The Future of Murphy (split from 9/16 IGT)

[ashie62]

May be... I think Omar will try to sell it

[Guest Edgy DC]

In my experience, nobody looks so rushed as a rushed power hitter.

[TransMonk]

D. Murph in September 2009:

69 AB, 21 H, 11 R, 8 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 15 RBI, .304/.310/.652/.962

A small sample size in meaningless games (mostly losses), but slightly encouraging.

[Guest Edgy DC]

It certainly complicates matters.

Month	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	76	.324	.373	.426	.800
May	81	.176	.278	.353	.631
June	84	.240	.298	.320	.618
July	94	.250	.323	.393	.715
August	117	.292	.308	.434	.741
September	71	.304	.310	.652	.962

Also notable is that, whatever adjustments he has or hasn't made, he's stopped walking. Maybe HoJo came by his locker and told him, "Like it or not, you're our cleanup hitter --- swing like one."

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Leading the team in home runs, and right behind Wright in RBI, according to Cerrone.

Of course, leading this team in an offensive category isn't all that special, espcially when the number is 11.

The chart is encouraging, though.

[Guest attgig]

the problem with that chart is that it looks similar to last year's september which gave everyone a false hope.

one great month does not a full time 1bman make....

[TransMonk]

They're better than last September's numbers. His August of 2008 was the eye opening month.

But, you're right...one great month does not a full time 1B make. I'm just hoping it is a sign of things to come rather than a fluke.

Way too early to tell.

[Frayed Knot]

Actually, his Aug/Sept this year looks very different from what he did last year. As pointed out above, virtually no walks these days even though that was one of his most obvious strengths last season.

Walk rate 2008: .084 {.397 OBA on a BA of .313}
Walk rate 2009: .048 {.314 OBA on a BA of .266}
but then look at his track record from Aug-Sept of '09: a walk rate of approx .011, or 4 BBs in 188 plate appearances
(ML average is about .070)

And, yeah, this recent surge and the real low walks is from a small sample size - hell, his whole career is - but that's kind of the point; I don't think we know what we really have in Daniel Murphy yet.
He's a guy with one full season in the minors plus and parts of two others (less than 1,000 ABs) and was the 3rd position player from his draft year to reach the majors - something that's certainly not common for a 13th round pick.

[MFS62]

On last night's radio post-game show, it was mentioned that Murphy has more extra base hits this September than any other National League hitter.

I can live with that at the possible expense of OBP. And there's no guarantee that he can't go back to the patient approach he exhibited last year.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Sure, but you can't take the best of him during one (short) period and add it to the best of him during another span and say, hey look, 'he's a high-OBP guy with pop' when he's really only been each of those things briefly and not at the same time.

Like I said earlier, I really don't think anyone knows what exactly Murphy is yet or what he's destined to be.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

I'm not overly concerned by the drop in Murphy's walk-rate. It's probably a combination of pitchers figuring out where to pitch for him and (as others pointed out) his position in the line-up . You can argue that he may have seen better pitches to hit last season (yet was still able to amass a higher walk-rate) but that's counterbalanced by that the idea that pitchers may have learned where to pitch to him within the strike zone. It could also be attributable to batting with more runners on-base this season. In any case, he was never a prolific walker in the minors and at the risk of sounding like Joe Morgan, the onus is now on him to readjust.

[metirish]

NY Times article on Murphy

Murphy nearing a Mets record