Tomorrow Never Knows --- Mets Prospect Lists in 2014

[Edgy MD]

Looks like? Looks half Filipino and kind of sad. Not depressed sad, but grave. Has that clinical "baseball-is-serious-shit" face that Edgardo brought. He wore Jerry Grote's number and a really stupid-looking inverted "P" on his back.

Memorable acts? Well, he triggered this encouraging report on pitch framing. His lone homer was a two-run job off of Rick Porcello, achieved on the wrong side of a blowout.

Really, it was a soggy September for Mets debuts: den Dekker, Centeno, Flores, Tovar, and d'Arnaud all flailed in futility to one extent or another. But try not to let that discourage you. Duda and Tejada didn't hit a lick as September debutantes, but look at them now!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I remember Tovar. I remember den Dekker, a little. Flores made an impression too, although not always a good one.

d'Arnaud? d'Arnope.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: MLB.com kicked off the overall prospect list season by revealing their Top-100 Syndergaard = 11 d'Arnaud = 22 Montero = 85

Baseball Prospectus chimes in:
Syndergaard = 11
d'Arnaud = 48
Flores = 71

[Edgy MD]

God bless BP --- not giving up on Wilmer and his little mini-curly mullett.

[MFS62]

Keith Law rates the minor league system #6:

6. New York Mets The turnaround in this system is remarkable, especially when you consider they have not had a top-10 pick since they took Matt Harvey in 2010, and it puts the Mets in excellent shape relative to the other four teams in their division. The decisions to trade R.A. Dickey and Marlon Byrd look even better in hindsight. The Mets also have one of the minors' best collections of pitchers who throw strikes but aren't strictly finesse guys.

Later

[Edgy MD]

MLB Prospect Watch leaves us out of the top ten in shortstops and outfielders too (only ten outfielders?), but we're not exactly dry at those positions, either, particularly the former.

[nymr83]

Mlb actually mentioned Smith as the #2 first base prospect in the minors, but that wasnt good enough to vrack the top 100.

Keith Law's top 100 is out today:
24 Syndergaard, with alot of praise
36 d'Arnaud, with the comment that he is top 10 if healthy
37 Smith, suprise, Keith is higher on Smith than most scouts ive read. Keith basically says he belongs in the sally league, not brooklyn this year.
60 Montero
92 Nimmo

Keith really loves the Mets

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, that seeming paradox on Smith is a thinker, but I think it's resolved by the notion that firstbasemen are the worst kind of offensive prospects, because they're the only ones who can't casually slide to another position if things don't work out. They're sort of starting already at the end of the line.

[Frayed Knot]

That's ridiculously high on Smith so soon. I would think you'd want to have some kind of pro track record before you started breaking top-50. I mean, he does, but <200 ABs at Rookie Lg level.
One report I read on Smith recently loves his bat but added that he isn't sold on the power and isn't sold on his body.

Bottom line: Long way to go.

[nymr83]

Keith posts his top 10 for each NL team today.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10372008/national-league-east-top-10-prospects-team-2014-mlb

we knew his top 5 from the top 100 (Syndegaard, d'Arnaud, Smith, Montero, Nimmo) and he rounds that out with Plawecki, Herrera, Flores, Puello, and Rosario.

He also mentions #11-15 in the body of article: Cecchini, Ynoa, deGrom, Fulmer, and Tapia.

He lists Rosario as the sleeper to really move up and the only disappoint from last year being Cecchini who didnt hit at Brooklyn.

[ashie62]

Cute and pasted per Rubin...

1. Noah Syndergaard, rhp
2. Travis d'Arnaud, c
3. Rafael Montero, rhp
4. Dominic Smith, 1b
5. Kevin Plawecki, c/1b
6. Wilmer Flores, 2b/3b
7. Amed Rosario, ss
8. Brandon Nimmo, of
9. Gavin Cecchini, ss
10. Jacob deGrom, rhp
11. Cesar Puello, of
12. Steven Matz, lhp
13. Dilson Herrera, 2b
14. Michael Fulmer, rhp
15. Gabriel Ynoa, rhp
16. Cory Mazzoni, rhp
17. Vic Black, rhp
18. Jeurys Familia, rhp
19. Domingo Tapia, rhp
20. Logan Verrett, rhp
21. Gonzalez Germen, rhp
22. Luis Mateo, rhp
23. Jack Leathersich, lhp
24. Matt Koch, rhp
25. Matt den Dekker, of
26. Dustin Lawley, of/3b
27. Rob Whalen, rhp
28. Juan Centeno, c
29. Wilfredo Tovar, ss
30. Jayce Boyd, 1b
31. Matt Reynolds, ss

