AL Playoff Matchup

[Guest d'Kong76]

Baltimore at Detroit
When: 3:30 PM ET, Sunday, October 5, 2014
Where: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
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The Detroit Tigers traded for David Price at the deadline so that the former Cy Young Award winner could pitch meaningful games for the team in the postseason. It won�t get any more meaningful than Sunday, when the Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles in Game 3 of the American League Division Series needing a win to stay alive. Detroit is hoping for some length from the left-hander so it can avoid using a bullpen that has been a disaster in the first two games.

The Tigers have allowed a total of 12 runs in the eighth inning in the series, with setup men Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria combining to surrender nine while recording only four outs. The bullpen breakdowns have obscured great efforts from Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez, who have combined for seven RBIs to pace Detroit's offense. The Orioles are getting more balanced production from their offense, and pinch-hitter Delmon Young delivered a go-ahead, three-run double in Friday�s 7-6 victory to give the AL East champions a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five series.

TV:
3:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP:
Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23 ERA) vs. Tigers LH David Price (15-12, 3.26)

Gonzalez allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last eight starts to lock up a spot in the postseason rotation, breezing through five scoreless frames in his final regular-season turn. The 30-year-old Mexican did not yield a run in three of his last five starts but completed seven innings in only one of those turns. Gonzalez faced Detroit twice early in the regular season and was ripped for a total of nine runs � eight earned � and 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Price pitched Detroit to the AL Central title by striking out eight over 7 1/3 scoreless innings against Minnesota on Sunday. The Vanderbilt product was up-and-down over the last five weeks of the season, allowing five or more runs in three of his final seven outings. Price is 1-4 with a 5.06 ERA in his postseason career and was lit up for seven runs in as many innings in the ALDS as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays last season.

WALK-OFFS:
1. The Orioles have not won a postseason series since beating the Seattle Mariners in the 1997 ALDS.
2. Tigers CF Rajai Davis (abdomen) left Game 2 in the fourth inning and is day-to-day.
3. Baltimore DH Nelson Cruz is 4-for-8 in the series and batting .400 in eight career postseason games against Detroit.
*****************************
LA Angels at Kansas City
When: 7:30 PM ET, Sunday, October 5, 2014
Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
SportsDirect Inc.

The Kansas City Royals look to complete a stunning sweep when they host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of their best-of-five American League Division Series on Sunday. Kansas City won both of the first two games in extra innings on the road to shock Los Angeles, which had the AL�s best record in the regular season. �It�s not the position we want to be in,� Angels manager Mike Scioscia told reporters. �Nobody has their head buried in the sand, we need a three-game winning streak.�

Mike Moustakas hit the game-winning homer in the opener and Eric Hosmer smacked the decisive blast in Game 2 as the Royals appeared to play looser than Los Angeles, the heavy favorites. �It�s fun to be the underdog,� Hosmer told reporters. �It�s fun to realize and go out there and play and you don�t have anything to lose and just let it all on the line.� Angels star Mike Trout has been one of his club�s underachievers, going hitless in eight at-bats in the series.

TV:
7:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP:
Angels LH C.J. Wilson (13-10, 4.51 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (14-8, 3.30)

Wilson has struggled mightily on the road, going 4-8 with a 5.31 ERA in 16 starts. He was 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two outings against Kansas City this season, and Scioscia is counting on a big performance. �C.J. dissects his ability and what he is trying to do on the mound more than anybody I�ve been around,� Scioscia said. �He has to find the balance between finding that edge and keeping his stuff where it needs to be.�

Shields somehow has the nickname �Big Game James� despite his postseason ERA rising to 5.26 in seven career starts (2-4 record) after allowing four runs and five hits in five-plus innings against Oakland in Tuesday�s AL wild-card game. He is 6-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 career starts against the Angels, and closer Greg Holland said he is the key to Kansas City's starting rotation. �He leads by example, taking the ball every five days and giving his heart and soul,� Holland said in a press conference. �I think once you start rattling off good start after good start, it kind of builds on itself.�

WALK-OFFS:
1. Kansas City is the first team in major-league history to play three consecutive extra-inning contests to begin a postseason - and win them.
2. Royals 2B Omar Infante, who is hitless in eight at-bats in the series, is 7-for-15 with two doubles against Wilson.
3. Angels LF Josh Hamilton, who is 0-for-9 in the series, is just 3-for-25 with 11 strikeouts versus Shields.

