The Pen in Ten

[Guest Edgy DC]

Don't think we had a thread on this, but apparently Josh Fogg is under consideration.

He's coming off a good year in Colorado, but doesn't whiff too many, so I guess he's a groundball specialist, though I don't know necessarily what a good GB/FB ratio looks like. He better get a good defense behind him if he becomes a Met.

His starting days are likely behind him, which is probably for the best for all involved.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Brandon Webb's the freakish extreme-- 3.00 and above, usually. Guys like Pineiro, Lowe, Wang and Aaron Cook (and Feliciano!) are around the low-to-mid 2s.

Fogg's 1.17 G/F ratio is average, with a slight GB lean. And his fielding-independent pitching numbers from last year-- as you might imagine would be the case for someone who seems to pitch exclusively to contact-- are kinda... em... not so good. (5.29 FIP, 3.94 BB/9!)

[metirish]

If Neive and or Figgy don't make it as starters wouldn't they be a better bet for the pen, long men types which is what I'd think Fogg would be doing.

What are we looking for here? , Parnell and the japanese guy hopefully are the bridge to Rodriguez , Feliciano as the lefty specialist for his primary role. Escobar, where does he fit in? , we need that long guy and whatelse. I know I am forgetting someone.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

If Escobar's got his mojo* workin', I think he'd work as the primary bridge to Rodriguez. Velocity or no, Parnell's got nothing on him, K-wise.

*By "mojo," I mean "shoulder."

[metirish]

You're correct , I guess that's what they are betting on. Jerry likes Parnell though.

[MFS62]

Yikes!
I was able to finally get to baseball reference.com
Fogg hasn't been good even when he was "good":
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/foggjo01.shtml

Pass, Omar, please.

Edit: too late.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/new_york_mets/

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

Minor league deal. Great.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: Minor league deal. Great.

At least it doesn't mess up those 40 man rosters you work so hard on.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I always confuse Josh Fogg for Kip Wells, for whom he was once traded.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I keep camp invites on those charts also.

But seriously, folks, Buffalo needs arms also.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I always confuse Josh Fogg for Kip Wells, for whom he was once traded.

No sh*t? Same here. Except Jason Jennings* is in that same mental space for me as well, the Bill Petersen to Fogg-and-Wells' Pullman and Paxton.

*OE: From the NFW department: Josh Fogg's number one B-R.com Similarity-Score match. That's just spooky.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

wOw.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

A scrum of 20-plus enter, 6-7 men leave to go north. With less than a week until pitchers and catchers report, here's where the 'pen seems to stand (lefties get a star, with tossers in each category listed in rough speculative order re: the solidity/likelihood of their roster spot):

INCUMBENTS
Francisco Rodriguez (Ain't going nowhere.)
Pedro Feliciano* (Hopefully, ain't going nowhere.)
Sean Green (If there were an Aaron Heilman Sad-Bastard Honorary Slot, he'd be even more of a sure thing.)
Bobby Parnell (The accent's adorable. The lack of a real secondary pitch... increasingly less so.)

INFLEXIBLE NEWBS
Ryota Igarashi (2-year commitment probably makes him a slightly-surer thing than...)
Kelvim Escobar (Really, a sure thing until the wing falls off. In June.)

STARTERS WHO COULD FAIL SIDEWARD
Fernando Nieve (Does he stay in the 'pen as a swingman if he's beaten out for the 5th slot?)
Hisanori Takahashi* ("Like Moyer, but faster," say optimistic scouts. So, much more hittable, then?)
Nelson Figueroa (Am I obligated to write "Sentimental Favorite" before his name? I feel like I am.)
Pat Misch*
Josh Fogg (God help us.)

BUFFALO/BINGHAMTON BUS PASS CLUB
Clint Everts (Am I obligated to write "Former First-Rounder" before HIS name?)
Elmer Dessens (No, por favor.)
Eddie Kunz (According to beat reporter/job lobbyist Adam Rubin, actually in the best shape of his life.)
Arturo Lopez*
Jay Marshall*
Carlos Muniz
Eric Niesen*
Jack Egbert
R. A. Dickey
Travis Blackley*

Who stays? Who goes? Who cares? Who knows?

