As bad as the pen's been ...

[Frayed Knot]

Met OPS by inning:

1st - .865
2nd - .727
3rd - .835
4th - .772
5th - .728
6th - .829
7th - .691
8th - .685
9th - .628

I mean you probably already knew and/or suspected this, but the ineptness of the bats just gives the sucky pen that much less of a margin for error.

[Elster88]

That's crazy. Where'd you get those stats?

[nymr83]

runs are runs though, when the offense scores it scores and the pitching staff needs to do its job. what's the difference if the mets score 5 in the first or break a scoreless tie with 5 in the 7th? if anything i'd rather score early, chase the starter, and tire out their pen.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He made them up obviouisly. The offense has "done its job."

[Guest AG/DC]

Nymr83 wrote: runs are runs though, when the offense scores it scores and the pitching staff needs to do its job. what's the difference if the mets score 5 in the first or break a scoreless tie with 5 in the 7th? if anything i'd rather score early, chase the starter, and tire out their pen.

Cold comfort. Everybody got to do more and keep doing more.

If we win by being a team that needs to score a lot and put the game out fo the bullpen's reach, so be it.

[nymr83]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: He made them up obviouisly. The offense has "done its job."

the offense has done it's job, which is to score runs.

[Elster88]

Sarcasm aside aren't the Mets third in the NL in runs scored?

[Frayed Knot]

Elster88 wrote: That's crazy. Where'd you get those stats?

Baseball-Reference.com has everything if you look long enough.

]runs are runs though, when the offense scores it scores and the pitching staff needs to do its job.

Sure, but when they flash up those "run differential" stats -- the one where we're plus a million in the first 3 innings and minus 600,000 in the last three -- your first reaction is; 'Man the pen suxx!' ... which it certainly does. But also the offense has been so lousy late in games that we'd be minus in the late innings even if the pen didn't suck. IOW, virtually any mistakes by the pen are killers because they're never covered.

[Guest AG/DC]

And the offense that fails in the last third of the game can't attributed to different personnel.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Even though the bench sucks ass.

[Elster88]

AG/DC wrote: And the offense that fails in the last third of the game can't attributed to different personnel.

Pinch hitters maybe. We don't have Anderson hitting 25 pinch homeruns this year.

[Frayed Knot]

="AG/DC"]And the offense that fails in the last third of the game can't attributed to different personnel.

Egg-Zactly!!
We know our starters are better than our pen so the Runs-Against disparity early vs. late is more easily explainable.
The Runs-Scored disparity, however, is, for the most part, the same guys simply not being nearly as good as they were an hour or two earlier - and against theoretically worse pitchers.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

It's not a fluke, either. Here's the OPS+ split by inning.

1st inning: 126
2nd inning: 101
3rd inning: 122
4th inning: 102
5th inning: 92
6th inning: 110
7th inning: 85
8th inning: 92
9th inning: 84
Extras inn: 78

[batmagadanleadoff]

="Frayed Knot"]Met OPS by inning: 9th - .628

What is the rest of the league OPSing in the 1st inning? In the ninth inning? Teams tend to pitch their best relievers in the 9th inning. I haven't checked the OPS numbers but historically, less runs are scored in the 9th than in any other non-extra inning.

[Elster88]

OlerudOwned wrote: It's not a fluke, either. Here's the OPS+ split by inning. 1st inning: 126 2nd inning: 101 3rd inning: 122 4th inning: 102 5th inning: 92 6th inning: 110 7th inning: 85 8th inning: 92 9th inning: 84 Extras inn: 78

Is this the OPS+ for the inning or just straight OPS+? Cuz if it's straight OPS+, which I'm guessing it is, it won't tell us how the Mets do in the ninth compared to other teams in the ninth.

Edited August 26, 2008 by Guest

[Guest OlerudOwned]

="batmagadanleadoff"] ="Frayed Knot"]Met OPS by inning: 9th - .628 What is the rest of the league OPSing in the 1st inning? In the ninth inning? Teams tend to pitch their best relievers in the 9th inning. I haven't checked the OPS numbers but historically, less runs are scored in the 9th than in any other non-extra inning.

Ahem. *nodding upward*

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Elster88 wrote: ="OlerudOwned"]It's not a fluke, either. Here's the OPS+ split by inning. 1st inning: 126 2nd inning: 101 3rd inning: 122 4th inning: 102 5th inning: 92 6th inning: 110 7th inning: 85 8th inning: 92 9th inning: 84 Extras inn: 78 Is this the OPS+ for the inning or just straight OPS+? Cuz if it's straight OPS+, which I'm guessing it is, it won't tell us how the Mets do in the ninth compared to other teams in the ninth.

