Shortstop 2015

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The National League has avoided the DH for over 40 years. What makes you think that will change in the next few years?

Because it's time. Pitchers don't take hitting seriously. They're ever looking for more ways to specialize them, much the way they don't have them hit in early Spring or early minor leagues, since they feel it's secondary (more like tertiary, at best) Interleague play is here anyway and the silliness of have two sets of teams play with different rules is that much more apparent.

Oh, and a new commish may have different thoughts on the matter. By rule, it could still happen if 2015 if he feels like it.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Ceetar wrote: Because it's time. Pitchers don't take hitting seriously.

Is there a full moon tonight?

[Ceetar]

d'Kong76 wrote: Ceetar wrote: Because it's time. Pitchers don't take hitting seriously. Is there a full moon tonight?

next full moon is January 5th. Got a Blue one in July.

[Guest d'Kong76]

My wife's birthday, good to know!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Lowrie signs with Astros. I don't think he was all that sexy but is kinda affordable.

Sherman I think argued the other day that it's time for the Mets to shock the world and trade for Tulowitzski, likening it to the Carter addition.

It could be similar.

[Frayed Knot]

I was just about to bring Lowrie up as Richard Justice had him going to the Mets on his prediction sheet.
The biggest stumbling block here may have been that he wanted, and got, three years (plus an option) which was longer than the Mets wanted to go, more so than the money which wasn't all that high in total ($23 + $5 for the 4th year).

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Twitter on fire again following reports that Mets have talked Tulo with the Rockies -- and that "no chance" for a deal has become "a 5% chance."

[batmagadanleadoff]

Can somebody explain to me, the difference between 0 and 5%? Not in real math and stuff, but in MetSpeak.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Can somebody explain to me, the difference between 0 and 5%? Not in real math and stuff, but in MetSpeak.

well, not MetSpeak. ReporterSpeak? Who said the 5%?

[Guest d'Kong76]

Show us the MATH!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Can somebody explain to me, the difference between 0 and 5%? Not in real math and stuff, but in MetSpeak.

I dunno. Keith Hernandez prior to the night of June 15 was 0%. Mike Piazza once he was flipped to the Marlins was, like, 20%. I think that's what that means.

I should say though. If I'm the Rockies I'm looking at the Padres and Dodgers loading up, the Giants as defending WS champs, and Tulowitzski's lousy recent health record and future obligations, I'm a motivated seller. Very much like the Padres got Kemp, the Mets oughta be able to get this guy if they want him badly enough.

[Theoldmole]

Didn't the Padres kill the Kemp deal? My thought, deGrom makes Syndergaard expendable, Tulo when healthy a game changer.

[Frayed Knot]

TheOldMole wrote: Didn't the Padres kill the Kemp deal?

No. They questioned it after seeing the results of his physical (arthritis in both hips) but finally made it official last night.

[Frayed Knot]

Not sure where the "5%" started, though at least some of this story began with Heyman.

The Mets and Rockies have been quietly discussing a potential Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster for weeks, though it isn't known yet whether New York will have a decent chance to complete such a deal. Prized Mets pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard is said to be the centerpiece of discussions revolving around a potential package of young players in a possible deal for Tulo, though it seems like there is still quite a ways to go to have a chance to complete such a monster trade. New York and Colorado have been stealthily talking names for weeks, and while there's said to be some progress, it still feels like they are almost in the early stages with several hurdles to go ...

He goes on to add that GM Jeff Bridich has consistently said he is listening on both Tulowitzki & Carlos Gonzalez, though it is known that [co-owner] Dick Monfort has rebuffed earlier talks w/other teams involving Tulowitzki. Tulo does NOT have a no-trade clause although he's close to the Montfort brother owners to the point where it's possible he could kill a deal he doesn't like by appealing to them.
One person characterized the chances for a deal as still �slim� while allowing that discussions are still ongoing.

[Edgy MD]

Trying to adapt to the Flores-at-shortstop outlook, which would be a more enjoyable experiment if so many weren't almost rooting for it to fail.

I get this encouraging picture of his bat, which references this spirited if realistic defense of his glove.

I want to get on board, I do. But I also fear that the toxic mix of growing pains, animated gifs perpetuating him at his worst moments, and a fan base that may largely see his presence as a symbol of organizational failure may lead to a downward spiral of confidence and performance.

I also see Terry, as a sort of confidence booster, refusing to replace him for late-inning, save-situation defense (he didn't last year --- not regularly, anyhow), and that maybe backfiring in the presence of one high-profile game-turning error.

