Evaluating Angel (split from IGT - 8/24 Mets @ Phils)

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: It's a LITTLE more than the throws. It's the baserunning, it's the batting approach, it's the routes to the ball... over the better part of this year, he appears to have regressed to what his detractors said about him prior to last year. This. If Pagan is going to bat .260 with limited power, then he needs to have outstanding defensive and baserunning skills, which he doesn't.

You're overlooking that Pagan's poor start was mainly bad luck and that he's almost got his numbers back up to career norms anyway. He played a fine outfield last year, so it's not like it's beyond him. So really it's about some of the insane defensive moves he's made and how likely he is to at least significantly cut back on them.

[batmagadanleadoff]

You're overlooking that Pagan's poor start was mainly bad luck and that he's almost got his numbers back up to career norms anyway.

I'm not so sure if I'm supposed to be impressed by Pagan reaching his career norms, if he's even done that, as you claim.

Below are Pagan's slash rates, split -- batting lefty against a RHP, and batting righty against a LHP:

Career
LHB v RHP .293/.345/.437
RHB v LHP .251/.300/.397

2011
LHB v RHP .270/.324/.410
RHB v LHP .250/.324/.323

As bad as Pagan usually is against lefties, in 2011, Pagan's numbers against LHP's have regressed -- or at least his power; this season, Pagan has 0 HR's against lefties even though his HR rate is typically better against southpaws.

There's really no nice way to say this, and no other way to interpret the numbers: Pagan sucks against lefty pitching. Against lefties he is such a liability as a starter so as to undermine any argument for Pagan as an everyday player. It's too bad Pagan can't play catcher.

[Vic Sage]

guys, we've already had the discussion about Pagan with Ceetar... it's like barking at a knot. He never lets reality cloud his judgment.

but with regard to this:

He played well in 2010, not so well in 2009 and this season.

some fact checking please. He was great in 09 -- in the half season he played. It was clearly that great 1/2 season that earned him the starting job in 2010, where his crappy hitting vs LHP brought him back to Earth a bit, with a good, but not great, overall season. This year is more like last year than 09 -- and more like his pre-09 career in its entirety (including minor leagues).

He is what he is... a bonehead, erratic in the field and on the bases despite obvious talent, with a significant career-long platoon differential. i.e., a platoon player.

[Ceetar]

He has roughly the same OPS this year against Lefties as Ryan Howard, at a more premium defensive position. (and even with his arbitration raise will be making a 6th of what he does) Yes, he's not playing it well this year, but that's actually the oddity. He's got a positive defensive WAR every other year.

His .164 BABIP in April is the luck that's pulling his stats down, even his average against lefties. He's only got 108 PA against them. Also, the Scott Hairston (and even Paulino) lefty-mashing signings were probably a result of Alderson's understanding of Pagans lefty troubles.

I'm not trying to deny he's having a bad year. He's having a bad year in the field and at the plate. He's 18th among qualifying CFers in OPS. (Of course, his career numbers, particularly his Mets career, would have him in the top half and he usually plays better defense than many of them)

I think it's a reasonable assumption to expect Pagan to basically be Pagan next year. And even for $4 mill or so, that's going to be valuable. There also isn't going to be a whole lot of options for the Mets to replace him for both a reasonable rate and have that replacement be obviously and predictably better. Certainly can keep an eye out, but it definitely seems more reasonable to keep Pagan, and let a prospect attempt to push him out. The Mets already need to replace RF, and while it's likely Duda, he's certainly not a lock to be a good player.

But yes, we've had this argument before. And really, not much has changed beyond the raise he's going to get.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, some deeper fact-checking will reveal that while he may have earned the 2010 starting job based on his 2009 failure in your estimation, what really got him in the lineup was Garry Matthews, Jr.'s utter failure.

Also, he was nothing short of excellent defensively last year. All year. So while he has indeed been erratic this season, something has changed from last.

[TransMonk]

FACT:
Angel Pagan 2009 WAR: 3.0
Angel Pagan 2010 WAR: 5.1

Angel Pagan 2009 dWAR: 1.2
Angel Pagan 2010 dWAR: 2.2

FACT:
If you google "2009 Pagan baserunning", you will receive the following links:

Manuel Singles Out Baserunning Gaffes | NJ.com
July 2009 - Meet the Mess
Pagan on Baserunning Blunders: �Nobody is perfect�
Angel Pagan - Worst Baserunner Ever? - ProSportsDaily.com

Pagan was not "great" in 2009. Offensively, he was better than this season, but he was making the same stupid outfield and baserunning mistakes that he's making this year.

