Chat with Big Shot Egghead NOW!!!!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=823&nocache=1300806599#new

[Guest Edgy DC]

What a great set of questions. Predictably (and mostly wisely) evasive answers, but a great group of interrogators trying to pin him down and suss him out.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Johnny form Brooklyn wants to know whether we'd even be having this chat were it not for the Wilpon's financial troubles.

[Theoldmole]

Joe D (Connecticut): Hi Paul, This is great of you to do for the fans. I was wondering what kind of balance you seek between high school and college talent throughout the draft? Do you lean one way or the other? Paul DePodesta: Great question, Joe. Much has been made of the college player over the last decade, but I'm always seeking the best player and/or best bet on the board. That strategy will lead to a blend of college, junior college and high school. Additionally, we have two teams in the Dominican Republic full of high school age players, and we view our system as one big pool of players, not separate entities.

Well the answer suggests, does it not, that this was not a great question?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Having assimilated many, many odd bits of data regarding human social-operating systems since he went online 37 years ago, DePodestaTron 3500 correctly gathers that one catches more flies with sweet pleasantries than blunt truth, and adjusts its actions accordingly.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Edgy (DC) wants to know which minor league squad to watch this summer.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Robert (Queens): What are your thoughts on Wilmer Flores? Paul DePodesta: Two days ago during a minor league game played on Field 7 (a field that is built precisely to the dimensions of CitiField - walls and all), Flores went oppo to deep right center field. Oppo. Right-center. In CitiField. He's 19. Like him! Seriously, he can really hit.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Some of these are beginning to sound like Dorothy Dix questions.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Hey "Demy from NYC" is me!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

How many asschunks are gonna ask about him drafting college players -- and get the same response?

[Guest The Second Spitter]

I never mentioned anything about on-base % in my question.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Coolest thing was him listing the roster of the front office number crunchers. Baumer has four other guys! And they apparently pre-date Alderson.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

He seemed to presume you meant those particular market inefficiencies, Spitter.

That said... I'd argue (politely) with the premise of your question. I think most teams value OBP more than they once did, and most teams have a larger stat component to their player-evaluation activities. But I don't necessarily agree that MOST teams let the numbers lead. Hell, some of the more recently successful ones seem somewhat married to trad-baseball-opinions (Phils, Giants).

OE: Looking at the 'script, it seems someone asked a variant on the market-inefficiency question (in short: "what inefficiencies are you looking to exploit?").

It's a little tough-- he was polite and all, but the questions you really want him to answer (see above)... well... he would kind of have to be an idiot to answer publicly.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

What I was getting at, is that the Moneyball thesis relies on information asymmetries. There are two ways to overcome AI ; (1) signalling (2) screening

Moneyball is basically (2). ((1) is not really applicable to the labor market)) - the person who is attributed as being the pioneer of Moneyball conceded this point. However, I did not wish to quote him to DePodesta, because he is no longer alive.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I found out recently that Baumer and I have a mutual acquaintance, and that he lives in my 'hood. Still haven't asked him on a date though.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The Second Spitter wrote: What I was getting at, is that the Moneyball thesis relies on information asymmetries. There are two ways to overcome AI ; (1) signalling (2) screening Moneyball is basically (2). ((1) is not really applicable to the labor market)) - the person who is attributed as being the pioneer of Moneyball conceded this point. However, I did not wish to quote him to DePodesta, because he is no longer alive.

You're talking about the info asymmetry between team and prospective player, or among teams competing for resources/negotiating trades?

And am I really betraying my econ ignorance-- I'm at best a hobbyist-- here?

[batmagadanleadoff]

[Guest The Second Spitter]

The first one -- according to Moneyball -- there is an inequality of data, relevant data is ignored, or the data is prejudiced. Basically, if every team uses the criteria espoused in Moneyball in its drafting choices, then no team gets an advantage.

This part of his response sounded awfully dogmatic to me;

In my mind, Moneyball is about constantly questioning the efficacy of your belief system and trying to uncover value where it's not readily apparent.

I accept this on a conceptual level - but:
(1) This cannot be done indefinitely (there are so many things you can judge ballplayers on);
(2) There are no means to judge the efficacy of your screening (whether you are employing the correct criteria).
(3) Even if the criteria you choose is correct, you cannot be certain that 10 other ballclubs are not using the same criteria, hence diluting your "edge".