NL CY Race

[Frayed Knot]

It's far too early to start dissecting this year's CY Award ... but it's an off-day so I'm going to do it anyway.

PITCHER	TEAM	STARTS	--IP--	- W/L -	--ERA--	-WHIP-	-K/9-	-BB/9-
GERRITT COLE	PIRATES	20	132	14 - 6	2.24	1.08	8.8	1.9
JACOB deGROM	METS	19	127	10 - 6	2.05	0.88	9.0	1.6
MAX SCHERZER	NATIONALS	20	143	10 - 8	2.33	0.83	10.4	1.0
ZACH GREINKE	DODGERS	20	138	9 - 2	1.37	0.83	7.8	1.6
CLAYTON KERSHAW	DODGERS	20	140	8 - 6	2.51	0.94	11.9	1.7
MADISON BUMGARNER	GIANTS	20	131	11 - 5	3.16	1.10	9.0	1.8
SHELBY MILLER	BRAVES	20	127	5 - 7	2.27	1.13	7.6	2.9
CARLOS MARTINEZ	CARDINALS	18	119	11 - 4	2.34	1.23	9.1	3.6
JOHNNY CUETO	REDS	19	131	7 - 6	2.62	0.93	8.3	2.0

Probably have to give the edge right now to Greinke with that absurd ERA (which got a touch higher yesterday - heh, heh, heh) and the just-ended streak. And shirley Gerritt Cole will get support by having the best record (plus some pretty durn good peripherals himself). But our boy should be right in the mix along with those two plus Scherzer & Martinez.
Kershaw and Bumgarner have the biggest names though are slightly off their top forms this season while Shelby Miller is going to have to overcome a losing record and Cueto just got shipped to the AL which takes him out of the running.

[Edgy MD]

FanGraphs sees a two-man race at this point, and Greinke, amazingly, isn't among the two, measuring by their WAR numbers. Cole is right out.

[list:2se7qcsq]1) Max Scherzer, Nationals: 4.8
2) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 4.7
T3) Zack Greinke, Dodgers: 3.7
T3) Jake Arrieta, Cubs: 3.7
5) Jacob deGrom, Mets: 3.6
6) Gerrit Cole, Pirates: 3.1
T7) Johnny Cueto, Reds: 2.9 and done
T7) Lance Lynn, Cardinals: 2.9
T9) Jon Lester, Cubs: 2.8
T9) Tyson Ross, Padres: 2.8[/list:u:2se7qcsq]

I guess they see his lower strikeout numbers (20th in the league, compared to Kershaw and Scherzer being #1 and #2) as damaging to his case.

Still, that ERA.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

I'm surprised there aren't more Mets on this list, but I don't really pay attention to the rest of the league.

[Edgy MD]

Pitcher WAR
deGrom 3.6
Syndergaard 1.9
Harvey 1.8
Colon 1.7
Niese 0.5
Montero 0.3
Gee 0.2
Matz 0.1

[Frayed Knot]

Mets � Willets Point wrote: I'm surprised there aren't more Mets on this list, but I don't really pay attention to the rest of the league.

Well the original list was just one I made up so others can certainly be added or subtracted. That crew I came up with just seemed like the most likely candidates at this point in the season (while acknowledging that more than 1/3 of the season remains) and I think it's clear that deGrom has been the best hurler to date from our side.
And with CY ballots allowing just five names (used to be only 3) usually only a half-dozen guys get meaningful votes anyway as most of the ballots list pretty much the same names in varying orders.

[Frayed Knot]

Probably still Greinke in the lead, but the gap may be shrinking.

PITCHER	TEAM	STARTS	--IP--	- W/L -	--ERA--	-WHIP-	-K/9-	-BB/9-
GERRITT COLE	PIRATES	24	155	14 - 7	2.61	1.14	8.9	2.0
JACOB deGROM	METS	23	154	12 - 6	1.98	0.89	9.2	1.7
MAX SCHERZER	NATIONALS	24	165	11 - 9	2.73	0.90	10.6	1.3
ZACH GREINKE	DODGERS	24	165	13 - 2	1.58	0.87	8.1	2.2
CLAYTON KERSHAW	DODGERS	24	169	10 - 6	2.34	0.92	11.3	1.7
MADISON BUMGARNER	GIANTS	24	163	14 - 6	2.98	1.04	9.6	1.5
SHELBY MILLER	BRAVES	24	152	5 - 9	2.43	1.21	7.6	3.1
CARLOS MARTINEZ	CARDINALS	22	142	12 - 5	2.59	1.28	9.1	3.2
JAKE ARRIETA	CUBS	24	162	14 - 6	2.39	0.99	9.1	2.3

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Probably still Greinke in the lead, but the gap may be shrinking. PITCHER TEAM STARTS --IP-- - W/L - --ERA-- -WHIP- -K/9- -BB/9- GERRITT COLE PIRATES 24 155 14 - 7 2.61 1.14 8.9 2.0 JACOB deGROM METS 23 154 12 - 6 1.98 0.89 9.2 1.7 MAX SCHERZER NATIONALS 24 165 11 - 9 2.73 0.90 10.6 1.3 ZACH GREINKE DODGERS 24 165 13 - 2 1.58 0.87 8.1 2.2 CLAYTON KERSHAW DODGERS 24 169 10 - 6 2.34 0.92 11.3 1.7 MADISON BUMGARNER GIANTS 24 163 14 - 6 2.98 1.04 9.6 1.5 SHELBY MILLER BRAVES 24 152 5 - 9 2.43 1.21 7.6 3.1 CARLOS MARTINEZ CARDINALS 22 142 12 - 5 2.59 1.28 9.1 3.2 JAKE ARRIETA CUBS 24 162 14 - 6 2.39 0.99 9.1 2.3

The gap between Greinke and everybody else is shrinking. I'd say that the gap will continue to shrink, but I'm just guessing. Greinke's season, to date, is spectacular --- but hardly unprecedented. And Greinke has a track record. Is your list ordered the way it is for any specific reason, or is the order just sort of random?

