Lucas Duda: Prospect

[Frayed Knot]

John Sickels takes a look back on the development of, and expectations for, Duda as he made his way through the minors.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/5/4/8497883/lucas-duda-is-good-did-anyone-see-it-coming-new-york-mets

[Ceetar]

That really wasn't that interesting. His grades were mostly 'meh, but with potential' until he figured out how to maximize the power stroke the scouting reports demanded based on his physical appearance.

Which he did, and ta-da!

[Edgy MD]

As you know, Duda was used in the platoon role for the Mets in 2011, 2012, and 2013, showing substantial power but considerable fluctuation in his batting averages and OBP.

I don't think this is quite accurate. It was tru-ish enough in 2010, but not so much thereafter.

Year	PA vs. LH	PA vs. RH	Ratio
2011	68	279	20%/80%
2012	148	311	32%/68%
2013	110	274	29%/71%

And those OBP fluctuations are a little deceptive, as his walk rate remained pretty consistently high.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: That really wasn't that interesting. His grades were mostly 'meh, but with potential' until he figured out how to maximize the power stroke the scouting reports demanded based on his physical appearance. Which he did, and ta-da!

But, to me, that's precisely why it is interesting.
Most star players -- and while it's a stretch to call Lucas a 'star', a 30 HR year followed up by his current early season numbers mean we could be looking at the birth of one -- tend to come from those who were high draft picks and then highly touted as prospects. But here we have a modest draft round (7th) and a bunch of C/C+ grades all through the minors (remember, this is only one man's opinion) for a player who didn't even have a full time job until age 28. Those are the types where it can be fun to go back and look at what was being said about him all along.
There's not nearly as much to be learned from analyzing the reports on kids who were superstars in HS, great in college, and then were top-10 overall picks before speeding through the minors.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: That really wasn't that interesting. His grades were mostly 'meh, but with potential' until he figured out how to maximize the power stroke the scouting reports demanded based on his physical appearance. Which he did, and ta-da! But, to me, that's precisely why it is interesting. Most star players -- and while it's a stretch to call Lucas a 'star', a 30 HR year followed up by his current early season numbers mean we could be looking at the birth of one -- tend to come from those who were high draft picks and then highly touted as prospects. But here we have a modest draft round (7th) and a bunch of C/C+ grades all through the minors (remember, this is only one man's opinion) for a player who didn't even have a full time job until age 28. Those are the types where it can be fun to go back and look at what was being said about him all along. There's not nearly as much to be learned from analyzing the reports on kids who were superstars in HS, great in college, and then were top-10 overall picks before speeding through the minors.

Right but "guy with good discipline and power potential" is probably written in dozens of reports every year. The talent was always there with Duda, and it was clear from the beginning. The interesting thing to me is from the scouting end. The Mets identified a player with potential, but also with a flaw in his swing that they felt they could correct. He drove the ball and had good plate disciplines skills. That's practically moneyball 101 isn't it? The interesting part to me is actually left out. Who, or what, was done in '10 to fully realize the power stroke?

Oh, and he wasn't really platooned as Edgy pointed out, and it's not like he was suddenly good in 2014 either. He's been pretty much good the entire time, though merely average in 2012 for whatever reason. Was that the year he broke his wrist in the offseason?

Duda's profile is a guy who could hit but didn't have a position, who really excelled once he found one. Not a late-bloomer like the post suggests.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: The talent was always there with Duda, and it was clear from the beginning.

Not really. I mean obviously there's some talent there or you don't get drafted.
But a 7th round college pick is nothing particularly special. I don't have the stats for the percentage of 7th rounders who even become an everyday player in the big leagues but I know it's a single digit percentage and I'd bet that that single digit is probably under 3.

What Sickels is asking here is if anyone saw this coming, throwing the question open to the flocks of prospect geeks who frequent his site. One of the things I like about his site is that he's good at looking back at players who make or break out in the majors to see how accurate (or not) his projections were (something you'll never see from the crew who spent the last two months making absolutist pronouncements on the NFL draft). In this case he's looking at a player who is clearly out-playing his draft rank & prospect reports.

[MFS62]

I couldn't find his adoption thread in the Adopt-A-Prospect Forum.
Was it archived?
Be interesting t see what we said about him.

Later

[Edgy MD]

I don't believe he was adopted at all.

[MFS62]

Wow!
Then his birth parents must be very proud.
Later

[Ceetar]

The talent was always there with Duda, and it was clear from the beginning. Not really. I mean obviously there's some talent there or you don't get drafted. But a 7th round college pick is nothing particularly special. I don't have the stats for the percentage of 7th rounders who even become an everyday player in the big leagues but I know it's a single digit percentage and I'd bet that that single digit is probably under 3. What Sickels is asking here is if anyone saw this coming, throwing the question open to the flocks of prospect geeks who frequent his site. One of the things I like about his site is that he's good at looking back at players who make or break out in the majors to see how accurate (or not) his projections were (something you'll never see from the crew who spent the last two months making absolutist pronouncements on the NFL draft). In this case he's looking at a player who is clearly out-playing his draft rank & prospect reports.

I think his notes suggest he clearly saw it coming. And given the nature of the draft, probably everyone beyond the first 50 or so that makes significant progress in the majors could be described as out-playing is draft rank. Particularly ones that garner MVP votes.

Duda is the only guy from the draft to make real contributions, but that seems to be the low-end.
2006: Doug Fister, Justin Turner, Mike Leake, Kristopher Negron, Michael McKenry
2005: Michael Brantley, Jon Niese, Will Venable
2003: 2003 Mike Aviles, Brian Bannister, Kyle Kendrick, Wesley Wright, Brendan Ryan

I had to go back to 1999 to find a year with single digit make the majors % and that was Coco Crisp with nearly 30 bWAR.

It's very clearly not unheard of to have a 7th round pick make a contribution, there are dozens of guys in the majors right now.Rules change of course, but it seems like 7th round might be right around the sweet spot of "Needs to make an adjustment, but if he does can be valuable".

[Frayed Knot]

I think you're treating Duda's road to not just a starter but a potential upper-level one as much more of a sure thing than it ever was.
Sickels gives out 'C' grades to average prospects and never went above 'C+' in any year. Those players are, in his mind, ones who may make the majors some day if things go well. That doesn't mean 'C' players can't be future regulars or even stars but that the odds are against it and many more C-level guys have a future as bench players or simply never make the majors at all.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: I think you're treating Duda's road to not just a starter but a potential upper-level one as much more of a sure thing than it ever was. Sickels gives out 'C' grades to average prospects and never went above 'C+' in any year. Those players are, in his mind, ones who may make the majors some day if things go well. That doesn't mean 'C' players can't be future regulars or even stars but that the odds are against it and many more C-level guys have a future as bench players or simply never make the majors at all.

talking more about the draft than his individual rankings along the way really. He got a poor grade because he hadn't realized the potential, every single one of his entries on Duda mentions the potential to be much better than that. There are practically no prospects without a flaw here and there, which is why no one projects them to have MVP seasons, or even 22nd in the voting. I wonder what the lowest pick's ever been been written up to maybe have a shot at an MVP. probably not below the first round right?

So outside of the specifics of the crap shoot and guess work it all is, I still say this is a boring write up. "Oh, I saw potential if he could leverage the power stroke because he always controlled the strike zone and just need to provide more value for a 1Bman of average defense".

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm giving this entire Frayed-Ceetar debate a grade of D and declaring it has no chance to make an impact among great CPF debates.

[Frayed Knot]

So am I and I'm part of it.