Prospect Lists of 2011-2012

[Edgy MD]

Baseball America sez:

1. Zack Wheeler, rhp 2. Matt Harvey, rhp 3. Brandon Nimmo, of 4. Jeurys Familia, rhp 5. Cesar Puello, of 6. Jenrry Mejia, rhp 7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, of 8. Michael Fulmer, rhp 9. Reese Havens, 2b 10. Wilmer Flores, ss As for other categories, the magazine named Juan Lagares as the best hitter for average, Zach Lutz as the best power hitter, Danny Muno as the best strike-zone discipline and Pedro Zapata as the fastest baserunner. In pitching categories, Wheeler claims the best fastball and curveball, with Harvey the best slider and Darin Gorski the top changeup and best control.

Past kings of the hill Wilmer Flores and Fernando Martinez have dropped, to 10th and DNF, respectively. In the latter case, that's clearly falling stock. In the former, its the stock but also the stronger field. Still, it demonstrates some fallen confidence in the slow shortstop that oft-injured Reese Havens is ahead of him.

Last year's #1 was Mejia, still holding strong to number six with his surgically repaired arm. But Familia? Holy crap, he's really gone from being Mejia lite to the passing the standard?

And Puello? Really? .259 / .313 / .397 // .710 from an A-ball outfielder at 20? It's intriguing, but...

[Benjamin Grimm]

So who's the closest-to-ready center fielder in the system? I don't get the sense that there's anyone who will be ready to step in for Angel Pagan as early as next April, so they'll probably need to bring in a guy for at least one year. But I wonder if it's possible that the Mets might have a homey starting in center field in 2013.

[Edgy MD]

Nearest to ready? Most literally, it's Pridie followed by Fernando Perez. Nearest to ready with the talent you want to see is probably Nieuwenhuis followed by Matt Den Dekker.

Nieuwenhuis had 50 games at AAA, but at least he hit. He could start if they're, you know, punting.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Nearest to ready? Most literally, it's Pridie followed by Fernando Perez. Nearest to ready with the talent you want to see is probably Nieuwenhuis followed by Matt Den Dekker. Nieuwenhuis had 50 games at AAA, but at least he hit. He could start if they're, you know, punting.

He's playing football too? that seems like it'd be a violation of his contract.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

They brought Castillo to camp because they had to pay him whether or not they did. They can be off the hook with Pagan this winter if they want to, and I think they want to.

I'd prolly make sure Sizemore isn;t a lost cause.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Has Fernando Martinez turned into the next Alex Escobar? Or does Baseball America consider him an actual Met rather than a minor league prospect?

[Frayed Knot]

Rockin' Doc wrote: Has Fernando Martinez turned into the next Alex Escobar? Or does Baseball America consider him an actual Met rather than a minor league prospect?

FM has had enough ABs/service time on the big club to where he no longer qualifies as a prospect under most definitions.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Rockin' Doc wrote: Has Fernando Martinez turned into the next Alex Escobar? Or does Baseball America consider him an actual Met rather than a minor league prospect? FM has had enough ABs/service time on the big club to where he no longer qualifies as a prospect under most definitions.

We'll find out soon. This is his last chance. well, as far as option years and easy manueverability goes anyway.

[Frayed Knot]

John Sickels weighs in on NYM prospects:

The Mets farm system has improved and I don't think it gets enough respect. There are some problems that have to be addressed, but they have some strengths as well. The organization is still suffering hangover from the way prospects were managed in the previous administration, but things are looking up.

I like the pitching. Harvey, Wheeler, and Familia are three hard-throwing right-handers with the ability to be staff anchors. The first two aren't far off the A- category, and Familia is a fine prospect in his own right. It may be tempting to rush Harvey and Familia to the majors sometime in 2012, but I think both will be better-positioned to help in 2013. Mejia is something of a forgotten man but I liked him a lot before he got hurt, despite the ridiculous way he was handled in '10.

Hitting is in tougher condition than the pitching. There are several very high upside players. There is some "shiny new toy" hope regarding Nimmo, but while his selection has been questioned by some, I like him. Products of the Latin American program like Puello, Flores, Valdespin (and Aderlin Rodriguez and Gilbert Gomez) have high upside but have yet to fulfill their potential, with strike zone issues being a persistent theme. Gomez had a nice run at St. Lucie but it was 75 at-bat sample and out of context with the rest of his career. I want to see more.



1) Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade B+:
He can be a number two starter and someone to build around. Some evaluators see him more as a closer if his changeup remains erratic, but I'm cutting him some slack on that issue and am optimistic.

2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B+:
This is actually more like Harvey 1-A and Wheeler 1-B. They are very close but Harvey is closer to being ready. Like Harvey, I see Wheeler as a future number two starter and staff anchor. He made big strides with his control last year. Like Harvey his changeup needs more work, but I'm optimistic about him given the improvements he's already made.

3) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B:
Control still needs work, but took a major step forward towards harnessing his stuff. Could be a number three starter, perhaps more with additional changeup refinement. Could also end up as a fine closer.

4) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B:
Borderline B-, One of my favorite players from the 2011 draft. Strong tools, skills are more refined than you think given his Wyoming background. There's some risk here but lots of upside too.

5) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade B-:
Tough to grade and I'm not really comfortable with this guy. Tools are very impressive and he started tapping into his power. However his strike zone judgment slipped badly, with a dramatic reduction in his walk rate and increase in strikeouts. Power improvement was cancelled out by loss of OBP, and Double-A pitchers will easily exploit his over-aggressiveness. However, many scouts really like him and think he's going to break through, plus he was just 20 last year. Upside is very high but risk of failure is quite high as well.

6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade B-:
Positives here are solid tools, high walk rate, moderate power (secondary average skills). Weaknesses include high strikeout rate and inability to hit left-handed pitching. I've seen him compared to Brett Jackson but Jackson is a better athlete and younger. Kirk looks like a very solid platoon player/fourth outfielder to me. Doesn't have Puello's ceiling but a much higher floor. I've gone back and forth about 10 times between Kirk and Cesar in the 5/6 spots.

7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B-:
Waiting on Tommy John recovery at this point. I've liked him for awhile but he was handled badly by previous administration and it is still unclear if he's a starter or reliever going forward.

8) Reese Havens, 2B, Grade B-:
Borderline C+. I like his power/patience combination and ability to handle second base, but his health care expenses have helped bankrupt the organization. If he manages to avoid injuries he can be a .260 hitter with 15 homers and a fine OBP.

9) Wilmer Flores, 3B-SS, Grade B-:
Borderline C+. Still very young at age 20. Switch over to third base increases pressure on his bat. Will he develop sufficient power for that position? He keeps his strikeout rate low but power hasn't blossomed as Mets hoped, granted he was promoted aggressively. Stock is starting to sag but it isn't too late yet.

10) Cory Mazzoni, RHP, Grade C+:
Borderline B-: North Carolina State product has sound combination of solid stuff and command. I don't think he got as much attention as he deserved in pitching-rich 2011 draft class and I expect good things from him.


More here on players 11-40-ish, on the system as a whole, and also comments from readers/prospect-geeks

[ashie62]

I'm kinda tired of hearing Wilmer Flores being labeled as "still young." That pretense didn't work with Fernando Martinez and looking at Flores' body of work last season I am becoming skeptical of him.

[Edgy MD]

He's dropped from being broadly labeled the team's top prospect to (according to Sickles) ninth, and Sickles has no reason to offer pretense.

[Frayed Knot]

It's also a factor of Latin players because they're signed so young which in turn makes the gap between their promise and actual payoff a lot longer and much more speculative.
If Flores were an American HS player we would have only heard of him in the last year or so and if he went the college route he'd yet to be drafted.

[Edgy MD]

With two assertions that Mejia was badly handled, I'd like to see that argument fleshed out.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: With two assertions that Mejia was badly handled, I'd like to see that argument fleshed out.

I think too much is probably made of that. Maybe if he'd stayed in the majors as a reliever all season.. (although Jerry/Dan going all "Only throw fastballs" on him may have been a bad idea) It wasn't those innings that caused him to need Tommy John. That was probably coming anyway.