[ashie62]

I can hear the media... "does Noah have a chance to go north as a Met on opening day"

[nymr83]

Ashie62 wrote: I can hear the media... "does Noah have a chance to go north as a Met on opening day"

I believe Alderaon jas already said Montero is closer to contributing right now( even tjough he has the lower ceiling)

[nymr83]

Ashie62 wrote: Cute and pasted per Rubin... 1. Noah Syndergaard, rhp 2. Travis d'Arnaud, c 3. Rafael Montero, rhp 4. Dominic Smith, 1b 5. Kevin Plawecki, c/1b 6. Wilmer Flores, 2b/3b 7. Amed Rosario, ss 8. Brandon Nimmo, of 9. Gavin Cecchini, ss 10. Jacob deGrom, rhp 11. Cesar Puello, of 12. Steven Matz, lhp 13. Dilson Herrera, 2b 14. Michael Fulmer, rhp 15. Gabriel Ynoa, rhp 16. Cory Mazzoni, rhp 17. Vic Black, rhp 18. Jeurys Familia, rhp 19. Domingo Tapia, rhp 20. Logan Verrett, rhp 21. Gonzalez Germen, rhp 22. Luis Mateo, rhp 23. Jack Leathersich, lhp 24. Matt Koch, rhp 25. Matt den Dekker, of 26. Dustin Lawley, of/3b 27. Rob Whalen, rhp 28. Juan Centeno, c 29. Wilfredo Tovar, ss 30. Jayce Boyd, 1b 31. Matt Reynolds, ss

This is Baseball America's list, by the way.

[ashie62]

Thank you..This Rosario SS guy is new to me...

[Edgy MD]

That's like the third Rosario-is-new comment. Come on! He's Amed Fucking Rosario! Know this man!

[nymr83]

BA calls him the "most athletic" player in the system (those labels arent necessarily anything to get excited about... the guy they call the fastest isnt even a legit prospect, but hey, he has track speed), but he's been hyped at least since last season and with Cecchini looking down last year he is probably looked at as the future at SS. But he's young enough and far enough away that the Mets certainly shouldnt be making any current MLB roster decisions because of him, this isnt Xander Bogaerts.

[Edgy MD]

Only 17-year-old in the Appy League last year. And there were only 14 18-year-olds.

One of those 18-year-oldies was also a Kingsporter --- 2012 draftee Chris Flexen, who went 8-1 / 2.09 in 11 starts.

Interesting to see if they end up in Coney or jump to Savannah this year. Smiff might also jump to a full-season league.

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball Prospectus chimes in:

1) RHP - Noah Syndergaard
2) C - Travis d�Arnaud
3) 3B - Wilmer Flores
4) RHP - Rafael Montero
5) SS - Amed Rosario
6) 1B - Dominic Smith
7) OF - Cesar Puello
8) C - Kevin Plawecki
9) CF - Brandon Nimmo
10) RHP - Marcos Molina


Pictures, descriptions, and accounts of this list beyond just the ordinal list itself are hidden behind BP's pay wall.


The name Marcos Molina was a new one on me.
Looking him up: 19 in early March; RHP; 6' 3", 188. Has pitched professionally for two seasons now: 2012 in the DSL and 2013 for the Gulf Port Mets.
Stats certainly don't jump up at you so there must be some scouting reports that BP got ahold of and decided they like. Plus it's probably a case of figuring that the guys beyond a point are pretty much interchangeable so why not take a flyer on the skinny teenager so you'll look smart as hell if and when he does make it.

[Edgy MD]

Cool, we got a team in Gulf Port.

If projecting prospects was my job, yeah, I'd totally use that 10th slot to pick somebody out of left field. Nobody remembers if you got it wrong, and if you get it right, you're a genius.

Looking for photos of Marcos Molina, I get this guy:

[fimg=200]http://www.estoesbaloncesto.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Marcos-Molina-y-Juanma-S%C3%A1nchez-021.jpg[/fimg] [fimg=200]https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTJlnY4R1Z2_w3hVldGIxE4dzMQijg-C2qzHu0xABs2hwmgVzwB[/fimg] [fimg=200]https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQoWlsQXvKUvUaF3xiwJcMVLzJq0jgQVsPZ4JFncfYXKqQ1uWtSGw[/fimg]

And this guy:

[fimg=200]http://content-portal.istoedinheiro.com.br/istoeimagens/imagens/mi_3406491963451229.jpg[/fimg] [fimg=200]http://www.terra.com.br/istoedinheiro-temp/edicoes/624/imagens/i143241.jpg[/fimg][fimg=200]http://revistadinheirorural.terra.com.br/media/images/raw/2009/09/01/img-145506-.jpg[/fimg]

Maybe it's this badass!

