Arizona Stink Weed

[Guest Edgy DC]

Player	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS	E
Michel Abreu	1B	3	11	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	.231	.182	.091	.413	1
Bobby Malek	OF	5	13	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	.200	.077	.077	.277	0
Fernando Martinez	OF	5	15	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	.125	.067	.067	.192	0

[Guest Edgy DC]

A little less dreary on the pitching ledger.

Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	HLD	GF
Philip Humber	0	0	4.50	1	1	0	0	0	2.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	3	1.50	0	0
Kevin Mulvey	0	0	9.00	1	1	0	0	0	2.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	1	1.50	0	0
Mike Pelfrey	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2.00	0	0

[Valadius]

But only a little. Yikes.

[RealityChuck]

Doesn't mean anything. One game for each of the pitchers? And Martinez is, what, 12 years old or something?

[nymr83]

small sample size

edit- chuck beat me to it and injected some reality into this post

[Guest Edgy DC]

Martinez went 2-4 yesterday. No other Mets played.

Yay.

[Frayed Knot]

BA looks at some Arizona-based Mets:


Mets righthander Mike Pelfrey is currently having an awakening of sorts in the Arizona Fall League.

The book on Pelfrey for much of his first full season, after signing late as New York’s first-rounder (and ninth overall) in 2005, was big fastball velocity and command, with below-average secondary pitches.

Pelfrey has made strides--along with some alterations--with his offspeed stuff over the last three weeks. He scrapped his hard curveball for the equivalent of a slider. It's a sharp, late-breaking offering that has shown flashes of having good depth and tilt.

"You can see he struggles with it at times," a scout from an American League club said, "but when he stays on top of it and stays easy in his arm action, it has the makings of a plus pitch."

It's something Pelfrey needed, but with his fastball in the mid-to-upper 90s, adding an 85-87 mph slider is only half the battle. He didn't have good command of his changeup for much of 2006 either, but has worked extensively on controlling his arm speed and tinkered with his grip slightly to have an effective third pitch--especially against lefthanded hitters.

"I quit throwing the curveball and picked up on this slider a little while back, and I think it's right where it needs to be right now," Pelfrey said. "I think it's going to complement my style a little bit better and be a good pitch for me once I get more consistent with it.

"With the changeup, I'm starting to command it a little bit better and it has some sink on the end. I think I just got more comfortable with the grip we're using now and I'm throwing it more than I had in the past, so the confidence is starting to get there too."

Pelfrey went a combined 7-3, 2.43 with 109 strikeouts in 96 innings between high Class A St. Lucie, Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Norfolk, with a brief promotion to New York mixed in. In the AFL, the 6-foot-7 righthander has allowed one hit in four innings, facing a total of 13 batters for Mesa.

"It’s 60-feet, six inches for everybody else, but for Pelfrey it's more like 50 feet--total," Solar Sox righthander Kevin Slowey (Twins) said. "He gets such good extension, he's very free and easy and the ball just explodes out of his hand. And with that height advantage, the ball's on top of hitters a heck of a lot quicker than a lot of other guys out here. Add in that velocity and he's dirty . . . just plain filthy."

Pelfrey dominated the Florida State League in 2006, but allowed 13 runs in his first five starts at Double-A. So the Mets brought in veteran catcher Mike DeFelice to Binghamton to give their prized prospect some kind of comfort level. With DeFelice behind the plate, Pelfrey went on a tear, reeling off 3-1, 2.32 numbers with 35 strikeouts in 31 innings in June.

"I even told the Mets that he was the one who turned my season around," Pelfrey said. "He was just a guy I felt like I could talk to--someone who's been (in the big leagues), somebody who's had that experience. He taught me more about attacking hitters in mixing in my breaking ball and make it more useable, because honestly it's never been great. But he put me in situations where I could use it and have success and gain confidence in myself. He was a big reason I was able to do what I did."

Pelfrey has plenty of aggressiveness and nasty pure stuff, but he knows keeping hitters off the pace of his fastball is what it takes to have any kind of success at the next level.

"I just have to keep using the slider and the changeup to where I'm comfortable throwing either one at any time and know I can command and locate it where I want it," Pelfrey said. "I'm happy with where things are right now, but I know I still have a lot of work to do to get them where they need to be."



MULLING MULVEY: The Mets didn't have a first-round pick in the 2006 draft, selecting Villanova righthander Kevin Mulvey as their top choice in the second round.

So far, Mulvey been holding his own. The New Jersey native jumped to Double-A in his debut where he went 0-1, 1.35 in 13 innings.

Mulvey has been just as impressive in the AFL, despite allowing five runs over his eight innings of work.