[Frayed Knot]

It's not so much that they think his use caused the injury and subsequent TJ surgery but rather the idea that his early call up and sudden conversion to a reliever stunted his overall development as a pitcher seems to be an article of faith among those who opine on this sort of thing. It's impossible to prove of course (one way or the other) but it's a more or less accepted 'fact' at this point.
Sickels in particular has been critical of teams in general and the Mets in particular for what he sees as rushing prospects through the lower levels of the minors so this one is right up his alley.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: It's not so much that they think his use caused the injury and subsequent TJ surgery but rather the idea that his early call up and sudden conversion to a reliever stunted his overall development as a pitcher seems to be an article of faith among those who opine on this sort of thing. It's impossible to prove of course (one way or the other) but it's a more or less accepted 'fact' at this point. Sickels in particular has been critical of teams in general and the Mets in particular for what he sees as rushing prospects through the lower levels of the minors so this one is right up his alley.

There's a lot of The Mets Used To Do It This Way So This Way Must Be Wrong going on though. They promoted guys aggressively with Bernazard, but it's impossible to say that was clearly wrong. They were also criticized, although maybe not so much by the same people, for not starting Ike once Murphy got hurt in
2010.

They did ultimately demote Meija and he probably would've hit his innings goals had he not gotten hurt. I heard an interview recently, I think it might've been the Mostly mets one with Colin McHugh, where he mentioned that the Mets occasionally force guys into different roles in the minors so they're used to different situations because often times the major league need doesn't exactly fit the best minor league player.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ceetar wrote: There's a lot of The Mets Used To Do It This Way So This Way Must Be Wrong going on though. They promoted guys aggressively with Bernazard, but it's impossible to say that was clearly wrong.

How many homegrown major-league players-- regulars/"regular contributors"-- did the Mets system produce during the Minaya/Bernazard years? Really, just Davis (2.1 rWAR in 1 year) and Pelfrey (4.5 cumulative rWAR in parts of 5 seasons). Additionally, prior to 2011, Murphy had produced 1.6 rWAR in about 1 1/2 full seasons' worth of ABs.

If you accept that the contributions of Parnell and the like are more than outweighed by the "contributions" of system guys like Argenis Reyes and Andy Hernandy... Wright and Reyes excepted (pre-Minaya, after all), they had gotten about 8.2 major-league wins from their system in 6 years. That's putrid. If the problem wasn't with the pacing of development... then it was an issue of talent evaluation/acquisition, wasn't it?

The main issue most seemed to take with Mejia's treatment-- and I agree, to an extent-- was that he wasn't just kept from regular starting work for the marginal benefit-- third or fourth man out of the pen-- of a far-from-contending major-league team, but that he was apparently actively encouraged to "focus on what 'worked,'" rather than trying to develop/control his offspeed stuff.

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: It's not so much that they think his use caused the injury and subsequent TJ surgery but rather the idea that his early call up and sudden conversion to a reliever stunted his overall development as a pitcher seems to be an article of faith among those who opine on this sort of thing. It's impossible to prove of course (one way or the other) but it's a more or less accepted 'fact' at this point.

It may be impossible to prove, but it's not impossible to persuasively argue.

The lack of wisdom in their propensity to force guys is, to my thinking, more reinforceable.

How many homegrown major-league players-- regulars/"regular contributors"-- did the Mets system produce during the Minaya/Bernazard years?

This is tough to circle around. Do you count guys whose development began during the previous regime and came to fruition under M/B? Do you count guys whose development began under M/B and blossomed this year or will yet blossom? Why discount a guy who spent much or most of his development time in the Mets organization, but became a big-leaguer on another team? Are we discounting bullpenners? Murphy, Thole, Pagan, Gomez, Maine, Niese, Gee?

All that said, I agree that any fair slicing of the data would likely reflect poorly on the regime, particularly on Bernazard.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The main issue most seemed to take with Mejia's treatment-- and I agree, to an extent-- was that he wasn't just kept from regular starting work for the marginal benefit-- third or fourth man out of the pen-- of a far-from-contending major-league team, but that he was apparently actively encouraged to "focus on what 'worked,'" rather than trying to develop/control his offspeed stuff.

