Livan Looking to Lock, IGT vs. Atlanta, 3/18

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm reminded of the outstanding spring David Cone had in 2003.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Nymr83 wrote: I don't care how well he's pitched in the spring, i'm not comfortable with a "34" (haha) year-old pitcher who had ERAs of 6.05, 4.93 and 4.83 along with WHIPs of 1.67!, 1.60, and 1.50 the past 3 years. 3 years and 600 innings have shown he's got nothing left, a few spring training innings wont change my mind. I think a merry-go-round of young guys (Niese, Knight, Parnell, whatever) would produce better results. Even if these guys failed we'd at least be getting them quality experience for the future (or determining that their future isn't here.)

A) Knight is 32 years old, and, with an ERA+ of 81 last year, is the very definition of "replacement level." (At least Figs is a local guy.)

If part of the issue is getting Niese to build confidence and precision, how would getting shelled every other time out-- and getting reamed out for it in the press for the two days following-- help with getting him to trust his stuff and not overthrow (his primary issue last year)? (NOTE: The ONLY case in which I believe in the "handling New York" thing is when a player is relatively unformed.)

C) Parnell, organizationally, is slotted for the bullpen. The matter at issue with him is that he's still learning to hold onto command while going "all-out" for 30 pitches at a time. (He typically throws his fastball at 90-92 when starting; he ramps it up to 96-plus when he rears back and THROWS.) Slotting him into a spot-start/5th-starter role kinda goes against what management has planned for him, then, no?

C) Granted, last year was a washout. But an ERA of 4.83-4.93 and ERA+ of slightly-worse-than-league-average (say, 92-95)-- highly-doable goals, no?-- would put him about a half-run ahead of the spot's performance last year (5.31 cumulative, between Pedro and the sidekicks), and better than a serviceable Trachsel in 2006 (4.97, 88).

[metirish]

Not to be taken lightly is the issue of who among this group can handle the unique pressure of playing in NY . I do believe Livan can handle that.

SC turned all the way up to 11

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Har.

[nymr83]

="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr"] A) Knight is 32 years old, and, with an ERA+ of 81 last year, is the very definition of "replacement level." (At least Figs is a local guy.)

that was over TWELVE INNINGS
he had a 2.28 with a sub-1 whip in 43 innings at AAA, he might not be anyone idea of great but he has a better chance than livan to give you something

] If part of the issue is getting Niese to build confidence and precision, how would getting shelled every other time out-- and getting reamed out for it in the press for the two days following-- help with getting him to trust his stuff and not overthrow (his primary issue last year)? (NOTE: The ONLY case in which I believe in the "handling New York" thing is when a player is relatively unformed.)

Getting shelled worked to get Pelfrey the necessary experience. If you think Niese has what it takes to be a major leaguer then the experence, even if he gets shelled, should be good for him. and he likely won't be worse than livan.

]C) Parnell, organizationally, is slotted for the bullpen. The matter at issue with him is that he's still learning to hold onto command while going "all-out" for 30 pitches at a time. (He typically throws his fastball at 90-92 when starting; he ramps it up to 96-plus when he rears back and THROWS.) Slotting him into a spot-start/5th-starter role kinda goes against what management has planned for him, then, no?

ah so THE plan is to make him a reliever, how dare we deviate from THE plan if it helps the team win.

]C) Granted, last year was a washout. But an ERA of 4.83-4.93 and ERA+ of slightly-worse-than-league-average (say, 92-95)-- highly-doable goals, no?-- would put him about a half-run ahead of the spot's performance last year (5.31 cumulative, between Pedro and the sidekicks), and better than a serviceable Trachsel in 2006 (4.97, 88).

so your goal, and i think the best possible scenario, from livan is an ERA+ around 90. nevermind those other terrible scenarios (last year or worse), i wouldnt want to pencil a guy in whose best possible year is going to be below average.
if you have to turn to Livan (or someone like him, such guys are always out there) inJue when 3 starters go down thats just the way it goes, but i wouldnt want to count on him to be part of the opening rotation when there are better options.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, if Livan doesn't get it done he won't be the fifth starter for long. (Again, look at David Cone in 2003.)

It's not worth getting worked up over. If, in May, Livan's getting knocked around and Niese is throwing shutouts for Buffalo, they'll make the change.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm going to state it again (and again) but an ERA+ of 100 is not an average performer, because the best performers get more innings.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

="Nymr83"] ="LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr"] A) Knight is 32 years old, and, with an ERA+ of 81 last year, is the very definition of "replacement level." (At least Figs is a local guy.) that was over TWELVE INNINGS he had a 2.28 with a sub-1 whip in 43 innings at AAA, he might not be anyone idea of great but he has a better chance than livan to give you something

Admittedly, not the best stat choice-- I could have gone with quoting his career ERA+ of 51, but didn't think that would paint a fair picture of current-day Brandon Knight. But, yeah, 43 innings isn't much of a sample size, either.