"He's got good command of three pitches," a scout from an American League club said. "Good velocity on the fastball--90-93 (mph)--and a nice mix of secondary pitches with a pretty darned good feel for his changeup."

Mulvey was a 34th-round pick of the Cardinals out of high school but opted to head to Villanova, and the move paid off after three seasons as he emerged as a second-round talent. The Phillies were heavily linked to Mulvey heading into the draft, but he wound up going to his favorite team--and the team his parents were watching while his mother Carole was going through labor.

"I just found this out recently, but apparently they were watching the Mets-Cubs game on TV in the hospital," Mulvey said. "All I know is Doc Gooden was pitching, so it makes everything that’s happened a little more special."



MUY CALIENTE, FERNANDO: Mets outfielder Fernando Martinez is the youngest player in the history of the AFL, turning 18 on the Fall League's Opening Day, but even facing players five to six years older, Martinez has shown tools worthy of his $1.4 million bonus.

Martinez is hitting just .233 (10-for-43) for Mesa, but that includes a 1-for-18 start. He has shown excellent bat speed, instincts and the ability to use the whole field in a prospect-laden showcase.

"He's still so young, but the ball just jumps off his bat," Solar Sox manager Pat Listach said. "He's a tough kid with tremendous natural ability. He's hit some balls I'm just amazed by, to be honest. The first day of batting practice, he's out there hitting opposite-field home runs. I know it's BP, but for a 17-year-old to be out there taking balls out the other way, it's just very impressive."

Martinez was expected to play all three outfield spots in Arizona, but has played exclusively center for Mesa. And while the tools are there offensively, his defense is still a work in progress.

"He still needs some time on routes, jumps, those types of things that will only get better with more experience," Listach said. "This is a real test for him and he's responded."

[soupcan]

Frayed Knot wrote: MULLING MULVEY: ...The Phillies were heavily linked to Mulvey heading into the draft, but he wound up going to his favorite team--and the team his parents were watching while his mother Carole was going through labor. "I just found this out recently, but apparently they were watching the Mets-Cubs game on TV in the hospital," Mulvey said. "All I know is Doc Gooden was pitching, so it makes everything that�s happened a little more special."

The kids birthday is 5/26/85 so this must have been the game. Yeah Doc was pitching, but what are the odds it would've been one of his only 4 losses that season?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Wow, I got three chills from one post. How gullible does that make me?

And, criminy, how much more aggressively can the Mets push their talent?

[soupcan]

David West, Alex Ochoa, Alex Escobar.

'Nuff said.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Nah.

[soupcan]

Just in terms of the Mets pushing their talent.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I used push in the sense that Reyes, Wright, Milledge, and now Martinez have gotten fast-tracked through the minors, not in the sense of promotion. Is that how you mean it?

[soupcan]

Yeah, that's how I meant it. Thought you were saying the same thing.

As nicely as Reyes and Wright have turned out, I still think of the ones I was conned into believing in.

Especially West for some reason even though his 'potential' or lack thereof ultimately worked in the Mets favor.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, that's Baseball America doing the "pushing" there, and all the quotes come from non-Met sources.

Really, if the Mets were promoting their top prospects up levels rapidly, and overhyping them, it would be all kinds of foolish.

"Youngest player in the history of the AFL" is sobering, no?

[soupcan]

True dat.

But let's not pretend that the Mets wouldn't have a reason to overhype.

Make your chips look as attractive as possible to enhance possible trade value.

I don't blame them when they do it, but when I was young and foolish I always fell into that trap and it drove me crazy.

So when I read great things about minor leaguers I tend towards the skeptical. Which is not so bad really and works nicely on the rare occasion when the prospect does pan out.

I never believed any David Wright hype, never expected much from him. Now it just shits and giggles whenever I think about the Mets third baseman for at least the next 7 years.

[MFS62]

soupcan wrote: Especially West for some reason even though his 'potential' or lack thereof ultimately worked in the Mets favor.

Soupy, I recall reading some comments by one of the Phillies coaches after they acquired him from the Mets. He wondered how a pitcher with West's great stuff had apparently received little or no coaching in some pitching basics while in the Mets organization.

As it turned out, they weren't able to improve him much when he was there either.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

Before this gets too far off topic, the moment calls for a far less stinky update.

Player	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	E
Michel Abreu	1B	8	33	6	8	3	0	3	7	20	5	5	0	1	.242	.342	.606	.948	1
Bobby Malek	OF	12	38	5	10	5	0	0	4	15	4	6	0	0	.263	.333	.395	.728	0
Fernando Martinez	OF	12	43	6	10	0	0	2	5	16	0	9	0	0	.233	.261	.372	.633	0

Abreu also had the RBI ending this 17-inning game, believed to be the longest in AFL history.

