IGT Marlins @ Mets, 04/28/09

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy DC wrote: (1) It's hard to draw any conclusion from that sample size. I think it's ideal to have a pitcher have his worst inning before being lifted.

But what if a pitcher's worst inning is the one where he gives up six runs? A pitcher might lose effectiveness during his start gradually, or all at once. How do you know that Livan wouldn't have imploded had he been left in?

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't know that or claim to know that.

Nothing I've written suggests I claim to know that. Though I feel certain Manuel would have lifted him before allowing that to happen. As it is, a bunt single and a rolling groundout indicated no signs of an implosion.

When your third reliever, on the other hand, is on a track to give up six runs, it's then harder to lift him because you're already three pitchers deep into the pen.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

To me the bullpen mgt isn't necessarily about pulling Livan or anyone else when they did, but having (perhaps) compromised the guys he turned to by having used them the night before with a 6-run lead.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy DC wrote: Nothing I've written suggests I claim to know that. Though I feel certain Manuel would have lifted him before allowing that to happen. As it is, a bunt single and a rolling groundout indicated no signs of an implosion.

I agree with you on that. But no manager should be waiting for the implosion to happen before relieving the starter. The trick is to anticipate the meltdown before it ever happens. Things didn't work out for the Mets yesterday. That's all it is.

Edgy DC wrote: When your third reliever, on the other hand, is on a track to give up six runs, it's then harder to lift him because you're already three pitchers deep into the pen.

Isn't this hindisght? Green was "on track"? Are you saying that everyone but Manuel knew that Green was going to have a terrible inning before it ever happened?

[Guest Edgy DC]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: ="Edgy DC"] Nothing I've written suggests I claim to know that. Though I feel certain Manuel would have lifted him before allowing that to happen. As it is, a bunt single and a rolling groundout indicated no signs of an implosion. I agree with you on that. But no manager should be waiting for the implosion to happen before relieving the starter. The trick is to anticipate the meltdown before it ever happens. Things didn't work out for the Mets yesterday. That's all it is.

No, there's something between a meltdown and the innocuous events of Livan Hernandez's sixth inning. It's called tiriing, flagging, struggling. It includes a walk or two, a hit or two, a hit batsman, dropping velocity, actually yielding something more than a bunt single and an infield out that doesn't even advance the runner.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: ="Edgy DC"]When your third reliever, on the other hand, is on a track to give up six runs, it's then harder to lift him because you're already three pitchers deep into the pen. Isn't this hindisght? Green was "on track"? Are you saying that everyone but Manuel knew that Green was going to have a terrible inning before it ever happened?

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying what I'm saying, repeatedly and clearly. That each successive pitcher you need to get through the day (1) increases your chance that one of them will not have it, (2) decreases the options you have available to you as a plan B if/when one of them doesn't have it, and (3) limits their availablity for another day, so it behooves one to use as few pitchers as necessary.

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: The Mets offense is second in the NL in runs scored, tied with Philly; the Mets have outscored first place Fla. so far this season. The Cubs are the only NL team to have outscored the Mets.

This post was in my head all day long ever since I wrote it because, having watched almost every Met inning of this season, I couldn't reconcile the team I was watching with their outstanding run production. So I checked the team totals again, and I realized that I had made a mistake: I was looking at last season's NL run totals. The 799 runs scored by the Mets should have tipped me off. This year's Mets rank 7th out of 16 NL teams