In Search of .... Pennant Races (NL Version)

[Fman99]

I am rooting against the NL East teams and the MFYs at this point.

And the Cardinals, still.

So that leaves Boston, Detroit/Minnesota, the Angels, and the Rockies. I'm lukewarm on the Dodgers but I'd root for them to pound Philly, Atlanta, Florida or the MFYs at this point if I had to.

[Frayed Knot]

* WC leader Rockies get a walk-off win via a 9th inning Sac Fly from Yorvit Torrealba

* Giants (with Lincecum going) get 2-hit by Zambrano and the Cubs and fall 5 games back in the chase

* Braves keep pace by beating Nats (still 3.5 back) but he Marlins (heh, heh) fall back to 5

* All the division leaders lost so got no closer to clinching (not that any of them are still in doubt)

[G-Fafif]

Braves win again. Occurs to me they haven't been in anything resembling a playoff race since 1993. They were never really pushed during all their N.L. East titles, not to the extent that they were ever in danger of not making it to postseason.

Maybe they can still get McGriff.

[Guest Edgy DC]

You don't think they were pushed in 2001? Some Armando hater you are!

[Benjamin Grimm]

2001 wasn't a title year. The Mets were pushed in 2007 and 2008, too.

[Frayed Knot]

Rockies lose to Cards - which means Cards clinch Central - but more importantly tightens up the WC race just a bit.
- Braves win and are now just 2.5 back.
- Marlins win (or so I heard) 4.0 back
- Giants lose making them 5.0 back and most likely dead.


Meanwhile Phils get no closer to clinching even though that's probably a done deal (still lead by 5.0 games).
But mgr Charlie Manual said publicly that they're going to try others out in late innings while Madson - and especially Lidge - falter. So they brought Tyler Walker into a tie game in the 9th in Milwaukee last night and he promptly went: 1B (Counsell) & HR (Braun) for the walk-off loss.


Dodgers clinched a playoff spot but not yet the West (6.0 games up).

[Frayed Knot]

Rox & Braves are both 5 out of their division races (in it but not in it) but the Rox have a 2.5 game lead for the WC.
Biggest Braves advantage is that they get the Nationals 4 more times still (starting Thursday) having just come off sweeping them this weekend. Before that they get the Marlins for 3 starting tonight.

Colorado is off today. They have 3 with the Brewers and then 3 in LA to close it out.
Dodgers lost a tough one yesterday. They broke a 2-2 tie with 3 in top 9th in Pittsburgh. They then handed the ball over to big boy Broxton who promptly gave up 4. His defense didn't help him but still. Winning runs scored on a bases-clearing single by Lastings Milledge that squirted through the legs of Andre Ethier out in RF


Phils almost blew a 6-0 lead against the Brews. It was a 1-run game by the 9th and they turned to Madson as the closer. He saved it despite a 1-out double.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Phillies' NHOP*, in case you're wondering, is .250.


*Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage

[Frayed Knot]

*Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage[/quote:1fyy28qq]

And that's what again? ... the odds that enough of the remaining games will go right/wrong for the Phils to miss out on the playoff (or just the division)?




Dodgers magic number for the West is 1 (already sewed up a playoff spot).
But it's been that way for two days now and they got thumped by the Pirates yesterday after blowing a late lead on Sunday.



Braves win their 7th straight and #15 of their last 17 to pull within 2.0 of the WC-leading Rox.
Still 4 back in the East, largely because both of those recent losses were to Philly (lost 2 of 3).

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Phillies have a magic number of 3, and there are 12 remaining games (6 for Phillies, 6 for Braves). So they need 3 of 12 games to go their way, which gives them an NHOP of .250.

If the Phils lose tonight and the Braves win, the NHOP would then be 3 of 10, or .300.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

The Braves making the playoffs in any capacity will be confirmation that I need to find something else to preoccupy my time with this October, other than watching baseball.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the Braves cause the Phillies to miss the playoffs, I'll be absolutely delighted.

I won't be watching October baseball one way or the other. That was pretty much decided over two months ago.

[Fman99]

Phillies have clinched at least a tie in the NL east, up 5 on Atlanta with 6 games left.

Wild Card -- Rockies win, Atlanta loses. Rockies up 3 with 5 left to play each.

