I'm concerned. ... About the future.

[TransMonk]

The Mets have sucked for four years now. However unlikely it seems to Ceets, I don't see a terribly bright light at the end of this tunnel.

Yup, anything's possible, ya gotta believe, it ain't over 'til it's over, yyybbb. The next year or two (at least) still looks pretty trying to me.

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: The Mets have sucked for four years now. However unlikely it seems to Ceets, I don't see a terribly bright light at the end of this tunnel. Yup, anything's possible, ya gotta believe, it ain't over 'til it's over, yyybbb. The next year or two (at least) still looks pretty trying to me.

David Wright, R.A. Dickey, Ruben Tejada, Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler*, Ike Davis, Jon Niese etc.

They also played pretty good for the first four halves of those seasons, so why think it's the second half that's going to shine through going forward? Maybe a couple of adjustments and they don't sink next year.

[TransMonk]

I'm not saying there aren't bright spots...but overall, given the roster as a whole, the farm system as a whole and the questions surrounding financial flexibility, I'm not betting on a true contender in the immediate future.

[Ceetar]

and I know this thread is about concern, but I'm not really any more concerned about the future than I have been. Things don't seem particularly stacked against the Mets to me is all.

[Edgy MD]

Read enough Megdal, I'd be concerned about the future of a lot more than the Mets.

[Gwreck]

Ceetar wrote: Maybe a couple of adjustments and they don't sink next year.

If by "a couple of adjustments" you mean "a couple of better players."

The problem with your theory is that it depends on average players all having a good year all at the same time. I don't think that's a responsible strategy if you want to be in meaningful contention.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

"Debt-plagued?"

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: "Debt-plagued?"

A description of the Wilpons, if not the Mets, necessarily.

Megdal appears again to be shoehorning a whole lot of context into a couple of "magic quotes."

[ashie62]

I'm more concerned about Wrights interview talking about the goals of the franchise and wanting to play for a winner.

That doesnt sound like a man signing this oft season.

[ashie62]

TransMonk wrote: The Mets have sucked for four years now. However unlikely it seems to Ceets, I don't see a terribly bright light at the end of this tunnel. Yup, anything's possible, ya gotta believe, it ain't over 'til it's over, yyybbb. The next year or two (at least) still looks pretty trying to me.

Mets are 12 of 16 in attendance.

[Edgy MD]

Every player ever will make the same sounds. Wright can be accommodated or he can't. The difference will not be his assessment of whether or not Nimmo has the goods.

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: Every player ever will make the same sounds. Wright can be accommodated or he can't. The difference will not be his assessment of whether or not Nimmo has the goods.

Nimmo is not on his radar..The dedication to winning is.

[Edgy MD]

Which is measured how?

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: Which is measured how?

Maybe he want to be with someone like the Angels or Cards..ez livin for life.

[Edgy MD]

I don't see how that answers the question.

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: I don't see how that answers the question.

Hes looking for a winning culture..Will the Mets show him that?

Discussion closed.

[Edgy MD]

I didn't realize you had that power.

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: Ceetar wrote: Maybe a couple of adjustments and they don't sink next year. If by "a couple of adjustments" you mean "a couple of better players." The problem with your theory is that it depends on average players all having a good year all at the same time. I don't think that's a responsible strategy if you want to be in meaningful contention.

That's always going to be the case in some extent though. You get guys you think are going to have good years, and some of them don't. But I think that describes _this_ season pretty well. The Mets had a lot of players that may just be average but might've been more. Duda, Torres (dreaming on 2010, even though he's not been bad), Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Thole, Gee, Niese, Santana (via him being injured and us having to use an average starter)

But the thing is, we have a year more of data (with some yet to come) in which to make the assessment on which of those players are average, which are good, and which are average capable of having good years. Or average that had a good year that you can convince someone else is a good player. So now the Mets make a couple of adjustments to roster, but acquiring players to replace the ones they've determined not to be part of the solution. Some of those are going to be average guys we're hoping show something, but it should raise the chances of more guys having good years.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: But the thing is, we have a year more of data (with some yet to come) in which to make the assessment on which of those players are average, which are good [yada yada yada] ... So now the Mets make a couple of adjustments to roster, but acquiring players to replace the ones they've determined not to be part of the solution.