Well now you get into the differences of organizational goals versus on the field ones. (the overall quality of the team is basically irrelevant. The team doesn't proceed as if they have no shot, and the on the field guys certainly don't. The goal is to win games at the major league level) That last part is definitely the crux of any issue, but there is still value in determining how your fastball works with major league hitters. We're talking 27.2 innings here. That can helpful, and isn't necessarily detrimental, particularly if you then go back to working on offspeed stuff based on what you've learned about how guys see your fastball.

I think 2010 was too much of a hold pattern type year, and they probably should've either ridden Minaya through 2011 or let him go prior to 2010. The Meija decision was a shining example of what appeared to be organization disagreement on many things. (Omar was insistent on the minors and slowly changed his mind, or was overruled) That year reads like a free-for-all where decisions were made with three different plans that ultimately led to no clear long-term focus. It wouldn't surprise me if the final decision to promote Meija was made by a different person than chose to sign Jason Bay/a slugger and a different person who signed off on the Ike Davis promotion/waiting period.

As regards to guys they developed..part of it's that they were so active in the free agent market most years that they had less picks than others. Some of their drafts were pretty good, some were pretty bad, and all in all, with less picks you have less chances to find that 'diamond in the rough' type guy in a game that's a fairly big crap-shoot as it is.

[Edgy MD]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The main issue most seemed to take with Mejia's treatment-- and I agree, to an extent-- was that he wasn't just kept from regular starting work for the marginal benefit-- third or fourth man out of the pen-- of a far-from-contending major-league team, but that he was apparently actively encouraged to "focus on what 'worked,'" rather than trying to develop/control his offspeed stuff.

My impression was that (1) he was to work more on his offspeed stuff when he was shifted back to the starting role at the minor league level, and that (2) there was no reason to think that the 2010 Mets broke camp as a "far-from-contending" team. It's just the way it broke. It's the way it almost always breaks, but there are arguments to quit (and enter into a full-scale development-only focus) with every season. Especially in retrospect. We had a poster here furious that the Mets didn't spend the 2000 season rebuilding --- replacing Olerud with Zeile instead of just cashing everything in after Olerud walked. The reality of the 2000 pennant would not dissuade him.

I think it's arguable that the Mets hurt Mejia (sure, why not?) but I think it'd be just as arguable if he started the season in the Buffalo pen and got hurt after switching to the rotation, or if he got hurt after attempting to spend the full season at Buffalo in one role or the other. He got hurt. You look for reasons. But the cause and effect isn't at all clear and it helps no one to pretend it is.

Was his ability dampened by his allegedly focusing too much on his hard stuff? He hasn't thrown one pitch since the injury so that's going to take some time to judge. It's certainly valid speculation, but the certainty of the like of Sickels seems a little bit like silly chest-thumping.

[Ceetar]

Meija went from basically unknown, to the next Gooden, to an example of the Mets bungling the farm, to yet another prospect that can't stay healthy in warp speed didn't he?

[ashie62]

I'm just gonna accept the reality that most prospects don't make it and those that do are gifts from God.

[Frayed Knot]

I don't think anyone is claiming otherwise - and certainly anyone who thought they were being sold the notion that Wilmer Flores was some sort of guaranteed All-Star based on a teenage season or two at the lower rungs of the minors have only themselves to blame if they wind up disappointed.

[smg58]

I look at Flores as the same kid with undeveloped raw talent that he was last year. His top ranking was probably unwarranted, but the size of the drop may be unfair as well.

A lot of people (myself included) were critical of the Mets' handling of Mejia in 2010, and while it's unfair to say that's what caused the injury, the critics have no grounds to consider a retraction. On one hand, pitching arms are generally fragile and young pitching arms are particularly fragile, so these things happen. On the other hand, the fact that young arms are particularly fragile means that jerking the guy around was the worst thing you could do, regardless of what you thought about the initial decision to put him in the pen.

Has anybody since Reyes and Wright come through the Mets system and had a better career to date than Pelfrey? Maybe Kazmir, but I don't know if he's really had any more good seasons than Pelfrey and his career might already be over.

