Adventures in Closerland

[Frayed Knot]

I've been tracking closers this year with the idea of getting some season-long data on save situations and the percentage of successes and failures*.
So towards that end I've been checking out box-scores and line-scores of games other than ours and marveling sometimes as the stuff that goes on in late innings and how it's so much easier to take when you don't have a personal stake in the result.

To wit, last night in Tampa (well, actually it's in St Pete):
- In a game that started with the BoSox jumping to a 6-0 lead before Rays hurler Alex Cobb could record the first out, and one that was well past the three-hour mark by about the 7th inning ("Forget Jake, it's Beantown"), the Rays fought all the way back to tie the game at 6 in the bottom of the 8th (Sox got seven hits in the 1st then two total in innings 2-thru-9 ... sound familiar folks?).

Anyway, game goes to the 10th and the Sox score twice in top half and in comes 'designated closer' Andrew Bailey for the relatively simple (near 90%) two-run save. Except that Bailey starts the inning: HR, Walk, Walk, Single, Walk and now not only has Tampa tied the game but the bases are loaded, none are out, and, oh yeah, Evan Longoria is due up. But Bailey stays in (he was already Boston's 6th pitcher) and gets Longoria to hit into a 5-2-3 DP and then gets the next hitter as well and it's on to the 11th!!
Sox later won it in the 14th.
Game clocked in at 5:24




* But you're going to have to wait until the season is over for the results

[Guest cooby]

I have a particular horror of relief pitchers, so I am going to enjoy this thread

[Frayed Knot]

Philly will supposedly listen to offers for closer Jonathan Papelbon as the trading deadline approaches. (no, I'm not suggesting him for Queens).
Funny thing is that the Phils aren't totally out of things and even had a chance to move ahead of Washington this week if they swept the head-to-head series. Only problem is that Papelbon chose this series to get his first TWO blown saves of the season. Phils actually came back to win one of the games after he served up a tying HR in the 9th. Not so lucky last night though as the Phils went on to lose in extras on an Ian Desmond Grand Slam.


Pitt's Jason Grilli-- exhibit A in the argument that you never know where the next dominant closer is going to come from--blew his first save of the season last night in Cincy by giving up a 1-out HR to Jay Bruce. Grilli, a 36 y/o in his 11th ML season with his 6th team, was 25-for-25 [1.10 ERA; 0.765 WHiP] in saves opps prior to last night despite coming into this season with 5 career saves. Pitt also lost in extras and missed a chance to pull with a 1/2 game of Cincy for 2nd (they play again today) and within 3 games of StL in what suddenly looks like the toughest division in baseball.

[Frayed Knot]

Papelbon wasn't the only closer to have a tough weekend.

- Tigers DFA'd Jose Valverde and will almost certainly be looking for someone between now and the trading deadline. Remember that they essentially released him following last year's series of playoff disasters before giving him another shot once the season started.

- And in Saturday's DBacks/Reds game, closers Heath Bell and Aroldis Chapman took turns sucking.
Bell was handed a one-run lead but immediately gave up a walk followed by a 2R HR to Jay Bruce leading off the top of the 9th. He got out of the rest of the inning without further damage.
So then it was Chapman's turn to try and win the game with a one-run lead but instead handed the [crossout:3nxgz8r6]Reds[/crossout:3nxgz8r6] DBacks a walk-off win with an inning that included two hits + two walks + a wild pitch without ever recording an out.

Some days you just never know.

Edited June 23, 2013 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

You mean, he handed the Diamondbacks a walkoff win.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, that.


oe: And speaking of Chapman, something seems to have gone wrong with his control lately.
He was handed the "Cookie Save" on Sunday (one inning, three run lead) and almost gave it away even after getting the first two outs.
So with two out and none on he proceeded to give up a single, then a steal and an RBI Single, then Wild Pitch-ed that guy over, then HBP'd the next guy, then finally got a fly out with the tying runs on.

Maybe those consecutive pitches he winged over Nick Swisher's head a few weeks back during the Reds/Indians series really were accidental.

[Frayed Knot]

Another rough game for Papelbon as the Phils move out to the west coast.
This was wasn't entirely his fault ... but he contributed.

Cliff Lee was cruising toward a CG w/a 3-0 lead but when he started the 9th Single-Double, out came the hook.
So in comes Papelbon who immediately gives up a 2-RBI single then plunks the next guy.
He then got a GiDP with the tying runner moving on to 3rd but w/2 outs ... and a passed ball brought him home.
He then walked the next guy before getting the 3rd out which prevented the Phils from losing it right there.
They instead lost it in the 10th inning with De Fratus on the mound bringing them to just 3.5 ahead of the Mets

That's 4 blown games in a week for Papelbon who's both losing his value to the Phils (8 games out of 1st and falling) and on the trade market at the same time.

[ashie62]

Would Parnell be for sale...

That kid Montero running up the organiztion has master of his fastball working 91-93 9 tops but may be too slight of build to start...And he's cheap!!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

With that control and stuff? Montero will almost certainly start, start, and start again until he can't start anymore, slight build or no.

Mejia or Familia or Leathersich, though?

[Edgy MD]

If Parnell is to be moved, it probably isn't going to be this year.

[ashie62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: With that control and stuff? Montero will almost certainly start, start, and start again until he can't start anymore, slight build or no. Mejia or Familia or Leathersich, though?

Problem with Montero is he has no slider and a subpar curve, decent change and serious heat..Sounds like a closer to me.

Well. everything comes to a head..

[Frayed Knot]

Erstwhile closer Carlos Marmol was DFA'd by the Cubs on Tuesday not long after blowing that 3-run lead against the Mets.
Signed by the Cubs in 1999 and with the big club since 2006, he had racked up 117 saves over the years (3rd in club history) including 20 last season but they apparently got tired of his increasing unreliability.