Interesting to see the "heavy feet" tag used around here (coined by Zvon? MGiM?) is one the scouts have used also.

[Ceetar]

Honestly my biggest concern is that he won't hit. big prospect/scout guys seem to almost take this for granted.

If he's seriously got a bat and is going to hit above average (not just for a SS) I'm confident enough that he'll provide more value than he takes away (but yes, please put Tejada/backup in in the 8th) but I'm not thrilled with the prospect of betting on that right now.

[Edgy MD]

I'm trying to remember who it was that said he just worried about finding hitters. That he could shake a tree and 10 glove guys would fall out.

But, if he stumbles as a fielder, and press and fans are getting on the team over his stumbles, that certainly can affect his hitting as well. It can also affect his speech, his driving, and his lovemaking. Confidence is confidence.

So, as with Daniel Murphy in a prior age, it's at least somewhat important that he acquits himself respectably as a fielder.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm trying to remember who it was that said he just worried about finding hitters. That he could shake a tree and 10 glove guys would fall out. But, if he stumbles as a fielder, and press and fans are getting on the team over his stumbles, that certainly can affect his hitting as well. It can also affect his speech, his driving, and his lovemaking. Confidence is confidence. So, as with Daniel Murphy in a prior age, it's at least somewhat important that he acquits himself respectably as a fielder.

A lot of it's timing I think. People don't notice the "didn't get to it" errors as much. and if he doesn't make a game-altering one that's directly attributed to the loss, he might have time to find his stroke with the bat.

And of course, if the Mets are 28-10 no one's gonna talk about his fielding much.

[Zvon]

Like Ceets, I think if we go with Flores it's Mr. T for late D. Not that T has a great glove but he's better than Flores. Flores will be what he is. He won't suck. I consider the combination "serviceable".

Yea, I did read the heavy feet stuff. I'm gonna have to change it to lead feets.

[Frayed Knot]

Hope for Flores

Only if the other team is willing to eat a bunch of Hope's contract, otherwise no way.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Megdal on Tulo and the Mets. Guess how many paragraphs you have to read before encountering the word "Madoff"?

_________________________________

Can the Mets afford to miss Troy Tulowitzki?

