A Bullpen without Heilman

[Mex17]

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets205469007nov20,0,1783437.story

The most prominent major-leaguer to be traded could be reliever Aaron Heilman, who still has value among opposing teams. The Mets have long held Heilman out of trade discussions, but Minaya clearly wants to pull off a big deal.

So imagine a Rotation of:

1) "Mystery Ace Obtained via Trade"
2) Martinez
3) Maine
4) Perez
5) Competition of "Mystery Mediocre Free Agent Innings-Eater" along with whoever is not traded amongst Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey (and maybe throw Vargas in there to make it more of a competition)

And then a Bullpen of:

Wagner
Sanchez (better hope he is healthy)
Feliciano
Schoenweis
Mota (yep. . .he'll be back I am betting)
Hernandez/Sosa (you can add these guys into the 5th starter race as well)
Smith/Padilla/Collazo/Muniz

So then, in this model, you are not only not adding to the bullpen at all but subtracting from it, but you are adding to the rotation. Can improving the rotation get more out of what we already have in the bullpen? Better starters can make for more rested and effective relievers. I think that this is what Omar is thinking.

Fine, but just don't trade Fernando Martinez (and only one of Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey please). . .maybe adding Heilman can help to satisfy those two wishes.

[Mex17]

The one other thing that I would also do to maximize the return on our "chips" is NOT try to get a catcher via trade. Really, Jason Kendall is just fine by me if you do not want to give up a draft pick for Barrett.

But don't trade Fernando Martinez (and only one of Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey)

[smg58]

The Mets bullpen was unacceptably bad with Heilman last year. You can't be so confident in Sanchez to make Heilman expendable. The way I see it, the Mets should go into spring training with four definites and at least six maybes.

The definites:
1. Wagner
2. ???????
3. Heilman
4. Feliciano

The maybes:
Sanchez, Smith, Humber, Padilla, Mota, Schoenweis, Collazzo, Muniz

I think a major bullpen pickup is essential, but the FA pool is fairly deep (way deeper than the pool for starters). You could deal Heilman, but then you'll need to make two major bullpen pickups, and that would be a challenge. Plus a long man/sixth starter who can give you 100 innings below 4.50 would be nice.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't think I can make much of an informed decision about "Mystery Ace Obtained via Trade." That could be Bret Saberhagen or it could be Victor Zambrano.

I also don't think Jason Kendall is fine.

[soupcan]

I expect a much better year out of Schoenweiss.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

shhh... don't let it out that he & Heilman were the best relievers we had left by the end of the year.

Oh, by the way, something bad happened to Wagner late last year. I'd like to believe they have a backup plan/groom a new guy, etc.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

soupcan wrote: I expect a much better year out of Schoenweiss.

Soup, I like the optimism. But I have to ask why you think that way?

[soupcan]

He was hurt at the beginning and most of last year. Pitching with a torn hamstring I believe.

At the end when he started pitching more effectively I surmised that he had finally started feeling better.

Besides the fact that he was pretty good before he got here.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I suspect a possible suspension to give him healing time.

[soupcan]

Yeah, well there is that.

[smg58]

Schoeneweis had a good last two months in 06, too, after sucking horribly up to that point. I'm not sure it's healthy to read to much into how he finished up.

Actually, his splits against lefties were perfectly OK. But if somebody wants a good post-Halloween fright, check out his splits against righties.

His contract makes him hard to move. But I wouldn't let the money he's owed give him any benefit of the doubt going into the spring. If Collazzo pitches well enough to head north and he doesn't, you have to give Collazzo that spot.

Wagner's 1.28 ERA in early August was never going to be sustainable. He did have a bad five-game stretch at the end of August, and you do have to wonder what happened there, but the other blips on his game log would have been acceptable if the whole team hadn't caved in. I wouldn't panic with him yet. Not sure if there's a future closer in our pipeline, though.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The thing about Wagner was he had a tough time in 2006 against righties. For the first half of 2007, his slider was eating them up and he'd finish them off with the heater up and away; for the second half, he couldn't get anythiing past them.

I don't think anything is worng healthwise. The slider just stopped working in those situations, whether due to mechanics or the league catching up to him. He was still money against the best lefthanded batters, if I recall right.

[Valadius]

I think the guy we'd hope replace Wagner eventually is Eddie Kunz.

[G-Fafif]

Passing thought that brought excitement yesterday: "Only one year left on Mota's contract!"

And to think I used to count down toward Opening Day.

[MFS62]

The author of the Newsday article just lost his bet on Mota.


I'm kvelling.

Later

[nymr83]

i don't think Hernandez is part of any 5th starter "race" or the bullpen. if he's healthy and on the team he's part of the rotation

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I agree. Hernandez misses a number of starts each year due to various infirmities, but when he has been able to take the mound he has been effective. In my mind, Hernandez is easily in the 5 man starting rotation before any of Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, or Vargas.

[Guest attgig]

from the newsday article:

]So they will be in the mix for the likes of Minnesota's Johan Santana, Baltimore's Erik Bedard, Oakland's Joe Blanton and Dan Haren and Milwaukee's Ben Sheets should those clubs make those pitchers available.

So, I'm looking at those names... and in order of who I would like to have on the mets:

Santana
Bedard
Haren
Sheets

Blanton

is that fair?


the thing is. Blanton shouldn't even belong in that list...should he?

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Blanton may not be on the same level as Santana, Bedard, Sheets, and Haren, but he is young (turns 27 12/11) and has a pretty good track record. He had a bad year in 2006, but has otherwise been pretty solid. He makes 30 plus starts every season and throws 200 plus innings. He could likely be acquired for a lesser trade package than the others. Not my first choice, but a solid ML pitcher that would strengthen the Mets rotation. Definitely worth looking at if a blockbuster trade for a bonafide front of the rotation "ace" can't be worked out.

Due to reliability/durability issues, I would likely put Blanton ahead of Sheets on your ordering. Sheets has a greater upside when he's healthy, but his durability hasn't been close to that of Blanton and Sheets is 2+ years older.

[smg58]

The durability factor would make Blanton a better pick-up than Sheets. In fact, I don't know that Sheets would really make a good fit given that we already can't expect 30 starts from two of our guys.