[MFS62]

Edgy, I think you may want to take another look at the headings on your chart and flip-flop two of them. Those averages don't look right.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

Gotcha.

Michel Abreu is too old to be putzin' around in the minors. I think he gets a good shot to make the 2007 Mets.

[Frayed Knot]

Back in the olden days, those pre-historic times before the internet, talk radio, fan message boards, and before things like Baseball America or other rotisserie-aimed web sites were analyzing prospects to within an inch of their lives by the time they're barely out of their teens, about all a standard fan had to go on as far as the future of minor leaguers was the spin coming out of the team's pr dept.
The Mets were absolutely guily of revving up the hype machine during the 'Gen-K' days. Since then, if anything, I think they've been overly-cautious to go exactly the other way.


David West was a guy who had his rep somewhat articfically puffed up (something the Mets later admitted to) mostly for trade purposes. Back in those pre-'Moneyball' days when the dreams of scouts still prevailed, there was no shortage of people - both fans and those within the business - who were willing to bet on the future of a 6'-6" LHP with "stuff". I don't know now, and certainly didn't know then, to what degree West was actually 'dominating' in the minors and how much was merely hope.

Ochoa - He was highly touted in the Bal'mer system at the time of the trade (I remember Gammons raving over him) and was also considered close to being ready. Everyone remembers the "5-tool" comments - although, in fairness, they did say; 'four, with the potential for the 5th' power) developing as time went on. That he never went on to hit at the ML level (he could always run, throw & field) is what doomed his career.
Good thing we insisted on him in the Bonilla deal instead of that Benitez kid the Orioles were trying to pawn off on us, huh?

Escobar - The classic case of putting too much stock in success at a lower level. Escobar, unlike say West, did grow up in the era where monor leaguers were closely tracked by outsiders. The problem with him was that everyone - in a rush to claim that they were touting him first - went overboard in declaring him the next great thing after his "breakout" season in Low-A ball! He then came up with a back injury which knocked him out for over a year and never really dominated the way he had that one season. Problem is, that 'Next Great Thing' label hung in people's minds to the point where they acted as if deceived when he didn't set the world on fire. Had they really been paying attention, they shouldn't have been.
Fernando Martinez right now is in a similar place to where Escobar was when everyone jumped on his bandwagon: Exciting and promising, just wait for a bit more success up the ladder before you start penciling him in to your '08, '09, or '10 lineups.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Ochoa had himself a modestly good career. No better or worse than most other fourth outfeilders.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, it just that he wasn't supposed to be a 4th outfielder.

And basically that post was just my long-winded way of saying that fans need to learn to treat each "propsect" differently. There's no reason to assume that player 'X' is going to fail because years ago 'Y' didn't meet up to someone else's idea (and maybe not an informed opinion at that) of what he "should have" become, and that the "can't miss" guys of yesteryear maybe never should have been stamped that way in the first place.

[nymr83]

thats true, but i think it is ok to assume, at least on some level, that some teams hype their prospects more/less than others and so we should be more/less suprised when a hyped prospect of a given organization fails. of course with BA and the growth of statistical analysis its no longer as easy for a guy to be hyped up by his own team without any backing, but i'm sure it still happens...and if other teams are going to believe even a small fraction of the hype then its worth doing it to boost trade values

[Guest Edgy DC]

Why aren't we talking about that isolated power average of .364 that Michel Abreu is posting?

[Guest old original jb]

="Frayed Knot"]BA ...Mets righthander Mike Pelfrey is currently having an awakening of sorts in the Arizona Fall League. "It�s 60-feet, six inches for everybody else, but for Pelfrey it's more like 50 feet--total," Solar Sox righthander Kevin Slowey (Twins) said. "He gets such good extension, he's very free and easy and the ball just explodes out of his hand. And with that height advantage, the ball's on top of hitters a heck of a lot quicker than a lot of other guys out here. Add in that velocity and he's dirty . . . just plain filthy."

So he's what, about 5-10 feet taller than all the other pitchers?

[Guest Edgy DC]

He's pitching in the AFL All-Star Game today.

[Frayed Knot]

]So he's what, about 5-10 feet taller than all the other pitchers?

Only 3 feet taller actually, but his arms are like 7 longer than the average man!!
Makes it tough to buy shirts.

[nymr83]

Edgy DC wrote: Why aren't we talking about that isolated power average of .364 that Michel Abreu is posting?

sample size. if he puts that up next season i'll be talking about it more than any of you would like to hear
also, isn't he a bit old for the AFL or even AA?

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: ]So he's what, about 5-10 feet taller than all the other pitchers? Only 3 feet taller actually, but his arms are like 7 longer than the average man!! Makes it tough to buy shirts.

i'm "only" 6'5 and pants are hard to find...another few inches and you'd be totally screwed