And now MLBN is saying that he's been picked up by the Braves.


oe: Marmol to Braves info apparently NOT accurate.

[Frayed Knot]

Ollie Perez notched his second save of the season last night.
Came in to start the 9th inning with a 2-run lead in Cincinnati and K'd the side (Jay Bruce, Todd Fraizer, Derrick Robinson) on 11 pitches.

[Frayed Knot]

The Phils brought in Papelbon with a four-run lead last night vs Chicago and he almost blew it.
3 runs via two singles, one double, a walk, a wild pitch, and an E-7 brought the Cubs to within one when he got the final out on a fly out with runners on 1st & 3rd.

Wonder if his teammates signed up for that - or if he's just going to go with the 'non-save situation/no-adrenaline' excuse?


Too bad either way, Mets could have taken over 3rd place if the Cubs pulled it out.

[Zvon]

I watched the end of that game. Brown dropped and easy fly ball and even the Phils yakboxes (booth) were wondering if Pap would say nasty things after the game, especially if they lost it. As far as I can see he behaved.

[Frayed Knot]

Perhaps with visions of 2011's late-season collapse dancing in their heads, the Braves have been riding Craig Kimbrel HARD lately despite the HUGE lead they have in the NL East.

They actually held him out of Monday's game vs Nats and let Jordan Walden close even though it was a 'save situation' (and just a one-run lead at that) but that was Kimbrel's only day off in the last six and they went to him again with a three-run lead in the 9th last night where he survived but only after an arduous 36-pitch trial.

In all he's thrown a total of 99 pitches over the last five games/six days - including twice where the Braves had three-run leads.

[Frayed Knot]

The Closer: Not Quite as Important as You Think
Nothing new about that concept of course, but you wonder if this idea will finally gain a bit more traction because of it being printed in the NY Times.

Tyner Kepner uses last night's Sox/Yanx game as a kick off point - the one where Mariano failed to convert a save while Koji Uehara continued his (somewhat short) run as a near flawless closer in Boston which includes, according to what I heard last night, the highest percentage of perfect (1-2-3) innings this season.

Some of the quotes are kind of fun to read:
-- �I don�t want to take away anything from what I did,� Dennis Eckersley said Thursday before the game. �But it�s not as tough as you think.�, and I like that the piece attempts to debunk the idea that 9th innings are so much different than any other (Uehara was Boston's 3rd choice for the job) something I suspect 98+% of media-types repeat as if gospel.

And even though the current season is not yet over, it's still tough to remember some of the really bad deals/trades signed over last winter:
- Brandon League & Jonathan Broxton- both around 3 yrs/$22+ mil
- Boston trading for (and assuming the contracts of) Andrew Bailey (last year) and Joel Hanrahan (this year).
None of the four are closing

[Edgy MD]

Heath Bell broke the Marlins before they even got the whole kit out of the box.

[Frayed Knot]

[u:3mfbkr2n]Kloser Kwiz[/u:3mfbkr2n]

Over the most recent three seasons (2011, 2012, 2013) I count [u:3mfbkr2n]60 different pitchers[/u:3mfbkr2n] who served as their team�s primary closer -- and for purposes of this question, the primary closer is the one who leads his team in saves for that year

Of those 60
- 35 led a team in saves for only one of those seasons
- 20 led a team in saves exactly twice over those three years
- Which of course leaves just [u:3mfbkr2n]Five Closers[/u:3mfbkr2n] who led a team [u:3mfbkr2n]in each[/u:3mfbkr2n] 2011, 2012 & 2013

Kwiz A) Can you name the TWO from that group of five who led [u:3mfbkr2n]The Same Team[/u:3mfbkr2n] in saves the last three years?

Kwiz Can you name the other three;
- two of whom led two different teams during that span (obviously that means he led one team twice and one team once)
- and also the one guy who led three different teams once each?

[Edgy MD]

A) Kimbrel and, um, what's his name... Stumpy Joe.

[Frayed Knot]

Part A -- Kimbrel & _________

Part B:
Led Two Teams ______ & _______
Led Three Teams _______

[Edgy MD]

Chris Perez.

[Frayed Knot]

I figured Perez would be the tough part - if for no other reason that no one here pays a lot of attention to the Indians.
By the end of this season, Perez had lost his closers job (and been busted for having pot Fed-Exed to his house).

Part A -- Kimbrel & Chris Perez

Part B:
Led Two Teams ______ & _______
Led Three Teams _______

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

For leading two teams I will take a shot with Joe Nathan with the Twins and Rangers.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

B: Frank Frank and K-Rod?

[Frayed Knot]

Remember that the answers here have to have lead some team in saves over the last three seasons.
Edgy got the only two who led the same team all three years, the remaining three we're looking for were also the main closer three years running but did so for different squads (in two cases for two teams, in one case for three).

- Nathan is not correct because he missed a big chunk of 2011 (Matt Capps led the Twins that year).
- Neither KRod nor, more obviously, Frank-Frank led any team in saves this year.
Francisco did have two years running prior to this season (2011 w/Jays, 2012 for the Mets). Rodriguez hasn't been a team's main closer since the day he decided it would be a good idea to punch out his F-in-law back in 2011.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Papelbum (Phils, Bosox)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Houston Street (Rockies, Oakland)

[Frayed Knot]

And now we're left with only the guy who somehow led THREE teams in saves over the last three years: aka - thanks for saving our games ... now get out.


Part A -- Kimbrel & Chris Perez

Part B:
Led Two Teams Papelbon & Street
Led Three Teams _______

[HahnSolo]

Soriano?