[Benjamin Grimm]

I added each player's age as of April 1, 2014 and the team they played for in 2013:

1) RHP - Noah Syndergaard (21, St. Lucie, Binghamton)
2) C - Travis d�Arnaud (25, Binghamton, Las Vegas, Mets)
3) 3B - Wilmer Flores (22, Las Vegas, Mets)
4) RHP - Rafael Montero (23, Binghamton, Las Vegas)
5) SS - Amed Rosario (18, Kingsport)
6) 1B - Dominic Smith (18, Gulf Coast, Kingsport)
7) OF - Cesar Puello (23, Binghamton)
8) C - Kevin Plawecki (23, Savannah, St. Lucie)
9) CF - Brandon Nimmo (21, Savannah)
10) RHP - Marcos Molina (19, Gulf Coast)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He's very high on Amed Rosario:

Rosario is a legit five-tool talent w/ more upside than any position prospect in the #Mets org. It could be special. 1st Div/All-Star type

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm curious to see where Rosario starts the 2014 season. Brooklyn? Savannah? St. Lucie? (St. Lucie would me he's on a fast track; it's probably very unlikely.) I'm guessing we won't see him at [crossout:2lap2pez]Shea[/crossout:2lap2pez] Citi Field until around 2018.

[Frayed Knot]

A bit more about Molina from the Comments section from the Jason Parks who concocted BP's list:
"It's about scouting not stats. Molina is an ultra-athletic arm that can already work 91-96 with the heat; flash two promising off-speed pitches; good feel for craft; high competitive fire.
That's what I look for when scouting a young arm. He's more than just an arm strength pitcher."


You also have to like the part where Parks opines that Syndergaard possesses an "80" fastball at the present. Not a potential 80 fastball at some point in the future, but has it right NOW!!!!

[Benjamin Grimm]

I get the sense that if it weren't for the "Super Two" thing, Syndergaard would have an excellent chance of making the rotation right out of the gate.

[Frayed Knot]

I still think there's a feeling that his secondary pitches need some fine-turning that'll come with the sort of repetition that he can use from a half season at AA or AAA
Some used to talk about his curve being too inconsistent but more recently, and even in Syndergaard's own words in a recent Q&A I read, it's the change-up that needs some work.

[Frayed Knot]

Other tid-bits from the comments section

-- on a question about a Dominic Smith/Lyle Overbay comparison: lefty swing, doubles power plus 15-20 HRs, good glove, etc. ... Parks replies:
Smith could have more than just an acceptable glove; he's a plus defender. But the offensive profile (Overbay) isn't far off. Smith will arrive younger and has more ceiling, but good average/OBP with big doubles pop sounds about right.

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: I still think there's a feeling that his secondary pitches need some fine-turning that'll come with the sort of repetition that he can use from a half season at AA or AAA Some used to talk about his curve being too inconsistent but more recently, and even in Syndergaard's own words in a recent Q&A I read, it's the change-up that needs some work.

Is Las Vegas really the place to develop a curve ball (Thin, dry air)?
I'm not sure.

Later

[nymr83]

MFS62 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: I still think there's a feeling that his secondary pitches need some fine-turning that'll come with the sort of repetition that he can use from a half season at AA or AAA Some used to talk about his curve being too inconsistent but more recently, and even in Syndergaard's own words in a recent Q&A I read, it's the change-up that needs some work. Is Las Vegas really the place to develop a curve ball (Thin, dry air)? I'm not sure. Later

Everyone I've seen who grades/talks prospects say he needs a little more work. Barring injury the Mets are set with Colon, Niese, Gee, and Wheeler. Even if they discarded Dice-K and Lannan the best young starter for RIGHT NOW is supposed to be Montero

[Frayed Knot]

BA's overall list is out:

16 = Snydergaard -- his secondary pitches flash above-average if not better. More consistent power on his curveball would complement his premium fastball and help him make a midseason jump to New York.

38 = d'Arnaud -- Stay. On. The. Field. His first injury-free season since 2011 would help make d�Arnaud a Rookie of the Year contender.

68 = Montero -- Few minor leaguers throw more consistent quality strikes than the smallish Montero, and as long as he maintains his command he should get his first shot in New York in 2014.

92 = Dominic Smith -- might make his full-season debut at low Class A Savannah, a decided pitcher�s park. He�ll have to focus on his hitting approach and avoid getting down if the results aren�t there this season.