catcher, and he's going to catch all the pitchers, making it seem like none of them are going to have Rivera as a personal catcher.

I don't know. What else is Terry going to say at this point? He's said that everyone is allowed to have a bad year. I suspect they're not going to give him too much time to stay lost.

Then again, if they'd winning because the other big bats are producing and Travis is calling good games and the pitchers are thriving -- and runners aren't stealing every time they get on base -- I can see them giving him more slack.

I'm predicting he takes a step forward and has an acceptable year.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The thing is, if he has a good year, look out.

But I'm from Missouri on this guy. Show me!

Predicting 13-41 242/302/416 in 108 games, 421 PAs (exact 2014 numbers)

[ashie62]

Finishes on DL or with another team.

[MFS62]

Guilty until proven innocent. .245-12-38 in 110 games interrupted by 3 stays on the DL.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Pretty d'amn d'ecent.
480 PA, .268/.329/.440, 58 R, 18 HR, 66 RBI

[Guest d'Kong76]

I've pretty much given up on him, please pass d'gravy in 2017

[Lefty Specialist]

MFS62 wrote: Guilty until proven innocent. .245-12-38 in 110 games interrupted by 3 stays on the DL. Later

This is where I am. I'm unconvinced he can put together a healthy, productive season. Work hard, Tomas Nido.

[TransMonk]

Must. Stay. Healthy.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

What do you guys think of this guy so far?

I have to say he has very quietly impressed me with some quickness around the plate I hadn't noticed before and though he's still a bit hacky at the plate and makes too many outs but his Cluelessness Factor has dropped by about 30% this year, which is encouraging. If he'd learn how to be an aggressive-hitting walk-taker, like Doodoo, he'd be a real asset.

Lots of people anxious to move on from Travvy. I would be if he hadn't improved, but it looks like he has. At least a little.

[Edgy MD]

It's an offseason decision, but I think he's just not a natural authority taker. You've got to project, This is MY field to the pitcher, to the defense, to the ball, and to the ump. And I think if it's a question of finding your inner Grote, and maybe having a catching instructor around and staying healthy for a few months has helped him do that a little.

I still think his swing is too long, but certainly not as much as it was. It's nice to see him finally picking up some RBI.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Lots of people anxious to move on from Travvy. I would be if he hadn't improved, but it looks like he has. At least a little.

Has he? I feel like in his previous spurts between injuries he was better. He's at a 92 wRC+ but only a .300 OBP. It's better than last year where he was walking less AND not driving the ball, but it's still below his career average. Of 53 catchers with at least 100 PA, he's 29th in fWAR. 25th in wRC+. 28th in BB%.

He's swinging way more. He's making better contact when he does hit it, but he's doing that less. his swinging strike rate is way up too. Given ball tweaks I'm not sure how much credit he should get for better contact either. He needs to stop swinging so much, at least out of the zone, and take a few more walks.

I'm not necessarily ready to 'move on' but It's gotta at least be a thought. It's probably relatively easy to get some of those catchers ahead of him, though some are aging. Alex Avila? Kevin Plawecki is tearing up Vegas, can we at least get him Rene's starts and see what he can do with another shot?

[Farmer Ted]

It never seems as if TDA ever gets into a groove. There's always an ache, a pain, or a kick to the temple. I'm all about John Stearns. Love me some Stearnsy. Can't get enough of the Bad Dude. With Piazza as an outlier, Stearns falls into the quintessential Mets catcher slot. So let's compare career numbers as another point of discussion:

Bad Dude: .260 BA, .341 OBP, .375 SLG, career high HR 15, 37% caught stealing
TDA: .244 BA, .309 OBP, .401 SLG, career high HR 13 (at 9 this season), 22% caught stealing

[Lefty Specialist]

Having Piazza will always skew a Met fan's perception of catcher value. That being said, Darno has been a disappointment. I can move on.

[Frayed Knot]

He's 28 y/o and is under club control for two more seasons after this one. Not that any of that makes him an untouchable (or even a Brahmin) but if you're of a mind to move on from Td'A I hope
you have something other than 'more R Rivera' or 'hopefully Plawecki' as a backup plan.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He's not Piazza nor Stearns, don't get me wrong, and I acknowledge his hackiness. My remark was more to a few quick plays in front of the plate over the past few weeks that I wouldn't have expected he would make. That and the idea that he might hit 20 bombs. I'm calling it a small improvement. Less clueless!