Nope, it's the split OPS+.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=NYM&year=2008#situa-innng

]sOPS+ - OPS+ of this split relative to the major league OPS for this split: 100*((split OBP/ML avg. OBP of split) + (split SLG/ML avg. SLG of split) - 1)

[Elster88]

Nice.

[batmagadanleadoff]

OlerudOwned wrote: Ahem. *nodding upward*

What kinda data ya got? Could we get some labels here?

[Guest OlerudOwned]

="batmagadanleadoff"] ="OlerudOwned"]Ahem. *nodding upward* What kinda data ya got? Could we get some labels here?

Recap:

sOPS+ - OPS+ of this split relative to the major league OPS for this split: 100*((split OBP/ML avg. OBP of split) + (split SLG/ML avg. SLG of split) - 1)

1st inning: 126
2nd inning: 101
3rd inning: 122
4th inning: 102
5th inning: 92
6th inning: 110
7th inning: 85
8th inning: 92
9th inning: 84
Extras inn: 78

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=NYM&year=2008#situa-innng

[nymr83]

of course theres still 0 evidence that links scoring early instead of late to a worse win-loss record.

[batmagadanleadoff]

="OlerudOwned"] ="batmagadanleadoff"] ="OlerudOwned"]Ahem. *nodding upward* What kinda data ya got? Could we get some labels here? Recap: sOPS+ - OPS+ of this split relative to the major league OPS for this split: 100*((split OBP/ML avg. OBP of split) + (split SLG/ML avg. SLG of split) - 1) 1st inning: 126 2nd inning: 101 3rd inning: 122 4th inning: 102 5th inning: 92 6th inning: 110 7th inning: 85 8th inning: 92 9th inning: 84 Extras inn: 78 http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=NYM&year=2008#situa-innng

I don't understand what that data is for. Is that Mets OPS data? NL data? AL? MLB? This season? The last 21 seasons? What? Help me here.

[Guest AG/DC]

Nymr83 wrote: of course theres still 0 evidence that links scoring early instead of late to a worse win-loss record.

there's plent of evidence that the Mets have wasted more than their share of oppotunities that would have helped them win games.

[nymr83]

i dont think thats true either unless you mean "every runner that gets on base should score"

the mets are 3rd in the league in OBP and 3rd in Runs Scored. seems like they are taking care of just as many opportunities as can be expected. they have not wasted "more than their share of opportunties"

[Guest AG/DC]

No need to quote me.

You're jumping from seems to is.

[nymr83]

AG/DC wrote: You're jumping from seems to is.

where am i doing that? you said "there's" (which i take to be there IS) "plenty of evidence that..."

[Guest OlerudOwned]

="batmagadanleadoff"] ="OlerudOwned"] ="batmagadanleadoff"] ="OlerudOwned"]Ahem. *nodding upward* What kinda data ya got? Could we get some labels here? Recap: sOPS+ - OPS+ of this split relative to the major league OPS for this split: 100*((split OBP/ML avg. OBP of split) + (split SLG/ML avg. SLG of split) - 1) 1st inning: 126 2nd inning: 101 3rd inning: 122 4th inning: 102 5th inning: 92 6th inning: 110 7th inning: 85 8th inning: 92 9th inning: 84 Extras inn: 78 http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=NYM&year=2008#situa-innng I don't understand what that data is for. Is that Mets OPS data? NL data? AL? MLB? This season? The last 21 seasons? What? Help me here.

Mets, for this season, relative to the entire major leagues in 2008.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I see. So does a "100" mean that the Mets are league average for that particular inning?

[Frayed Knot]

]So does a "100" mean that the Mets are league average for that particular inning?

That's the idea.
And our OPS in 1st innings is (an adjusted) 26% above lg norm while our 9th is 16% below




To put it all in another perspective, the Mets are scoring;
42% of their runs in innings 1 thru 3
35% in innings 4-6
and 23% in 7-9

... while the NL as a whole (minus NYM) are scoring;
34% of their runs in innings 1-3
36% in 4-6
and 30% in innings 7-9

That 7 thru 9 is lower makes sense since winning home teams either don't bat in the 9th or only bat until they have the exact # of runs they need.
But while the run production for other teams takes a dip late in the game, ours falls off the cliff.