[batmagadanleadoff]

The Kansas City Royals look to complete a stunning sweep when they host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of their best-of-five American League Division Series

Stunning? It's three baseball games between good teams. It's practically a coin-flip.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Stunning may be a little strong, but it's hardly a coin flip
based on the odds below. And they won the first two in
Thunderstick LAnd to boot, which was highly unlikely.

Original odds to win the 2014 AL pennant
Los Angeles Angels 2-1
Kansas City Royals 7-1

Original odds to win the 2014 World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1
Kansas City Royals 16-1

[batmagadanleadoff]

d'Kong76 wrote: Stunning may be a little strong, but it's hardly a coin flip based on the odds below. And they won the first two in Thunderstick LAnd to boot, which was highly unlikely. Original odds to win the 2014 AL pennant Los Angeles Angels 2-1 Kansas City Royals 7-1 Original odds to win the 2014 World Series Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 Kansas City Royals 16-1

If, by "original", those are pre-season odds, then they're meaningless now. And if those odds were set after season's end, I'd take those odds and bet the Wild Cards every single season. Wild cards have won five of the 19 wild-card era World Series, and lost five of them -- a showing extremely consistent with the idea that playoff baseball is a coin-flip.

[Guest d'Kong76]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If, by "original", those are pre-season odds, then they're meaningless now.

Before the playoffs started odds.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: And if those odds were set after season's end, I'd take those odds and bet the Wild Cards every single season.Wild cards have won five of the 19 wild-card era World Series, and lost five of them -- a showing extremely consistent with the idea that playoff baseball is a coin-flip.

Yeah, lotta coin flipping in these crazy four series. I'm
not going to discuss it further with someone who probably
isn't even watching the games because he thinks he knows
the outcomes before a pitch is thrown.

[batmagadanleadoff]

d'Kong76 wrote: If, by "original", those are pre-season odds, then they're meaningless now. Before the playoffs started odds. And if those odds were set after season's end, I'd take those odds and bet the Wild Cards every single season.Wild cards have won five of the 19 wild-card era World Series, and lost five of them -- a showing extremely consistent with the idea that playoff baseball is a coin-flip. Yeah, lotta coin flipping in these crazy four series. I'm not going to discuss it further with someone who probably isn't even watching the games because he thinks he knows the outcomes before a pitch is thrown.

You're the one who seems to know the outcome before a pitch is thrown, not me. I think that's my point: that I have no idea who's going to win -- because I think that every team, more or less, has the same chance to win.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Circuitous mumbo-jumbo.

[batmagadanleadoff]

d'Kong76 wrote: Circuitous mumbo-jumbo.

What does that mean?

[Frayed Knot]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: The Kansas City Royals look to complete a stunning sweep when they host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of their best-of-five American League Division Series Stunning? It's three baseball games between good teams. It's practically a coin-flip.

Even if one were to agree that each game between a best-in-MLB 98-win team and an 89-win WC team who had to survive an extra-inning playoff game just to get there were essentially 50/50 propositions (coin flips), that the one would sweep the other hardly is.

Looked at one way the odds of a KC sweep (or KC being swept) would be .5 x .5 x .5 = 12.5%, aka 1 chance in 8.
Another way to arrive at the same answer is to realize that there are 32 possible outcomes of a five game series [5 events with 2 possible outcomes = 2^5] In only 4 of those 32 does one of the teams not win a game from among the first 3 -- ex. Team A wins all 5, wins all except game 5, all but game 4, or all but 4 & 5. Now obviously in this set-up you stop playing after the first three all go one way, but those exceptions are still possibilities that exist.