[Ceetar]

Probably the first six are marginally safe as long as they don't suck. With the 7th slot being whoever is doing best in Spring, with a weighted average for a lefty that can get Ryan Howard out.(wait, that might be all of them. But I'm sure that they'll try to add a second lefty)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Egbert's been DFAed but I would guess he resurfaces and signs a Minor League deal. He's here only because the Mets are obligated to offer employment to all baseball-playing New Yorkers at some point in their careers.

I'd guess Nieve is more bullpenny than Niese.

I'd love to see them create some payroll room by trading Rodriguez.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Merged.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'd guess Nieve is more bullpenny than Niese.

Nonetheless, I think he currently tops the list of people Jerry Manuel is mumbling about for opening the season as the fifth starter.

[metirish]

No one puts Edgy's thread in a corner.....

[Guest Edgy DC]

Or sends it to a coroner.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

My bad. (I thought there was something here, but did a quick-- and apparently cursory-- scan.)

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Egbert's been DFAed but I would guess he resurfaces and signs a Minor League deal. He's here only because the Mets are obligated to offer employment to all baseball-playing New Yorkers at some point in their careers. I'd guess Nieve is more bullpenny than Niese. I'd love to see them create some payroll room by trading Rodriguez.

It seems Egbert still holds an NRI.

You and I, JCL, have very similar Frankie daydreams. (Is he a fire-breathing unicorn in yours, too?)

[smg58]

The good news is we're not lacking in depth. I don't know what kind of quality we have up top though. I think Parnell will be better with an established role, and K-Rod should hopefully bounce back, but I'm not guaranteeing either. I have no idea what to expect from the Japanese guys or from Escobar.

I don't think it's unreasonable to hope for two or three guys on that long list to step up their game this year, so at this point I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic about the pen.

[Farmer Ted]

Call me crazy, but I think Kelvim is going to come out as the #5 starter when all is said and done. Misch is my sentimental favorite; Figgy gets shipped out with his whiney wife.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Why we love Pedro, and should love him more, courtesy of Pat Andriola over at Amazin' Avenue. Sharp.

Jorge Cantu is a pretty good hitter. In 2009, he hit .289/.345/.443 for a .788 OPS. However, baseball does not require a pitcher to face Jorge Cantu every at-bat. They'll have to face some better players, and more often some worse players, for an overall average opposing batter much worse than Jorge Cantu. Why is this relevant? Because in 2009 Pedro Feliciano did face Jorge Cantu every time he pitched. Of course not literally, but for pitchers with a minimum of fifty innings pitched, Pedro Feliciano faced hitters with an average OPS higher than any other pitcher in baseball (.796, actually higher than Cantu's). And what did Feliciano do to these hitters? He held them to a .231/.288/.394 average. He basically turned Jorge Cantu into a worse version of Omir Santos. While DIPS theory is important, it would only credit Feliciano, as he was not at all benefiting from anything resembling a quality defense. Feliciano's other numbers reflect his dominance in 2009. He had a 3.55 FIP, a 3.05 xFIP, and 3.44 tRA (the lowest of his career), all while facing some of the most stealth competition in baseball. Sure, the batters Feliciano saw were most likely at a disadvantage in terms of handedness, but this is irrelevant. In fact, this is what we should be commending Feliciano for: being able to turn good hitters into bad ones by exploiting weaknesses. What's also important is when Feliciano pitched. He was usually in close games facing the superstar players on the opposing teams (i.e. Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Brian McCann, etc.), giving him a WPA of 1.91, the highest of his career by .7. Here are Feliciano's 2009 splits: Righties: 4.49 xFIP, 5.19 FIP, 1.59 K/BB, 21.8 LD%, 43.6 GB% Lefties: 2.40 xFIP, 2.80 FIP, 6.83 K/BB, 12.3 LD%, 63.2 GB% I also think a fundamental problem with LOOGY analysis is that their value is not properly assessed via WAR thanks to the relatively small amount of innings they pitch. Feliciano was only worth .6 WAR last year (.4 less than Santos), but was clearly more "valuable" than that. While fWAR does take into account leverage index, it's still difficult to buy the final numbers. For a more detailed conversation on that issue, look here. Feliciano's 2009 was great. He got batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (28.9% of the time), turning above average hitters into career minor leaguers at the most important stages of the game. If the Mets are playing more competitive baseball in 2010, maybe his late game excellence will be realized even more.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I was actually thinking of starting a Pedro Feliciano Love Thread this weekend --- a thread in which to express affection for Pedro Felicano, if that's not clear.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I also think a fundamental problem with LOOGY analysis is that their value is not properly assessed via WAR thanks to the relatively small amount of innings they pitch.

