Dueling Prospect Lists

[Guest Edgy DC]

Hardball Times, who I don't trust too much due to the fantasy angle, eliminates Duda entirely.

The Hardball Times

New York Mets: Top 10 Prospects

1. Wilmer Flores / 3B/SS /
His 36 doubles and relatively low strikeout rate are great signs for Flores, a talented teenager holding his own wherever he goes. He is the Mets' unquestioned No. 1 prospect.

2. Reese Havens / 2B/3B/SS /
Havens has a well-rounded bat that could prove to be adequate enough to excel at third base, let alone a middle infield position. Health is the concern with Havens, but let's bite and take an aggressive approach.

3. Aderlin Rodriguez / 3B /
Rodriguez put up some gaudy numbers in the Appalachian League and even has the makings of a solid approach at the plate. He is athletic, projectable, and, despite his current deficiencies, finds himself high up on this list.

4. Matt Harvey / RP/SP / Harvey was a wild overdraft in 2010, as his stuff and delivery seem better suited for the bullpen, where he could be a standout, rather than starting. The Mets must see something more than most do, so he finds his way into the Top 10.

5. Brad Emaus / 2B/3B/OF /
Emaus came in at No. 9 on Toronto's 2011 Top-10 list before being selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 draft. Many gave up on Emaus after a lousy 2009 campaign. Still largely unheralded, Emaus stepped his all-around offensive game up a notch, displaying the skills necessary to be an asset in the majors. The rumor is that New York will give him a shot at second base, but his defense there will have to be seen to be believed.

6. Cesar Puello / OF /
Puello's walk rate needs to improve dramatically, and there isn't much power to speak of, which is concerning for a projected corner outfielder, but Puello, just 19, has a steady bat and the look of a playmaker on the basepaths.

7. Cory Vaughn / OF /
Vaughn opened eyes with some big power numbers in short-season ball. He showed a solid approach at the plate as well, but, given his age, will undoubtedly need to prove his worth at higher levels.

8. Jeurys Familia / SP/RP /
Besides his 137 strikeouts and relatively strong groundball rate, Familia did little to help his stock. His curveball was maddeningly inconsistent and his fastball didn't take the next step. Still, youth is on his side.

9. Dillon Gee / SP /
Some call Gee a junkballer, others call him crafty. He has solid command of everything he throws and knows how to compete. In the majors he could make a good back-end-of-the-rotation option.

10. Kirk Nieuwenhuis / OF /
Nieuwenhuis has his place in this weak system, but gets a lot of undeserved love. He still has some upside to work with, but looks the part of a borderline platoon corner outfielder who you're always looking to replace.

Also

New York Mets: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Jenrry Mejia / SP/RP
2. Wilmer Flores / 3B/SS
3. Ike Davis / 1B
4. Fernando Martinez / OF
5. Jonathon Niese / SP
6. Josh Thole / C
7. Ruben Tejada / 2B
8. Reese Havens / 2B/3B/SS
9. Aderlin Rodriguez / 3B
10. Matt Harvey / RP/SP

=#FF0000]Baseball America

TOP TEN PROSPECTS
1. Jenrry Mejia, rhp
2. Wilmer Flores, ss
3. Cesar Puello, of
4. Matt Harvey, rhp
5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, of
6. Reese Havens, 2b
7. Lucas Duda, of/1b
8. Fernando Martinez, of
9. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3b
10. Brad Holt, rhp

Also

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Wilmer Flores
Best Power Hitter Aderlin Rodriguez
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Brad Emaus
Fastest Baserunner ZeErika McQueen
Best Athlete Cesar Puello
Best Fastball Jenrry Mejia
Best Curveball Matt Harvey
Best Slider Jeurys Familia
Best Changeup Dillon Gee
Best Control Dillon Gee
Best Defensive Catcher Kai Gronauer
Best Defensive Infielder Wilfredo Tovar
Best Infield Arm Wilmer Flores
Best Defensive Outfielder Matt den Dekker
Best Outfield Arm Cesar Puello

PROJECTED 2014 LINEUP

Catcher Josh Thole
First Base Ike Davis
Second Base Reese Havens
Third Base David Wright
Shortstop Jose Reyes
Left Field Wilmer Flores
Center Field Angel Pagan
Right Field Cesar Puello
No. 1 Starter Johan Santana
No. 2 Starter Jenrry Mejia
No. 3 Starter Matt Harvey
No. 4 Starter Mike Pelfrey
No. 5 Starter Jon Niese
Closer Bobby Parnell

