How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Could the Yankees have dropped all that change for very little improvement? I was thinking of their shopping spree yesterday evening, and it strikes me that 2009 for them could look a lot like 2008 --- needing their young pitchers to live up to the hype if the team is going to progress.

Look at their big ticket items compared to who they're replacing.

Nu Yank	WS	Old Yank	WS
Sabathia	17.5	Mussina	18
Burnett	14.2	Pettitte	11
Teixiera	15	Giambi	16
Total	46.7	Total	45

Yeah, they get younger in these slots, so these guys are a better bet to sustain their show long-term, but from year to year, the Yankees appear to have moved only incrementally. (I'm actually bumping up Sabathia's WS total by 1.5, to make up for the -1.5 he got as a hitter last season.)

So, yeah, they're depending on the younger players to break through. And that realistically could happen. Meantime, Jeter, Rodriguez, Damon, Matsui, Posada, Rivera --- these guys aren't looking to get more mature, but to stave off maturing any more than they already have, and some of them will fail.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yes, they still look like a third-place team to me. The one positive is that Wang is returning over the worse of the back-end guys but still, they have a way to go.

The thing about the MFYs isn't really that they broke the bank and spent like crazy, it's that they had so many holes to fill. To to their credit they filled 'em with the best guys they could, and that cost 'em. But I don't know how dramatically they will improve, and things sure could wrong.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Oops, yeah, Wang.

But even he gave them a good half year last year, and never even got back to the point of getting a single rehab start, so who knows what they're getting there in 2009.

[Frayed Knot]

Also factor in whether Nady/Swisher adequately replaces Abreu.

In addition to Wang they also get back Posada - providing he can still catch regularly of course. That was a huge blow as he missed virtually the entire year after having a career season in 2007.
Also were without Matsui for much of the time although he's getting to be increasingly mediocre as is probably nothing more than a 4x/week DH this year.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

And Cano will likely have a much better year than he did last year.

I think they look like the best team in the division, depending on just how good David Price is this year (and if Reid Brignac plays and can hit)

[batmagadanleadoff]

="John Cougar Lunchbucket":1zich3tm]Yes, they still look like a third-place team to me. The one positive is that Wang is returning over the worse of the back-end guys but still, they have a way to go. The thing about the MFYs isn't really that they broke the bank and spent like crazy, it's that they had so many holes to fill. To to their credit they filled 'em with the best guys they could, and that cost 'em. But I don't know how dramatically they will improve, and things sure could wrong.[/quote:1zich3tm] I pretty much agree with your point. But "third-place team" is relative in that division. A team could win 90 games and finish third in the AL East. Last year's MFY's (89-73) would've finished in third even if they'd won 94 games. Tough division.

smg58 Dec 31 2008 09:27 AM

How does Moose get more win shares than Sabathia, and Giambi get more win shares than Teixeira? They do have plenty of question marks in the rotation. They'll be lucky to get 30+ starts from both Wang and Burnett, and Joba's no safe bet either. Hughes and Kennedy were both rushed through the system, and at least one of them will do fine this year, so they'll be better at the last spot than people realize. But the 2 through 4 spots could really come back to get them. The offense will be what it usually is. Jeter and Cano will probably be a little better, Damon probably a little worse. Posada and Swisher are the question marks, along with Matsui because of his health. On paper, they're the team to beat IF everybody stays on the field, but that's a really huge if.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 31 2008 09:29 AM

I just like calling them a third-place team.

batmagadanleadoff Dec 31 2008 09:37 AM

I see what you mean.

metsmarathon Dec 31 2008 09:40 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten?

Nu Yank WARP3 Old Yank WARP3 Sabathia 11.1 Mussina 8.6 Burnett 6.2 Pettitte 5.7 Teixiera 10.8 Giambi 4.5 Total 28.1 Total 18.8 um, i show about a 9 win improvement... how the hell does giambi have a better ws than teixeira? teix is a better hitter and fielder!

Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 09:45 AM

Well, I used win shares. What are you gonna do? I left it as an open question because I sure don't know how to handle those things.

metsmarathon Dec 31 2008 09:45 AM

aha! teix had 15 ws with laa, plus 15 ws with atlanta. similarly, sabathia had 16 ws with milwaukee, plus 9 ws with cleveland. so we can add 25 ws to the yankees' projection. plus the 2 ws we've already identified, and they're looking at a 27 ws improvement already, or about 9 wins. boo. (hardball times doesn't show combined stats, just what the players did for each team. i hate when sites do that.)

batmagadanleadoff Dec 31 2008 09:47 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten?