Anyhow, this is a frustratingly obvious point, that many stats like WAR --- that turn percentages into runs into wins --- miss. And it's also true of many other late-inning specialists. LOOGys, closers, pinch-hitters, defensive replacements all get short-changed in WAR. WAR is hell.

Francisco Rodriguez had 0.3 WARs for the Mets in 2009. Ramon Castro had 0.5. Yeah, it wasn't a particularly good year for Rodriguez, but nobody would argue that this is seriously reflective of their relative value to the team.

[MFS62]

A few years ago, Pedro pitched about 4 scoreless innings in one game, and afew scoreless innings in another game. I thought it would have been interesting to "stretch him out" to see if he could become a starter. Never happened. Too bad. He gets guys out.

And, I just got around to checking out Saucy Arturo. (Finally noticed him in the 40 man roster thread.)
Nine minor league seasons with an ERA near 5.00?
And they had to add him to the 40 man roster?
I know its an old baseball adage that "lefties develop later".
I'm glad he has options left because it looks like he might develop around the year 2015.
I know. I said I'd be optimistic.
And I still am.
But, .... Arturo Lopez?
I'm glad Pedro Feliciano is here.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Seconded on Lopez. At least with somebody like Marshall, the motion's unusual enough that you can try him out amongst your big-leaguers to see if he could be serviceable, LOOGYwise. (Although even there, they've got a better, younger version at Binghamton already in NRI-less Roy Merritt... and he's got an adorably goofy entrance song to boot.)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Kevin Kernan tweets:

Good news...

#Mets Escobar can grip a baseball 10:25 AM Feb 20th from web

... curious news...

#Mets Update: Sean Green has dropped his arm angle and the Mets expect that to make him more effective about 4 hours ago from web

... and curiouser news, still.

#Mets Update: Manuel is impressed with the kid Mejia and threw him in the mix for the eighth inning role. about 4 hours ago from web

I'm hoping Mejia impresses him less and less as the month wears on.

[Frayed Knot]

#Mets Escobar can grip a baseball

That's kinda nice ... considering that it's part of the job description and all.

#Mets Update: Sean Green has dropped his arm angle and the Mets expect that to make him more effective

Yeah, I had heard that the other day (Ed Coleman I think). Not quite into knuckle-scraping/Chad Bradford territory yet, but definitely lower.

#Mets Update: Manuel is impressed with the kid Mejia and threw him in the mix for the eighth inning role.

That just ain't gonna happen. That's your FK Spring 2010 guarantee right there.
The only time I want to even hear about that is if/when we're fighting for a pennant in September and he's brought up to patch a hole then.

[Valadius]

I only want to see Mejia in a Frankie Rodriguez in 2002 role.

[ashie62]

Maybe Manuel will be gone before he can damage Mejia

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Snooze today sez the Mets will likely ink another bullpen lefty -- Will Ohman or Joe Biemel -- if the price is rite (~$1 millz)