Go Rockies. One less odious team in the playoffs if they can knock Atlanta out. Bad enough that the Phillies, Dodgers, Cards and MFYs are all in already.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Can I add the Red Sox to your list of odious teams?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm amazed at how disconnected I am from all this. I watched a little of the Mets game last night, and they gave a "pennant race update" of the Rockies/Brewers game, and I didn't know which team was in the race, or why the game was significant.

I also have no idea who's in first place in the AL West or Central. Other than in the NL East, I don't even look at the standings anymore!

I'm really becoming a fallen fan.

[metirish]

I'm amazed at how disconnected I am from all this. I watched a little of the Mets game last night, and they gave a "pennant race update" of the Rockies/Brewers game, and I didn't know which team was in the race, or why the game was significant.

I also have no idea who's in first place in the AL West or Central. Other than in the NL East, I don't even look at the standings anymore!

I'm really becoming a fallen fan.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Most likely no.

I haven't watched a non-Mets postseason game since I watched one game of the 2005 World Series.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

I also have no idea who's in first place in the AL West or Central. Other than in the NL East, I don't even look at the standings anymore!

I'm really becoming a fallen fan.

[Frayed Knot]

The Rockies are really leading a charmed life. There seem to have been a bunch of games down the stretch here where they've played like shit and still managed to win. Last night:
- Their closer blows a 3-run lead in the 9th last night (giving up a HR to Jason Kendall of all people)
- They get their best pinch-runner on in the 10th and he promptly gets picked off
- In the 11th, Chris Ianetta looks like he's K'd on a 2-strike half-swing but gets the benefit of the call ... and then hits a walk-off 2R-HR on the next pitch

[Frayed Knot]

Another Rox win coupled with a Braves loss and yet another Dodger loss (that's 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 all to Pitt & SD) makes the NL West race the last best chance for a fight to the finish, made even more possible by the fact that LA & Colorado finish the season with three games against each other.

Rox hosting Milwaukee this after noon are 2.5 games behind LA. But they need a win today and then a sweep over the weekend to win the division.
Losing today and sweeping to force a tie isn't really a tie at all because both teams are going to make the playoffs in that scenario and the Dodgers would win the division based on head-to-head.

Braves are 4.0 out of the WC and have a 'tragic number' of one.

Phils have a 2-game lead on StL for the "right" to face the WC team instead of the West winner in round one.

[Frayed Knot]

The NL playoff teams are set with the Rox win this afternoon, clinching at least a WC and eliminating the Braves.
The only questions remaining are the West winner/Wild Card and the exact order of the first round.

Rox go to LA for 3 games to close out the season.
If Rox sweep they'll be the West winner and Dodgers the Wild card. Anything else and it's Dodgers = 1st; Rox = WC

WC probably faces the Phils 1st round while StL gets the West winner

[Frayed Knot]

Rockies get a 10K in 6 IP performance out of Usbaldo Jimenez and a 7th inning 2R HR from Troy Tulowitski to climb within one game of the Dodgers.
Still need to sweep the remaining two in order to win the division and get the (theoretically) worse team in the first round out of Stl & Phil (Phils are one-game better right now)



And not that it's pennant related, but Adam Wainwright was going for his 20th win last night and his Cards jumped out to a 6-0 lead. Still down 6-1 heading into the 7th, the Brewers scored 11 unanswered runs and won 12-6.
So between that and the egg CC Sabathia laid last night in Tampa: 9 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits & 5 walks in 2.2 IP, there will be no 20-game winners in MLB this season. That's something like only the 3rd time that's happened.

[metirish]

It's been some ride for Rockies fans the past few years .

[metirish]

Rockies @ Dogers on MLB Network tonight at 10 , very cool

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Rockies @ Dogers on MLB Network tonight at 10 , very cool[/quote:350twexa]

+ Vin! Will watch a few innings...

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Wow, great catch by Gonzalez to rob Manny. No score in the 2nd.

[Fman99]

Can I add the Red Sox to your list of odious teams?[/quote:2u3rtwza]

Not on my list... the Red Sox fans I know don't take it to an annoying extreme. It helps to be 300 miles away from Boston.

I'd root for them over the MFYs or the Phillies in a second.

But they can stay on your list Dee.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Dodgers win. I stayed up to watch most of it; De La Rosa of the Rockies was matching Kershaw with zeros but left with a sudden groin injury in the 4th, the Dodgers eventually got to the Rockies bullpen late, then I fell asleep. 5-0 final.

The Rockies of course are in, but now they may have to face Philly without De La Rosa who's gone 16-3 since an 0-6 start.