="metsmarathon":2t6jws0j] Nu Yank WARP3 Old Yank WARP3 Sabathia 11.1 Mussina 8.6 Burnett 6.2 Pettitte 5.7 Teixiera 10.8 Giambi 4.5 Total 28.1 Total 18.8 um, i show about a 9 win improvement... how the hell does giambi have a better ws than teixeira? teix is a better hitter and fielder![/quote:2t6jws0j] Because a player's Win Shares are limited by the number of games his team won. Last year, the Yankees (89) won 10 more games than the Rangers (79). The comparison is flawed. Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 09:53 AM Ya think?! metsmarathon Dec 31 2008 09:58 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten? ="batmagadanleadoff":2ez8sxsw]Because a player's Win Shares are limited by the number of games his team won. Last year, the Yankees (89) won 10 more games than the Rangers (79). The comparison is flawed.[/quote:2ez8sxsw] that complaint is really only valid when a team's actual win/loss record significantly deviates from their pythagorean expected win/loss. and even in the case of an extreme deviation, like, if a team won 8 more games than you'd expect, then you'd only have a 5% error. for a player with 10 WS, that'd be only 1/2 a WS - not nearly enough to invalidate such a comparison as was attempted here. also, for the record, texas outperformed their pythagorean expectation by 3 wins, while the yankees outperformed theirs by 2 wins. metsmarathon Dec 31 2008 10:03 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten? fixed... Nu Yank WS Old Yank WS Sabathia 26.5 Mussina 18 Burnett 14.2 Pettitte 11 Teixiera 30 Giambi 16 Total 70.7 Total 45 Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 10:05 AM Ah, well, I didn't, um, include, his, uh, Atlanta perf... Hey, look, it's that Riddler Chick from the other thread! batmagadanleadoff Dec 31 2008 10:10 AM Okay. And nice catch for noticing that Teixeira's stats were split between his two teams. Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 10:15 AM I fumbled Sabathia too. The difference is a half a win improvement vs., um, 10. Glad I'm not the Mets GM. attgig Dec 31 2008 10:23 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten? ="metsmarathon":2tqcjxhq]how the hell does giambi have a better ws than teixeira? teix is a better hitter and fielder![/quote:2tqcjxhq] how did it take almost 10 posts for someone to see that as a fishy stat?

[smg58]

How does Moose get more win shares than Sabathia, and Giambi get more win shares than Teixeira?

They do have plenty of question marks in the rotation. They'll be lucky to get 30+ starts from both Wang and Burnett, and Joba's no safe bet either. Hughes and Kennedy were both rushed through the system, and at least one of them will do fine this year, so they'll be better at the last spot than people realize. But the 2 through 4 spots could really come back to get them.

The offense will be what it usually is. Jeter and Cano will probably be a little better, Damon probably a little worse. Posada and Swisher are the question marks, along with Matsui because of his health.

On paper, they're the team to beat IF everybody stays on the field, but that's a really huge if.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I just like calling them a third-place team.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I see what you mean.

[metsmarathon]

Nu Yank	WARP3	Old Yank	WARP3
Sabathia	11.1	Mussina	8.6
Burnett	6.2	Pettitte	5.7
Teixiera	10.8	Giambi	4.5
Total	28.1	Total	18.8

um, i show about a 9 win improvement...

how the hell does giambi have a better ws than teixeira? teix is a better hitter and fielder!

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, I used win shares. What are you gonna do? I left it as an open question because I sure don't know how to handle those things.

[metsmarathon]

aha! teix had 15 ws with laa, plus 15 ws with atlanta.

similarly, sabathia had 16 ws with milwaukee, plus 9 ws with cleveland.

so we can add 25 ws to the yankees' projection. plus the 2 ws we've already identified, and they're looking at a 27 ws improvement already, or about 9 wins.

boo.

(hardball times doesn't show combined stats, just what the players did for each team. i hate when sites do that.)

[batmagadanleadoff]

="metsmarathon":2t6jws0j] Nu Yank WARP3 Old Yank WARP3 Sabathia 11.1 Mussina 8.6 Burnett 6.2 Pettitte 5.7 Teixiera 10.8 Giambi 4.5 Total 28.1 Total 18.8 um, i show about a 9 win improvement... how the hell does giambi have a better ws than teixeira? teix is a better hitter and fielder![/quote:2t6jws0j] Because a player's Win Shares are limited by the number of games his team won. Last year, the Yankees (89) won 10 more games than the Rangers (79). The comparison is flawed.

Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 09:53 AM

Ya think?!

metsmarathon Dec 31 2008 09:58 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten?

="batmagadanleadoff":2ez8sxsw]Because a player's Win Shares are limited by the number of games his team won. Last year, the Yankees (89) won 10 more games than the Rangers (79). The comparison is flawed.[/quote:2ez8sxsw] that complaint is really only valid when a team's actual win/loss record significantly deviates from their pythagorean expected win/loss. and even in the case of an extreme deviation, like, if a team won 8 more games than you'd expect, then you'd only have a 5% error. for a player with 10 WS, that'd be only 1/2 a WS - not nearly enough to invalidate such a comparison as was attempted here. also, for the record, texas outperformed their pythagorean expectation by 3 wins, while the yankees outperformed theirs by 2 wins. metsmarathon Dec 31 2008 10:03 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten? fixed... Nu Yank WS Old Yank WS Sabathia 26.5 Mussina 18 Burnett 14.2 Pettitte 11 Teixiera 30 Giambi 16 Total 70.7 Total 45 Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 10:05 AM Ah, well, I didn't, um, include, his, uh, Atlanta perf... Hey, look, it's that Riddler Chick from the other thread! batmagadanleadoff Dec 31 2008 10:10 AM Okay. And nice catch for noticing that Teixeira's stats were split between his two teams. Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 10:15 AM I fumbled Sabathia too. The difference is a half a win improvement vs., um, 10. Glad I'm not the Mets GM. attgig Dec 31 2008 10:23 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten? ="metsmarathon":2tqcjxhq]how the hell does giambi have a better ws than teixeira? teix is a better hitter and fielder![/quote:2tqcjxhq] how did it take almost 10 posts for someone to see that as a fishy stat?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Ya think?!

[metsmarathon]

="batmagadanleadoff":2ez8sxsw]Because a player's Win Shares are limited by the number of games his team won. Last year, the Yankees (89) won 10 more games than the Rangers (79). The comparison is flawed.[/quote:2ez8sxsw] that complaint is really only valid when a team's actual win/loss record significantly deviates from their pythagorean expected win/loss. and even in the case of an extreme deviation, like, if a team won 8 more games than you'd expect, then you'd only have a 5% error. for a player with 10 WS, that'd be only 1/2 a WS - not nearly enough to invalidate such a comparison as was attempted here. also, for the record, texas outperformed their pythagorean expectation by 3 wins, while the yankees outperformed theirs by 2 wins.

metsmarathon Dec 31 2008 10:03 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten?

fixed... Nu Yank WS Old Yank WS Sabathia 26.5 Mussina 18 Burnett 14.2 Pettitte 11 Teixiera 30 Giambi 16 Total 70.7 Total 45

Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 10:05 AM

Ah, well, I didn't, um, include, his, uh, Atlanta perf... Hey, look, it's that Riddler Chick from the other thread!

batmagadanleadoff Dec 31 2008 10:10 AM

Okay. And nice catch for noticing that Teixeira's stats were split between his two teams.

Edgy DC Dec 31 2008 10:15 AM

I fumbled Sabathia too. The difference is a half a win improvement vs., um, 10. Glad I'm not the Mets GM.

attgig Dec 31 2008 10:23 AM Re: How Much Better Could They Really Have Gotten?

="metsmarathon":2tqcjxhq]how the hell does giambi have a better ws than teixeira? teix is a better hitter and fielder![/quote:2tqcjxhq] how did it take almost 10 posts for someone to see that as a fishy stat?

[metsmarathon]

fixed...

Nu Yank	WS	Old Yank	WS
Sabathia	26.5	Mussina	18
Burnett	14.2	Pettitte	11
Teixiera	30	Giambi	16
Total	70.7	Total	45

[Guest Edgy DC]

Ah, well, I didn't, um, include, his, uh, Atlanta perf...

Hey, look, it's that Riddler Chick from the other thread!

[batmagadanleadoff]

Okay. And nice catch for noticing that Teixeira's stats were split between his two teams.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I fumbled Sabathia too.

The difference is a half a win improvement vs., um, 10. Glad I'm not the Mets GM.

[Guest attgig]

="metsmarathon":2tqcjxhq]how the hell does giambi have a better ws than teixeira? teix is a better hitter and fielder![/quote:2tqcjxhq] how did it take almost 10 posts for someone to see that as a fishy stat?