Camp Buzz

[Guest Edgy DC]

A place for discussion the off-hand quotes (along the lines of Mike Jacobs being a contender at first) and gotta-file-something stories that may mean something but usually amount to little once the 24-hour news cycle has rotatated.

Jerry on Reyes: "I would love to see him as a No. 3 hitter assuming the other parts fit."[/quote:sfwprqfy]

[metirish]

I like it , who would be hitting 1 & 2?

Castillo and Murphy?

[Guest Edgy DC]

He seems to be angling at Pagan for the alternative leadoff guy, until Beltran is available.

I, mice elf, like Castillo one and Reyes two.

[metirish]

More camp buzz has Hojo working with the guys hitting for power this season , more home runs.

"As an organization, we wanted to be a good offensive team with runners in scoring position," Johnson said as the Mets prepare to officially open camp tomorrow in Port St. Lucie. We wanted to be a good offensive club when it comes to strikeouts. We wanted to walk a lot and have a high on-base percentage. We achieved those goals in those areas, but we dropped in power. That is something we're going to address this year

Find the power

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Reyes, along with the rest of the organization, just left Jerry standing there with his schlong in his hands the last time the batting 3rd idea was brought up. The media/fan reaction was way over the top "How could they do this to him?" sorta crap.

It's a shame that the Mets (and Reyes) seem to have so much value tied up in the idea of being a leadoff hitter they won't have it any other way. And God forbid, if he struggles, everyone will point to the batting order as if that made a difference.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I like it , who would be hitting 1 & 2?

Castillo and Murphy?

[Guest Edgy DC]

What do they have for my CHONE this year?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

.390 hectoring/.536 kvelling, with a 152 CPR+ (adjusted Contrarian Post Rating) and a projected 15 Ashie-dumps on the season. (They're a little bullish on the Ashie-dumps, methinks.)

[metirish]

Interesting there from Berg , I'd hit Wright in the 2 hole but I don't think I would ever slot him in the # 1 hole.

Me , if I'm going with my thinking outside the box lineup , as apposed to pulling them out of a hat.

Murphy
Wright
Reyes
Beltran
Bay
Francouer
Santos
Castillo
Pitcher

No Beltran

Murphy
Wright
Reyes
Bay
Pagan
Francouer
Santos
Pitcher

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

But the most interesting thing Berg found? All the top suggested 2010 lineups have the pitcher batting eighth and Luis Castillo batting ninth. In essence, putting him there, Berg argues (and I don't disagree), "decreases the odds that the top of the Mets� order � the best hitters � comes up with outs on the board and ups the chances they�ve got someone on base to drive in."

Wouldn't that also be the case if Castillo hit 1st and the pitcher 9th? Or is he saying that Castillo's propensity to reach first base (and first base only) decreases the chances of getting runs in vs. a leadoff guy more likely to get an XBH?

Maybe the best thing any NL team can do for its lineup is train their pitchers to hit.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

But the most interesting thing Berg found? All the top suggested 2010 lineups have the pitcher batting eighth and Luis Castillo batting ninth. In essence, putting him there, Berg argues (and I don't disagree), "decreases the odds that the top of the Mets� order � the best hitters � comes up with outs on the board and ups the chances they�ve got someone on base to drive in."

Wouldn't that also be the case if Castillo hit 1st and the pitcher 9th? Or is he saying that Castillo's propensity to reach first base (and first base only) decreases the chances of getting runs in vs. a leadoff guy more likely to get an XBH?

Maybe the best thing any NL team can do for its lineup is train their pitchers to hit.

[Guest Edgy DC]

.390 hectoring/.536 kvelling, with a 152 CPR+ (adjusted Contrarian Post Rating) and a projected 15 Ashie-dumps on the season. (They're a little bullish on the Ashie-dumps, methinks.)[/quote:1bo3spoi]
Was it seawolf who created the WHOMP meteric?

Fifty Kranes to whoever can find that thread.

[Ceetar]

Once I heard the LaRussa justification, I liked it. The idea being that you want your power guy, Pujols in his case, up the most times with RISP, and want him up as much as possible, hence third. You want to avoid Pujols leading off the inning, and With three outs per, you should put three guys in front of him that are more likely to get on base than the pitcher. I'd be more apt to put Pagan there than Castillo, who I'd rather bat first to utilize the OBP. He did steal 20 bases last year, so he's still above avg speed.

Projections only work if you're replaying the previous year. Wright will hit more power in 2010, so leading him off won't be as beneficial as those projections make it out to be.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Once I heard the LaRussa justification, I liked it. The idea being that you want your power guy, Pujols in his case, up the most times with RISP, and want him up as much as possible, hence third. You want to avoid Pujols leading off the inning, and With three outs per, you should put three guys in front of him that are more likely to get on base than the pitcher. I'd be more apt to put Pagan there than Castillo, who I'd rather bat first to utilize the OBP. He did steal 20 bases last year, so he's still above avg speed.

Projections only work if you're replaying the previous year. Wright will hit more power in 2010, so leading him off won't be as beneficial as those projections make it out to be.[/quote:30j9n47y]

FYI: CHONE-- and they're usually a little pessimistic-- does peg Wright to have a better power year than last, at 23 HRs and 64 XBHs(along with 97 runs and 98 RBI)... but yeah, last year's power outage probably dragged those down a bit.