[Ceetar]

4.2 WAR is pretty good. (and it's cumulative, so it's actually higher if you prorate it for a full year)

7.3 is top of the league.



from 2009-2011 among CFers, Pagan is 12th (of 75 that played at least 20% there) in WAR and 19th in OPS. That compares with guys like Carlos Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury.

[Vic Sage]

FACT: Angel Pagan 2009 WAR: 3.0 Angel Pagan 2010 WAR: 5.1 Angel Pagan 2009 dWAR: 1.2 Angel Pagan 2010 dWAR: 2.2 FACT: Pagan was not "great" in 2009. Offensively, he was better than this season, but he was making the same stupid outfield and baserunning mistakes that he's making this year.

i do NOT want to, nor WILL I, make an argument for Pagan, but lets be real. In 2009, he accumulated those 3.0 WAR in 88 games; the 5.1 in 2010 were garnered over a full season. He had an OPS of 122 in `09, compared to 107 in 2010. I'm not arguing that he was less of a bonehead in 09, he just hit better (specifically against LHP). So maybe "great" isn't the right word, in an objective sense, but merely great for him. It was certainly the best offensive season he's had to date, on a per AB basis. And surely it gave Omar the cahnfidence that he could use Pagan as his CFer, should he need to. But that season's production against LHP was an illusion of small sample size. The more he plays, the more he is exposed... at the plate, in the field, on the basepaths.

[batmagadanleadoff]

FACT: Angel Pagan 2009 WAR: 3.0 Angel Pagan 2010 WAR: 5.1 Angel Pagan 2009 dWAR: 1.2 Angel Pagan 2010 dWAR: 2.2 FACT: Pagan was not "great" in 2009. Offensively, he was better than this season, but he was making the same stupid outfield and baserunning mistakes that he's making this year. And surely it gave Omar the cahnfidence that he could use Pagan as his CFer, should he need to....

I'd bet anything that if Sandy Alderson GM'ed the 2010 Mets, he would have found a way to platoon Pagan and Francoeur, rather than believe that both Pagan and Frenchy, let alone just one of them, were everyday players.

[batmagadanleadoff]

FACT: Angel Pagan 2009 WAR: 3.0 Angel Pagan 2010 WAR: 5.1 Angel Pagan 2009 dWAR: 1.2 Angel Pagan 2010 dWAR: 2.2

Let me clarify Monk's post, mostly for my benefit.

Angel Pagan 2009 TOTAL WAR: 3.0 (1.8 oWAR - 1.2 dWAR)
Angel Pagan 2010 TOTAL WAR: 5.1 (2.9 oWAR) - 2.2 dWAR)

[batmagadanleadoff]

FACT: Angel Pagan 2009 WAR: 3.0 Angel Pagan 2010 WAR: 5.1 Angel Pagan 2009 dWAR: 1.2 Angel Pagan 2010 dWAR: 2.2 FACT: Pagan was not "great" in 2009. Offensively, he was better than this season, but he was making the same stupid outfield and baserunning mistakes that he's making this year. And surely it gave Omar the cahnfidence that he could use Pagan as his CFer, should he need to.... I'd bet anything that if Sandy Alderson GM'ed the 2010 Mets, he would have found a way to platoon Pagan and Francoeur, rather than believe that both Pagan and Frenchy, let alone just one of them, were everyday players.

The flaw in my theory is that if Alderson would've platooned Pagan last season, then why not this season? But for Pagan's stint on the DL through last May, he's played almost every game.

http://www.leaptoad.com/mets/metannual.php?ThisYear=2011&tabno=C&graphtype=pa

But then again, Alderson's not saddled with Frenchy, either.

[Ceetar]

Wish I could find some double splits easily, Angel versus LHP since his return from the DL. not that the sample size would likely be very meaningful.

I expected to see Hairston in CF a couple of times against tough lefties, but Hairston started out the season worse than Angel.