Now give the 98-win LAA a slightly better than even shot in a given game -- let's say 55% to reflect their better record + home field edge? -- and the Royals' odds of a sweep drop to more like 9% or 1-in-11

Hardly a 'coin flip'

Edited October 5, 2014 by Guest

[batmagadanleadoff]

Agreed. I wouldn't think that it's even money whether or not the Royals sweep. Or whether or not the Angels sweep. But the Royals winning the series? I'd say it's a lot closer to even money than the odds reflect.

[Frayed Knot]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Agreed. I wouldn't think that it's even money whether or not the Royals sweep.

Then you probably shouldn't have gone out of your way to quote and object to the specific sentence with the adjective 'stunning' in it only to totally ignore the noun, sweep, that it was attached to.
In doing so you were arguing against a point that wasn't being made.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Agreed. I wouldn't think that it's even money whether or not the Royals sweep. Then you probably shouldn't have gone out of your way to quote and object to the specific sentence with the adjective 'stunning' in it only to totally ignore the noun, sweep, that it was attached to. In doing so you were arguing against a point that wasn't being made.

Depends on your point of view. All the Royals have to do to sweep is win the next game, which if you ask me, is, more or less, a 50-50 proposition. That the Royals won the first two games, doesn't, in and of itself, make it less likelier that they'll win the next game. But, yes, I agree that going into the series, a sweep was unlikely, not just by the Royals, but by any team, in any series.

[Guest d'Kong76]

d'Kong76 wrote: Circuitous mumbo-jumbo.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: What does that mean?

batmagadanleadoff wrote: You're the one who seems to know the outcome before a pitch is thrown, not me.

Nonsensical, I seem nothing of the sort.

[Zvon]

If the Royals sweep the Angels I will consider the achievement to be pretty stunning.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Me too.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Stunning! haha

[Zvon]

Balt/Det:
0-0 mid second.
I'm really trying to get into these games. But aside from The Royal Surge, all else pales.

[Zvon]

TBS has gone out on me. Anyone else lose the game?

[Zvon]

Nevermind..
It's back. Cripes, that was out for over 10 minutes.

0-0 in the 3rd. I'm fortunate that baseball can make time stand still.

[Zvon]

Things are getting interesting. Wacky play at 2nd on a pickoff. Never saw a pick-off like that before. The Tiger guy was seriously blocked off the bag, which I think is legal.

Challenged and stands.

2nd & 3rd, 2 out, Tigers trying to get on the board...

[Zvon]

Ha! Tigers suck.

0-0 Baltimore

[Zvon]

Tigers are trying not to suck in the 9th.

They score one.
2-1 OrangeBirds

[Zvon]

Nope. Tigers suck. Birds fly.

[MFS62]

Before the post game interviews start, I'm gonna' bet a whole bunch of CPF-bucks that none of the Tigers will say, "If we had Derek Jeter, we would have won".
But all bets are off as to whether or not one of the reporters will ask it.
Later

[Zvon]

Trout is out and about.

1-0 Laa's

[Zvon]

Damn kid...I'd have jumped right in that fountain for a Trout POSTSEASON homer.

[Zvon]

Wow. These Royals are for real!
They answer right back in the 1st. Knocks the Laa's pitcher right off the mound already. Holy schmoly!

3-1 KC in the 1st.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Zvon wrote: Wow. These Royals are for real! They answer right back in the 1st. Knocks the Laa's pitcher right off the mound already. Holy schmoly! 3-1 KC in the 1st.

These Royals are freakin' stunning.

[Guest d'Kong76]

My coin flip has Angels, but what do I know?

[Zvon]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Zvon wrote: Wow. These Royals are for real! They answer right back in the 1st. Knocks the Laa's pitcher right off the mound already. Holy schmoly! 3-1 KC in the 1st. These Royals are freakin' stunning.

If you were watching earlier, one of the talking heads on TV did use the word "stunning". I chuckled.