I'd still put Pagan up there-- he's got stronger ISO power than Castillo, and more to offer overall as a hitter (wOBA of .346 over the last two partial years to Castillo's .329), so I'd rather give him the extra at-bats. He and Reyes and Wright and Bay get that first round of at bats... then, essentially, you have Castillo as a "pre-leadoff" guy the rest of the game.

[Ceetar]

I'd live with that, it certainly would make many fans happy to see Castillo down in the order, but actually would provide value.

It's kinda pointless though, as Manuel is definitely not that forward thinking. Maybe in June when Valentine/other is managing?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Oh, I think he's forward thinking. He just has perhaps a different idea of forward than you do, or I do, or batmags does. But he's the one that started this conversation.

The problem with radical rethinking of lineups is that it's a personnel issue, and few managers --- Torre and LaRussa are two --- have the juice to institute that sort of change, and persevere through the backlash in the fanbase and media, and ultimately the clubhouse.

Francona is in a good position. If he tries something new, and they fail, yeah, people will naturally jump to the conclusion that they failed because they tried something new, but any crazy ideas can be attributed to Bill James.

[G-Fafif]

Managerial musings on batting orders are the annual useless fodder of early camp. Remember Willie's plan to bat Wright eighth? By the second game of the season, if not sooner, the best laid plans will give way to necessity, improvisation, new information and whatever works.

[Ceetar]

Managerial musings on batting orders are the annual useless fodder of early camp. Remember Willie's plan to bat Wright eighth? By the second game of the season, if not sooner, the best laid plans will give way to necessity, improvisation, new information and whatever works.[/quote:2c8pdxpp]

Well yea, it's not like we haven't heard the same words out of his mouth before. Reyes 3rd didn't even make it to the end of Spring Training, much like the "no DH in spring" rule. (Conspiracy theorists might note that he seemed to use the DH in untelevised games)

I just hate that Manuel speaks whatever thought passes through his head, without actually giving us any indictation if what, if any, his real plan is. For all we know he could've already forgotten about batting Reyes third.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Yeah, so you know how there was that sign in the PSL clubhouse I linked to yesterday?

Well, yeah... it's actually their Spring Training slogan/focus.

[batmagadanleadoff]

But the most interesting thing Berg found? All the top suggested 2010 lineups have the pitcher batting eighth and Luis Castillo batting ninth. In essence, putting him there, Berg argues (and I don't disagree), "decreases the odds that the top of the Mets� order � the best hitters � comes up with outs on the board and ups the chances they�ve got someone on base to drive in."

Wouldn't that also be the case if Castillo hit 1st and the pitcher 9th? Or is he saying that Castillo's propensity to reach first base (and first base only) decreases the chances of getting runs in vs. a leadoff guy more likely to get an XBH?

Maybe the best thing any NL team can do for its lineup is train their pitchers to hit.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I would guess Holliday would be first and Pujols second.

[bmfc1]

If Reyes bats third, Jerry will bat Castillo 4th so he can bunt him over.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Courtesy of Adam Rubin:

Jerry on Wright: "He just seems refreshed to me. ... He seems a lot lighter to me spiritually as well as physically." 8:53 AM Feb 19th from UberTwitter

Who knew spiritual "lightness" leads to gun ownership?

[Ceetar]

looking at that picture, makes me wonder if the camera guy that took it is still alive. David looks menancing.

[MFS62]

Me , if I'm going with my thinking outside the box lineup , as apposed to pulling them out of a hat.

Murphy
Wright
Reyes
Beltran
Bay
Francouer
Santos
Castillo
Pitcher

No Beltran

Murphy
Wright
Reyes
Bay
Pagan
Francouer
Santos
Pitcher

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

"Hey... do you know what the first few years of your career remind me of, statistically speaking?"

[Guest attgig]

Courtesy of Adam Rubin:

Jerry on Wright: "He just seems refreshed to me. ... He seems a lot lighter to me spiritually as well as physically." 8:53 AM Feb 19th from UberTwitter

Who knew spiritual "lightness" leads to gun ownership?

[ashie62]

David looks pretty pissed..Frenchie keeps pinching his azz

www.cbssportsline.com has their Mets camp tour today

Nothing earth shaking, but one of the teams slogans is "Prevention & Recovery" It states the Mets lost 53 million dollars of salaried production due to injury.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

From a Kernan article today, in which Jeff Francoeur is his usual bubbly self, and predicts 27 HRs for him (and 35 for David Wright):

"One of my big goals is to have better pitch recognition," said Francoeur, who hit .311 as a Met. "Sometimes you try to say it doesn't bother you to swing at a bad pitch, but it does. I'm human. I want to get better because I know if I can get better at that the rest of my game will follow. If I can mix in 50-60 walks, I become a totally different guy.

Encouraging words, and if he hits 25-plus home runs and walks 50 times, I'm buying a Frenchy shirt... I promise. Encouraging... except, as Ted Berg points out, he's aimed at being more selective a few times before.

[metirish]

Gotta love the optimism that surrounds Spring Training .