[Edgy MD]

See, I don't see why putting him in the pen should be considered to be jerking him around nor the worst thing you could do. I think it was done as part of an intentional and specific plan that they were clear about and he understood. It allowed them to limit his innings and expose him to the top competition of the big leagues on a limited basis, which he was more-or-less ready for, but not take him off the starter track.

There's certainly a case against all of that, but not such an open-and-shut one that would suggest it's the worst thing you could do. Introducing young starters to the big leagues as relievers is a model with plenty of precedent.

Sure, plenty were against it then. And I'm not asking for a retraction. I'm asking them now what I hoped to hear then and didn't. Why? And why so absolutely?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Introducing a guy like Mejia-- who is working not only on his pitching, but his actual pitches-- to the majors seemed and seems pretty counterproductive on its face.

It never seemed a just-do-what-you-do assignment; it was a throw-the-fastball-because-that's-what-works-best-right-now (and-what-Jerry-wants) assignment (and, in essence, a don't-throw-that-other-crap-because-we-want-to-win-games-here assignment).

Is it the worst thing you can do to any young pitcher? Probably not. But it is and was remarkably shortsighted from an organizational standpoint, and when the tradeoff potential is 30-40 good innings from the 'pen for THIS particular team (and when I say "obvious non-contender," I mean "in all likelihood, heading into the season, they weren't a Mejia away from a division title"), it's outright dumb.

[Ceetar]

smg58 wrote: Has anybody since Reyes and Wright come through the Mets system and had a better career to date than Pelfrey? Maybe Kazmir, but I don't know if he's really had any more good seasons than Pelfrey and his career might already be over.

hardly already over.

I dunno, Pagan? Probably up there with Pelfrey in terms of contribution. Guys like Humber and Bell and even Mike Carp have had some spots of success.

[Edgy MD]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Introducing a guy like Mejia-- who is working not only on his pitching, but his actual pitches-- to the majors seemed and seems pretty counterproductive on its face.

Why? Again. There are plenty of precedents, starting with Nolan Ryan. And Mejia was hardly a disaster. He was a mediocrity with some ups and some downs.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: and when the tradeoff potential is 30-40 good innings from the 'pen...

I think the idea is that the tradeoff is also big league experience. That has a value.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: ...for THIS particular team (and when I say "obvious non-contender," I mean "in all likelihood, heading into the season, they weren't a Mejia away from a division title"), it's outright dumb.

I disagree. Virtually all teams are more than one piece away. Virtually all teams need a lot of things to break right. I don't think it's true that the 2010 Mets were such a hopeless case going into the season, even with Jeff Francoeur being a disaster waiting to reveal itself. I wouldn't imagine reviews of 2010 season previews would reveal the Giants and Rangers to be in such a better position than the Mets.

Which isn't to say I didn't and don't disagree with a lot of things that went into the team (starting with the manager). But if they were a team I was running, I sure wouldn't have washed my hands of them.

[smg58]

By jerking him around, I meant sending him to the pen and then changing course midseason, which I'll argue is worse for a young arm than doing one or the other, and also worse than starting the season with him in the AAA rotation and then shortening him up in August if the Mets needed pen help.

I think the complaints had to do with the timing of it. It's not the idea of starting his major league career in the bullpen; there is indeed lots of precedent for that and the Rangers have lately turned it into a science. It's that he was very young and lacking in seasoning, he hadn't fully developed his arsenal of pitches, and he had given the Mets no reason to think that he was already a better relief pitcher than Parnell, who was demoted in his stead despite pitching decently out of the pen in 2009.

[Edgy MD]

Has anybody since Reyes and Wright come through the Mets system and had a better career to date than Pelfrey? Maybe Kazmir, but I don't know if he's really had any more good seasons than Pelfrey and his career might already be over. hardly already over. I dunno, Pagan? Probably up there with Pelfrey in terms of contribution. Guys like Humber and Bell and even Mike Carp have had some spots of success.

Fangraph WAR scores:
Pelfrey: 8.3
Kazmir: 16.6
Pagan: 10.3
Murphy: 5.4

A few of these guys are still getting their traction and have a perfectly good shot to pass Pefrey in the next two or three years.

Bay debuted between Reyes and Wright, I think, and obviously is in a different category altogether, though very little of that, unfortunately, due to his performance with the Mets.