And why wouldn't that hold true for every other struggling team? Hey! Maybe next season, there's so much improvement going around that the league sets some sort of record when every team finishes over .500. You know what? I think the Mets are gonna need to win 105 games in 2013 just to qualify for the one game WC eliminator.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: But the thing is, we have a year more of data (with some yet to come) in which to make the assessment on which of those players are average, which are good [yada yada yada] ... So now the Mets make a couple of adjustments to roster, but acquiring players to replace the ones they've determined not to be part of the solution. And why wouldn't that hold true for every other struggling team? Hey! Maybe next season, there's so much improvement going around that the league sets some sort of record when every team finishes over .500. You know what? I think the Mets are gonna need to win 105 games in 2013 just to qualify for the one game WC eliminator.

Of course it's true for every other team! But the Mets have a little higher of a base than the Astros..with Wright and Dickey, et al. And even if they never really shake this off again, they're a 75 win team not a 65 win one. they don't need quite as many adjustments as the Royals. Small changes yield big results sometimes. Just another solidly good hitter, let's say an outfielder, would do amazing things for the overall offense for instance. Particularly if he can hit home runs.

[batmagadanleadoff]

So what about the 18 teams that have better records than the Mets? Can't they make the same adjustments to improve? You remind me of a friend I had who would always return from Atlantic City having won big at the casinos. He never lost. So he said. Of course, he calculated his winnings by counting his two big winning hands doubling down at Blackjack but wouldn't count the 30 straight losing hands in between that he suffered. You remind me of that guy. Because you'll remember the dramatic game winning bomb Torres or Valdy hit but ignore the thirty or forty outs they make for every homer they hit. Then you'll extrapolate next year's projection for these guys based only on their highs.

[Edgy MD]

It would seem to me that just getting back up to average in leftfield would take the team a nice ways. But I checked and leftfield isn't even the team's weakest offensive position relative to the league, thanks to Hairston getting hot when Bay got hurt. When Thole got hurt, by comparison, Nickeas was... not hot.

c 14th of 16
1b 13th of 16
2b 4th of 16
3b 1st of 16
ss 6th of 16
lf 12th of 16
cf T8th of 16
rf 14th of 16

p 3rd of 16
dh 5th of 16
ph 2nd of 16

infield 7th of 16
outfield 14th of 16

Now many of those numbers are tempered by other realities. We look sweet at second, but our defense is below average, and Murphy's relative health may have put us ahead of a team or two with a stronger player who got hurt. But we've got a possible lead on a catcher to take cuts against lefties and maybe help out with catching Dickey, so I think top priority (beyond re-signing Dickey and Wright) remains replacing Bay and letting a whole bunch of guys fight for right (or left, if we sign a rightfielder), center, and first.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: So what about the 18 teams that have better records than the Mets? Can't they make the same adjustments to improve? You remind me of a friend I had who would always return from Atlantic City having won big at the casinos. He never lost. So he said. Of course, he calculated his winnings by counting his two big winning hands doubling down at Blackjack but wouldn't count the 30 straight losing hands in between that he suffered. You remind me of that guy. Because you'll remember the dramatic game winning bomb Torres or Valdy hit but ignore the thirty or forty outs they make for every homer they hit. Then you'll extrapolate next year's projection for these guys based only on their highs.

the same adjustments? no, two teams can't sign the same players. I'm not saying it's simply "Plug in this guy" or that it'll be easy. The Mets leapfrog some of those 18 teams by finding the better adjustment which will come from evaluation and budget and all sorts of things. Doesn't mean they will find the better player, just that they can.

Don't compare me to that guy. You can't only look at highs, but there's some calculation for floor too. Torres for instance, has been basically league average this year by OPS+. (Actually, he's dropped to 93. was 97 last time i looked) the chances Torres is somewhat capable are pretty good. (career 97 OPS+) he's older but not that old. So while you don't pencil him for 2010 Torres, you know he's probably not going to kill you. Valdespin might make a good lefty pinch-hitter guy, but I'm not comfortable expecting him to be more than that. I think what's killed the Mets more than anything this year is that when some of these guys struggle, they _really_ struggle. Torres too. Duda. Nieuwenhuis. Davis. the left fielder. It's so feast or famine that it feels like when one guy does real well, there's someone else balancing him out by not hitting anything. So a couple of adjustments. get a good outfielder. replace some of these marginal guys that go into month long slumps maybe in favor of a Torres like guy that's going to at least get on base. Murphy seems like this guy to me, even when he's slumping is good enough with the bat usually to slap a single here or there. though you'd like him to walk more.