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE
Year Player, Position 2010
2001 Alex Escobar, of Out of baseball
2002 Aaron Heilman, rhp Diamondbacks
2003 Jose Reyes, ss Mets
2004 Kazuo Matsui, ss Rockies
2005 Lastings Milledge, of Pirates
2006 Lastings Milledge, of Pirates
2007 Mike Pelfrey, rhp Mets
2008 Fernando Martinez, of Mets
2009 Fernando Martinez, of Mets
2010 Jenrry Mejia, rhp Mets

TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE

2001 Aaron Heilman, rhp Diamondbacks
2002 Scott Kazmir, lhp Angels
2003 Lastings Milledge, of Pirates
2004 Philip Humber, rhp Royals
2005 Mike Pelfrey, rhp Mets
2006 Kevin Mulvey, rhp
(2nd round) Diamondbacks
2007 Eddie Kunz, rhp
(1st round supp.) Mets
2008 Ike Davis, 1b Mets
2009 Steve Matz, lhp
(2nd round) Mets
2010 Matt Harvey, rhp Mets

LARGEST BONUSES IN CLUB HISTORY

Mike Pelfrey, 2005 $3,550,000
Philip Humber, 2004 $3,000,000
Matt Harvey, 2010 $2,525,000
Scott Kazmir, 2002 $2,150,000
Lastings Milledge, 2003 $2,075,000

[Frayed Knot]

and throw in Sickels:

1) Wilmer Flores, SS,
2) Jenrry Mejia, RHP,
3) Matt Harvey, RHP,
4) Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B,
5) Fernando Martinez, OF,
6) Cory Vaughn, OF,
7) Juan Urbina, LHP,
8) Reese Havens, 2B,
9) Lucas Duda, OF-1B,
10) Zach Lutz, 3B,

... with BP probably getting around to the Mets in the next week or two





The BA list in particular seems a bit odd. They go high on the teenage Puello and the no pro IPs Harvey, yet ignores young'uns like Corey Vaughn, Jeurys Familia, and Juan Urbina. There's a 'Subscriber Only' Q&A going on so maybe they're splainin' themselves in that.
Haven't been reading HBT recently so I don't quite know where they're at these days, but their list doesn't look like it's all Fantasy geeked out even if that's their eventual target audience.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Also, Holt? Over the guys you mentioned (or, frankly, about 15-20 others)?

BA's lists have been of wildly-varying quality over the last few years.

[DocTee]

The op three and four of the top five play third base...let's get rid of Wright NOW to make room!

[Guest Edgy DC]

This is a little decptive, because various guys appear to be left off of one list or another because of varying standards of graduation, but I thought I'd do it anyway.

Player	HT	BA	JS	Avg
Wilmer Flores	1	2	1	1
Matt Harvey	4	4	3	2
Jenrry Mejia	NR	1	2	3
Reese Havens	2	6	8	T4
Aderlin Rodriguez	3	9	4	T4
Cesar Puello	6	3	NR	6
Cory Vaughn	7	NR	6	T7
Fernando Martinez	NR	8	5	T7
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	10	5	NR	9
Brad Emaus*	5	NR	NR	T10
Lucas Duda	NR	7	9	T10
Juan Urbina	NR	NR	7	12
Jeurys Familia	8	NR	NR	13
Dillon Gee	9	NR	NR	14
Brad Holt	NR	10	NR	T15
Zach Lutz	NR	NR	10	T15

[smg58]

A few people online have suggested Fernando Martinez needs a change of scenery. He needs a full season, more than anything else.

Has anybody gotten a quote from Ricciardi concerning Brad Emaus? Ricciardi drafted him, and presumably brough him to Alderson's attention before the Rule V draft.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think it's a safe bet that Ricciardi put on him on the table, but with his past with the guy, Emaus's secondbase orientation, a ~.100 isolated OBP, over a half a season at AAA, and coming in at 25, he may have been the perfect Rule V-guy for them.

[Frayed Knot]

Kevin Goldstein at 'Baseball Prospectus' chimes in with his Top Eleven List -- good write-ups on each player, something that's usually only available to paying subscribers (so you might want to read it quick in case they realize it and hide the whole thing.

