Wheeler's Right

[Edgy MD]

The bullpen is a Catch-22. If a starter finds himself assigned there because of a numbers game, because of an injury or because of a rough patch in his work as a starter, it becomes a trap that's hard to escape from. If you pitch poorly, you get damned to struggle at the back end of the bullpen, and you can't get your starting job back, because you clearly can't start if you can't relieve. But if you pitch well, your success is credited at least in part to pitching in relief, and you can't get your starting job back, because you've locked down a role in the pen—seventh-inning, eighth-inning guy, long man, LOOGy, whatever)—and that apple cart can't be upset.

[Vic Sage]

if a starter performs in the bullpen, it doesn't mean he'll stay there. Starters go down all the time, and spot starts here and there, will all give a SP in the pen an opportunity. If he excels, he'll likely force his way back into the rotation. If he doesn't, he doesn't.

[Edgy MD]

But they don't tend to force their way back into the rotation. Parnell didn't. Heilman didn't. Mejia didn't. Familia didn't. They came up, didn't immediately perform as starters—at least, not consistently enough to lock down the job—and found themselves in the pen. And no matter how well they performed, their chances as starters ran dry very quickly.

They became locked into a role and the next guy and the next guy got the starting opportunities.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, Wheeler had a track record as a starter before the injury. I don't think they'll bury him in the bullpen; I think the intent is to get him stretched out gradually. With this staff and the injuries/innings limitations, I'd expect he'll get his chances.

[Edgy MD]

I do too, but I understand his trepidations.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: But they don't tend to force their way back into the rotation. Parnell didn't. Heilman didn't. Mejia didn't. Familia didn't. They came up, didn't immediately perform as starters—at least, not consistently enough to lock down the job—and found themselves in the pen. And no matter how well they performed, their chances as starters ran dry very quickly. They became locked into a role and the next guy and the next guy got the starting opportunities.

That's true, except when it isn't. With regard to former Mets pitchers, RA Dickey was a starter who got stuck in the pen early in his career before eventually getting a chance to start again, resulting in a CY. Colin McHugh went from a minor-league starter to our bullpen to a decent starter for, who, Houston i think? Humber, too, was a starter that went from a pen role to a starting role. Miguel Batista went back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen throughout his career.

Wheeler was a dominant minor-league starter (a "blue chip" prospect as it were), who showed flashes of excellence as a starter for the Mets, albeit with inconsistent command. If he starts in the Mets pen, he'll only stay there if (a) every other starter stays healthy and productive [likelihood = .01%], or ( he doesn't outpitch any of the starters. If he's successful in the pen, even if he can't push past Gsellman, there will be suitors lined up to give up top prospects for a guy we're using in middle relief who could be a top-end starter somewhere else. I understand his having concerns, but he's worth more as a SPer than a middle inning guy to any team, including the Mets. If he becomes a dominant closer, like Familia, then yes, i guess he won't be a starter anymore, but there's nothing wrong with being a dominant closer, either.

[Edgy MD]

Those cases typically involved an organization change and/or a return to the minors.

Anywutz, I'm betting Wheeler starts the season in St. Lucie on a rehab assignment.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: Those cases typically involved an organization change and/or a return to the minors. Anywutz, I'm betting Wheeler starts the season in St. Lucie on a rehab assignment.

yeah, i think so too. Lugo will get first shot at sitting in the pen, waiting for Matz to break or for Gsellman to flop.

[ashie62]

Wheeler has much to prove before becoming too concerned about starting or relieving. Be healthy young man.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I'm talking more about him being abstractly right, or generally right.

With regard to his own situation, get healthy and pitch. How it works out from there is a few bridges down the road.