Today, I'd vote Greinke, deGrom, then Kershaw.

Edited August 19, 2015 by Guest

[Frayed Knot]

Random

[Edgy MD]

Even if the gap in the peripherals shrink, Greinke has an appealing won-loss record. That gap will have to shrink as well, and there's only so much control a man has over that.

On the other hand, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year race with a terrifically strong finish last year.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Even if the gap in the peripherals shrink, Greinke has an appealing won-loss record. That gap will have to shrink as well, and there's only so much control a man has over that. On the other hand, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year race with a terrifically strong finish last year.

And Greinke already has a CYA with a not so traditionally CY-ish W-L record.

On the subject of deGrom, he's by far, my favorite Met. And ever since deGrom's gotten his feet wet last year, he's been about as good as anybody in the game. He might've been baseball's best pitcher over the last month and a half, two months of last season, as good, if not better than even Mr. Kershaw.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Even if the gap in the peripherals shrink, Greinke has an appealing won-loss record. That gap will have to shrink as well, and there's only so much control a man has over that. On the other hand, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year race with a terrifically strong finish last year. And Greinke already has a CYA with a not so traditionally CY-ish W-L record. On the subject of deGrom, he's by far, my favorite Met. And ever since deGrom's gotten his feet wet last year, he's been about as good as anybody in the game. He might've been baseball's best pitcher over the last month and a half, two months of last season, as good, if not better than even Mr. Kershaw.

Indeed.

[Ceetar]

It's mostly cherry picking, they're all so close. Scherzer is right there too. So is Arrieta. And if the Mets manage deGrom's innings I think that hurts him. Being awesome for 20 more IP counts for something.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

In a race this close the thing that might matter is the team's performance. I know its not supposed to count but you figure in a close call if Greinke's Dodgers or deGrom's Mets go all the way -- or a maybe-likely matchup between them goes one way or the other in the playoffs, then that could carry the vote.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: In a race this close the thing that might matter is the team's performance. I know its not supposed to count but you figure in a close call if Greinke's Dodgers or deGrom's Mets go all the way -- or a maybe-likely matchup between them goes one way or the other in the playoffs, then that could carry the vote.

The votes go in before the playoffs don't they?

This might eliminate Scherzer but most of the other guys are gonna make it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes, votes are cast before the playoffs begin.

[Vic Sage]

Top 10 ranked by pitcher's WAR/ NL:

Grienke = 6.97
deGrom = 5.19
Kershaw = 5.01
Scherzer = 4.71
Arrieta = 4.6
Miller = 4.25
Harvey = 4.04
Wacha = 3.29
Cole = 3.2
Lackey = 3.2 [on edit]
Bumgarner = 2.99
C.Martinez =2.91

Edited August 19, 2015 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

I got no room in the discussion for Scherzer.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I got no room in the discussion for Scherzer.

It doesn't really _mean_ anything, but the no hitter is going to play in his favor too.

[Vic Sage]

Regardless, it feels nice to have 2 SPers in the top 7, and another as a serious (if unlikely) ROY candidate.

[batmagadanleadoff]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2015-pitching-leaders.shtml

[Vic Sage]

oops. i missed Lackey (3.2).
Sorry John.

[Frayed Knot]

Bumgarner is starting to make a late season push.

Speaking of which, anybody check out his last two games, the one on Sunday and then last night's as well?
Sunday: CG, 3 H shutout w/1 BB & 14 Ks vs the Nats. Oh yeah and he also HR'd (his 4th of the season!!), 2B'd, scored twice and knocked in 2
Tuesday: Obviously not his night to pitch, so Bochy goes to him as his first guy off the bench to PH in the 7th inning with the Giants leading 1-0. One out/bases empty, he raps a single to LF and later comes around with the 2nd run of the game that the Giants went on to win 2-0 in StL.

Bochy: "Yeah Cards, you may have the best record in MLB and the self-proclaimed best fans. But just because it's a tight game in your house doesn't mean I have to use real hitters against your guy who's got a 3-hitter going. Nope, I'll save them for later after we add to our lead here just to remind you who the REIGNING CHAMPS are."

[Frayed Knot]

This has turned into a 2-man race between Greinke & Arrieta with our boy falling off the back-end somewhere although he could see some 4th or 5th place votes on a couple of ballots.

PITCHER	TEAM	STARTS	--IP--	- W/L -	--ERA--	-WHIP-	-K/9-	-BB/9-
GERRITT COLE	PIRATES	31	201	18 - 8	2.60	1.10	9.0	2.0
JACOB deGROM	METS	29	187	14 - 8	2.60	0.99	9.5	1.7
MAX SCHERZER	NATIONALS	32	220	13-12	2.91	0.96	10.6	1.4
ZACH GREINKE	DODGERS	31	215	18 - 3	1.68	0.85	8.0	1.6
CLAYTON KERSHAW	DODGERS	32	229	16 - 7	2.16	0.89	11.6	1.7
MADISON BUMGARNER	GIANTS	32	218	18 - 9	2.93	1.01	9.6	1.6
CARLOS MARTINEZ	CARDINALS	29	180	14 - 7	3.01	1.29	9.2	3.2
JAKE ARRIETA	CUBS	32	223	21 - 6	1.82	0.88	9.2	1.9

[dinosaur jesus]

Gotta be Arrieta. Wins still trump ERA if the ERA is close. Greinke has that great winning percentage going for him, but Arrieta's is pretty damn good. Plus getting the Cubs to the postseason is the kind of good story that voters like.