1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP ***** (Five Star Rating)
2. Matt Harvey, RHP ****
3. Wilmer Flores, SS ***
4. Cesar Puello, OF ***
5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF ***
6. Reese Havens, 2B ***
7. Fernando Martinez, OF ***
8. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B ***
9. Cory Vaughn, OF ***
10. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF **
11. Darrell Ceciliani, OF **

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's more of what I expected. The Duda/Cecliani/Ratliff triumverate has to be acknowledged. You don't have to go nuts for them, but they each took big steps forward this year.

Simlilarly, it resists the all-or-nothing bet on Fernando Martinez. They slide him down without throwing him out.

Only two of 11 are pitchers, though. How un-Metly is that? (On the other hand, click the link and you see that 12-18 are all pitchers.)

[Guest attgig]

bp also put up 9 more to round out the top 20:
Nine More:
12. Juan Urbina, LHP: This Venezuelan has impressive projection, but there is still a wide gap between ceiling and reality.
13. Jeurys Familia, RHP: One of the strongest arms in the system, Familia is far more thrower than pitcher.
14. Robert Carson, RHP: Like Familia, Carson impresses with raw stuff, but the results are rarely there.
15. Brad Holt, RHP: Scouts still love his size, athleticism, and arsenal, but his command has regressed heavily.
16. Erik Goeddel, RHP: The over-slot draftee has a big frame to go with a plus fastball and even better slider.
17. Akeel Morris, RHP: A 10th-round pick, Morris could look like a steal with more strikes.
18. Dillon Gee, RHP: This gutsy battler has consistently put up numbers, but scouts doubt it will play in the big leagues.
19. Jefry Marte, 3B: He's an advanced hitter for his young age, but lacks power and a defensive home.
20. Matt Den Dekker, OF: This fifth-rounder is a defensive whiz who shocked with his bat in his pro debut. He could move up this list

[Frayed Knot]

Some places - looks like Hardball Times for instance - use time on the ML roster to eliminate players from being 'prospect eligible' even if they didn't exceed the usual rookie threshold for ABs & IPs. That could explain the absence of Martinez & Mejia on some lists.

[ashie62]

The cupboard is bare.

[Frayed Knot]

Ashie62 wrote: The cupboard is bare.

According to Goldstein (BP) -- Summary: Neither great, nor awful, the Mets' organization is a middle-of-the-road one that provides more long-term bets than immediate assistance to the big-league squad.



Not exactly "bare".

[Benjamin Grimm]

This wasn't very encouraging, given that we'll probably be asking a lot of him in 2011. Hopefully the scouts are wrong.

18. Dillon Gee, RHP: This gutsy battler has consistently put up numbers, but scouts doubt it will play in the big leagues.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: This wasn't very encouraging, given that we'll probably be asking a lot of him in 2011. Hopefully the scouts are wrong. 18. Dillon Gee, RHP: This gutsy battler has consistently put up numbers, but scouts doubt it will play in the big leagues.

Our number four starter as of this morning.

Frayed Knot wrote: Not exactly "bare".

Ashie's an all-or-nothing guy.

[metirish]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: This wasn't very encouraging, given that we'll probably be asking a lot of him in 2011. Hopefully the scouts are wrong. 18. Dillon Gee, RHP: This gutsy battler has consistently put up numbers, but scouts doubt it will play in the big leagues.

Not encouraging at all is it?, how to interpret that though, he puts up numbers, I assume good numbers?...scouts don't think it will play in the bigs, why?...he's a battler so I am thinking he throws a lot of pitches per outing, doesn't get deep in to games? what is it the scouts don't like?

Your the scout and Alderson is on the phone, he wants to know why you doubt Gee's stuff will play in the bigs.

Explain

[Frayed Knot]

Scouts tend to be "Tools" kind of guys so they're looking for prospects who either blow people away with pure arm strength, or with a killer breaking pitch, or, in the case of hitters, have tons of speed or power.
Gee, if he succeeds, is going to do so without any one outstanding tool but on smarts and location and changing speed, etc. Which isn't to say that you can't succeed that way, only that everything has to go right for that type of guy so he's the type scouts would bet against.

Nieuenhuis is a bit in that category as well and why folks are hedging their bets; he's considered good at several things but not outstanding in any one area - so if the hitting plateaus or the power doesn't develop then he won't have the "plus" defense or speed to cover, something which would leave him as just a corner OF with marginal side skills.


On the plus side, those are exactly the type of guys who tend to get overlooked a lot. Think Rick Reed for instance.