By Howard Megdal 12:25 p.m. | Dec. 23, 2014

The idea of the Mets acquiring Troy Tulowitzki is all-consuming these days�to fans, to writers, to many in the front office as well. And judging from a conversation I had with a Mets official, the front office believes the team has the players to get a deal for Tulowitzki done. But the team's ability to go out and get the four-time All-Star Rockies shortstop will depend on the finances of its owners. Judging by the owners' recent track record, this is not a good thing. The Mets have spent the past half-dozen years in the baseball wilderness, as Fred Wilpon and his associates have treated the team less like a big-market contender than an asset required to finance their enormous debt load. They have had no playoff appearances or even so much as a winning record to show for their on-field efforts since the moment in December 2008 when their off-field financier, Bernie Madoff, was revealed to be a fraud. Under general manager Sandy Alderson, the team's farm system has gotten much stronger, from bottom-five to top-five, by most credible estimates. A roster with young talent won 79 games last season, and while the team's starting pitching is its strength, the lineup is also filled with competent performers at nearly every position. The one exception is shortstop. There's something poetic in this. The Mets could be entering next season with precisely the team they have now, plus the best shortstop in franchise history, Jose Reyes, at short, if the team's owners hadn't been so strapped for cash that they took out an emergency loan to pay operating expenses back in the 2011 offseason, while Jose Reyes signed with the Miami Marlins. In subsequent seasons, the payroll dropped further, but as those young players Alderson acquired in trades and drafted began to reach the major leagues, the effect of the money issue was mitigated. The Mets have some real talent heading into next season. Add a healthy Matt Harvey and newly acquired Michael Cuddyer to a 79-win team, and they're a competent shortstop away from looking like a legitimate playoff contender. Which brings us to that one spot, and how the Mets can fill it. Troy Tulowitzki clearly represents a best-case scenario for the team. The Mets have a gaping hole at shortstop, with real questions about whether Wilmer Flores can play the position defensively. Tulowitzki is the finest shortstop of his generation. Over the past six seasons, he's posted a 137 OPS+. Only Hanley Ramirez, no longer really a shortstop, is close, at 130. Jose Reyes is third... at 113. Generally speaking, the best player at a given position, let alone one where talent is as scarce as shortstop, simply isn't available in trade or free agency. Teams keep those players. But Tulowitzki happens to play for a team in Colorado that's been utterly directionless. And the Mets, by virtue of hoarding their young, cost-controlled talent, could provide plenty of it to the Rockies to jump-start their rebuild. The problem is money, and the owners' need to devote so much of it financing the interest on massive debt against their team and regional TV network, along with twice-annual debt balloon payments on Citi Field. To put it in perspective: the city confirmed receiving $21.9 million from Queens Ballpark Company LLC, a subsidiary of Mets parent company Sterling Equities, on December 15, a payment made twice a year. Troy Tulowitzki will make $20 million, total, in 2015. So for baseball ops to recommend acquiring Tulowitzki, it means evaluating risk beyond just whether the oft-injured Tulowitzki can stay healthy enough to earn the $118 million left on his contract over the next six seasons. As it stands now, the team payroll is just under $100 million. This would be the highest it's been in several years, and accordingly, the team is looking to trim it further through a salary dump of a good starting pitcher, such as Dillon Gee. With a payroll akin to, say, the Washington Nationals, who spent just under $135 million in 2014 on player salaries, the Mets could not only afford Tulowitzki, but also add depth to this year's team behind injury-prone catcher Travis d'Arnaud or David Wright, returning from a shoulder injury that ruined his 2014 season. They could even add some pitching down the line to replenish the depth lost in a Tulowitzki trade. Alderson, though, isn't merely working with a smaller budget. He's working without a set budget at all, forced to get approval for each player acquisition individually. All of which is to say much of the potential risk in a Tulowitzki deal is self-inflicted by ownership. "I think it's fair to say most things change, including risk associated with various players' health and contract amounts if you can expand payroll that significantly," a Mets official said to me when I put forward the Nationals' example. Another way the payroll issue can mitigate the possible upside of a Tulowitzki deal is if the Mets are forced to offload some salary to take him on. For instance, Tulowitzki would be a massive upgrade from Flores. But much of that gain could be given back if the team needs to, say, trade Daniel Murphy for salary reasons in the process, and hope young Dilson Herrera can fill in for the team's lone 2014 All-Star. Then there is the risk inherent in Sandy Alderson losing the confidence of ownership. At the moment, cooperation is at an all-time high, with Alderson and Jeff Wilpon making the rounds together in meetings like sponsorship and even radio partner discussions. But it is worth remembering that Omar Minaya, Alderson's predecessor, didn't lose the confidence of ownership when he failed to do things like develop a steady stream of major league talent, or leverage a then-reasonable New York payroll sufficiently to allow the Mets to avoid starting pitchers like Brian Lawrence and Dave Williams down the stretch for teams that finished a game out of the playoffs. No, it happened once the Mets traded for Johan Santana, and in those salad days of early 2008, when the Bernie Madoff money was still flowing, signed him to a massive contract extension. Once Santana's injuries caught up with him, the relationship with Minaya soured to the point that the Mets made a change. If the Wilpons even have the capability to add Tulowitzki's salary�they'd need to do it as they simultaneously attempt to refinance a debt of greater than $600 million coming due in 2015 against S.N.Y.�it's easy to imagine them ignoring all the work Alderson's done should a deal for Tulowitzki turn out to cost them money in exchange for an injured player. Baseball ops has yet to pose the question to ownership. So there will likely be plenty of talk about risk in the coming weeks as it relates to Tulowitzki, a player who would lift the Mets from intriguing young team to preseason playoff contender. But there's also the risk, without Tulowitzki, that the Mets' austerity period will prove to have left them too far behind wealthier and better-run teams to contend for anything, and that their long, painstaking rebuild will have been for nothing.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/media/2014/12/8559136/can-mets-afford-miss-troy-tulowitzki

[Ceetar]

I found it (finance is a code word for Madoff) in the third paragraph and stopped there.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Megdearth wrote: Tulowitzki, a player who would lift the Mets from intriguing young team to preseason playoff contender.

Unless, of course, his hip falls off and then he'll be a six
year albatross around their necks.

[batmagadanleadoff]

The same could be said about David Wright.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Or Clayton Kershaw.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Or Giancarlo Stanton.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Yup�, I suppose.

[Edgy MD]

The problem there is that he uses "would" when the more honest term is "could" or "might."

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: The problem there is that he uses "would" when the more honest term is "could" or "might."

You don't think the Mets would qualify as a contender with Tulowitzki? Yet you predicted the Mets would win about 100 games in last year's prediction thread.

[Edgy MD]

I think they qualify as a contender now. But the future is unknown.