I still stand by my point, though-- to me, he's Nelson Figueroa with less of a story, and less melanin. What about Knight's toolset or ML performance makes you think that he has a better chance of a breakout at 32 over someone who has performed at well-above-replacement-level for extended periods of time in the not-too-distant past? (I'm not asking sarcastically... I really do want to know, having seen Knight's starts last year and not having coming away impressed by either the results or the process.)

] ] If part of the issue is getting Niese to build confidence and precision, how would getting shelled every other time out-- and getting reamed out for it in the press for the two days following-- help with getting him to trust his stuff and not overthrow (his primary issue last year)? (NOTE: The ONLY case in which I believe in the "handling New York" thing is when a player is relatively unformed.) Getting shelled worked to get Pelfrey the necessary experience. If you think Niese has what it takes to be a major leaguer then the experence, even if he gets shelled, should be good for him. and he likely won't be worse than livan.

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Just 'cause Pelf got shelled and came out the other end doesn't mean that shelling MADE him. (BTW... I'm not sure I made my point clearly. I'm not arguing for sparing Niese from a shelling. I am arguing that if he's got a little more refining to do-- which most parties who've seen him agree on-- it's better if it occurs in a less-pressured environment than, say, a tabloid-loaded season following two consecutive pennant-race flops in the biggest city on earth. That sort of pressure tends to reinforce bad habits, rewarding/emphasizing short-term-results-by-any-means rather than development of and trust in one's skill set. But I'm not a professional pitching coach-- I may be wrong.)

That said... "likely won't be worse than Livan?" If you want to use Pelf-- a more highly-touted prospect, making his debut in similar circumstances as Niese would face-- as a test balloon...

Pelf's number's during OTJ training in 2006/07:

2006-- 5.48 ERA/1.73 WHIP/79 ERA+
2007-- 5.57 ERA/1.71 WHIP/76 ERA+

Granted, they're not the same pitcher, and the same results are far from guaranteed. That said, Niese's mistakes tend to fly OUT of parks, not around them. If he's got a Pelf-type learning curve, his line will look much uglier.

(MIND you... I'm not arguing against using Niese this year. I'm just arguing for weighing Livan's likely contributions properly. Speaking of which...)

] ]C) Granted, last year was a washout. But an ERA of 4.83-4.93 and ERA+ of slightly-worse-than-league-average (say, 92-95)-- highly-doable goals, no?-- would put him about a half-run ahead of the spot's performance last year (5.31 cumulative, between Pedro and the sidekicks), and better than a serviceable Trachsel in 2006 (4.97, 88). so your goal, and i think the best possible scenario, from livan is an ERA+ around 90. nevermind those other terrible scenarios (last year or worse), i wouldnt want to pencil a guy in whose best possible year is going to be below average. if you have to turn to Livan (or someone like him, such guys are always out there) inJue when 3 starters go down thats just the way it goes, but i wouldnt want to count on him to be part of the opening rotation when there are better options.

When I meant "doable goal," I meant that this kind of result is a slightly-optimistic likely result-- almost right in the middle of Livan's bell curve of possible results for this year, given a substantial number of starts. I think that, given his history, that's as fair as assumptions get.

His ceiling going forward is not as high as Niese's, in all likelihood. But his ceiling for this year-- I'll go out on a limb and guess, something like a high-3s/low-4s ERA, with a disproportionately high WHIP (1.5?), and 15-20 QS out of 25 (a good number likely at the low-quality end of qualifying QSes)-- is more likely than the same sort of achievement out of a man with 2 career ML starts.

] ]D) Parnell, organizationally, is slotted for the bullpen. The matter at issue with him is that he's still learning to hold onto command while going "all-out" for 30 pitches at a time. (He typically throws his fastball at 90-92 when starting; he ramps it up to 96-plus when he rears back and THROWS.) Slotting him into a spot-start/5th-starter role kinda goes against what management has planned for him, then, no? ah so THE plan is to make him a reliever, how dare we deviate from THE plan if it helps the team win.

I'm addressing the situation as it is, as opposed to how it should be. The team seems to like him to relieve, and not to start... and judging from his numbers as a starter in the minors (meh) and his tool profile (plus fastball, plus slider with bite... with that fastball only touching "overwhelming" when he relieves-- he's only thrown 90-92 when starting).

[nymr83]

]When I meant "doable goal," I meant that this kind of result is a slightly-optimistic likely result-- almost right in the middle of Livan's bell curve of possible results for this year, given a substantial number of starts. I think that, given his history, that's as fair as assumptions get.

well i think thats where we disagree, i think the best numbers a 25 year old pitcher has put up in the last 3 years are his realistic ceiling going forward. there will always be excptions, but theres no reason to think he'll be one. i'd rather throw the young guy out there.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It goes without saying that I hope very much that YOU'RE saying "I told you so"-- in a good way-- by June, right?