Can we trade Julio for him?

[Guest KC]

I don't know why anyone should be expected to eat dirt, but I'd have no
qualms about acknowledging Ty's breakout season should it happen and
giving credit to those who called it.

[nymr83]

lets put 1/3 of the games in the books before we decide who is having a great/terrible season... i still think Wigginton isn't going to be a good player, He's got a nice headstart though so i'd think he can get his final OPS to .750

[Vic Sage]

Wigginton was moved off 2b in the minors, because he didn't have the range to play the position.

They tried him out for some starts in the majors, but weren't impressed. They also gave him starts at 1b and OF. They moved him back to 3b the next season where he had a decent but not great season. He then sucked the following year, and we traded him for a decent SPer because: (1) a decent #3 SPer is better than a mediocre 3bman, and (2) we had a good 3bman in the pipeline.

why didn't they move him back to 2b? Because (1) they'd already seen enough of him there to conclude he wasn't the answer, and (2) there was a Japanese MVP-level SS they (and just about every other ML team) had an eye on.

Since trading him, he's played only a few games at 2b, so two other teams haven't viewed him in that role either. Ultimately, the team we traded Wiggy to thought so much of him they released him outright.

Now that he's had a hot month, we're supposed to gnash our teeth and shake our fists in despair?

Puhleez. If we'd kept Benson, or traded him for decent value, or if Aubrey Huff didn't go on the DL thus giving a bench player a shot to start again (at 3b), we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

And in a month, when he's back on track for a .260/15hr/70rbi/.750OPS season, with defense still insufficient to convince any of 3 organizations to play him at 2b, he'll end up back on bench once Huff comes back. But by then we'll all be focused on some other specious evidence of Mets incompetence as provided by Bret.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Vic Sage wrote: And in a month, when he's back on track for a .260/15hr/70rbi/.750OPS season, with defense still insufficient to convince any of 3 organizations to play him at 2b.

There are three facts that, despite that impressive barrage of bullshit and bluster, you aren't even trying to deny:

1) Matsui hasn't yet, and probably never will, put up an offensive season as good as .260/15hr/70rbi/.750OPS,

2) Wiggy's defensive stats at 2B are every bit as good as Matsui's have been

3) Wiggy makes under a tenth of what Matsui makes.


Then there are other facts that you might add to that list:

4) Wiggy's more than halfway to 15 HRs already. If he hits his career numbers from here on in, he'll have a great season. if he has a bad season from here on in, he'll still have a pretty good season, certainly better than Matsui's.

5) The fact that the Mets "weren't impressed" with him is exactly my point. They don't know how to judge talent, and so understandably prefer buying it at inflated prices in the hope that no one will find out they have no idea what a MLB 2b man looks lilke.

6) The Mets might have been no smarter than every other major league club about Matsui's magnificent abilities, but I've got to think they felt just a bit more strongly about their consummate scouting skills on account of the 24 million they spent to back up their belief in Kaz Matsui, superstar. That's usually a hint as to the belief in their own acumen, the actual spending money part, which none of the other clubs felt inclined to do. Or didn;t you notice that? Did Selig issue some statement about MLB's collective guilt in signing Matsui? I didn't see that. Also the "moving your young star shortstop to a different position so the lordly No-Trade-Clause Kaz can play the position granted him by God" part.


And finally 7) Do I understand you correctly that the team that played Kaz "Concrete Feet" Matsui and Joel "Fucking" Cairo at 2b last year is now presuming to pass judgment on any living secondbaseman as to his lack of range? I must be misunderstanding you on this. Even the Mets couldn't be so arrogantly unperceptive as to make that argument. Could you bellow obnoxiously a bit more directly into the microphone, please?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

="KC"]I don't know why anyone should be expected to eat dirt

I see young men, my townsmen, whose misfortune it is to have inherited farms, houses, barns, cattle, and farming tools; for these are more easily acquired than got rid of. Better if they had been born in the open pasture and suckled by a wolf, that they might have seen with clearer eyes what field they were called to labor in. Who made them serfs of the soil? Why should they eat their sixty acres, when man is condemned to eat only his peck of dirt?

Thoreau, WALDEN, "Economy"

[Guest KC]

1Chris Brown (956)
2 Wes Helms (950)
3 Mike Cuddyer (949)
4 Bill Serena (949)
5 Matt LeCroy (948)
6 Ed Lennox (941)
7 Wes Chamberlain (938)
8 Joe Crede (938)
9 Felix Torres (935)
10 Tommy Glaviano (934)

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Your faith in Sim scores seems to have improved since the time I showed what Piazza's future held for him according to Sim scores. Back then, they were the work of the devil, and utterly unreliable, as I recall. Guess their reliability depends on if they're being used for or against the Mets.

Piaza had a much larger sample size to go on, then, of course. Even if the Mets only had a 2b man who performed at the average level of those pretty poor Sim scores, they'd still be getting Matsui-level play at bargain basement prices.

Keep trying, though. Always a pleasure to be in fruitful communication with you.

[Guest KC]

Instead of posting more on dirt, I looked up the scores because I remembered
that you have in the past used them to make a point. Ty's guys have one all-star
appearance in the whole lot of ten is all I'm pointing out.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Bit of a slump here. Ty's 1 (non-RBI single) for his last 7 ABs . http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6930

Season's projections down to 71 HRs, 178 RBIs. He's slipped just behind Bonds' record and Hack Wilson's.

Bummer.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I like Wiggy as a utility infielder. I think he'd probably have worse range at second than Matsui and probably about the same range as Cairo. He'd probably be better at turning DP's than Matsui but worse than Cairo.

I have nothing to base this on, although if I think about it when I get home, I'll take a peek at the Defense Bible to see what they say about Wiggy.

In short, though, while I kind of agree with Bret here about Wiggy's upside, I'm not convinced he has the defense to be an every day 2B. He probably wouldn't be much worse than what we got last year, however.

I'm still intrigued by what a healthy Matsui is capable of. However, I have no confidence that he'll stay healthy.

Anyway, since y'all were discussing comps:

Wiggy (via PECOTA)
2006 weighted mean: 424 AB, .261 AVG/.325 OBP/.419 SLG/.744 OPS, 12 HR. They're fairly confident in their predictions here.

Comps (all caps = similarity based on minor league stats):

1. Sean Berry (57) -- career OPS+ of 105; Age 28: 106; Age 29: 132; Age 30: 122
2. Benny Agbayani (50) -- career OPS+ of 109; Age 28: 126; Age 29: 103; Age 30: 60
3. CASEY BLAKE (50) -- career OPS+ of 103; Age 28: 42 (22 PA); Age 29: 95; Age 30: 118
4. Glenn Braggs (49) -- 98; Age 28: 108; Age 29: 107; Age 30: out of baseball
5. Marty Cordova (49) -- 103; Age 28: 85; Age 29: 107; Age 30: 66
6. Vance Law (49) -- 94; Age 28: 123; Age 29: 73; Age 30: 101

Not bad comps.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

One reason I think the Mets got rubed on the Kris Benson deal (one of several) was that they tried to leverage our huge bankroll to take on salary in exchange for young talent, and they overestimated the level of talent they were getting back, and underestimated Ty's value. IOW, we were giving Pittsburgh something they badly needed--a cheap and competent regular player for at least several more years. They needed that like they needed air to breathe, and so did the Mets.

Not that 12 HRs from a 2b man is going to win any MVP awards, but if you can play a young cheap guy regularly and he does a competent job, that's one less position you have to worry about. if they had put Wiggy at 2b in 2004, they didn't need to sign Matsui in the first place, but Matsui still had some trade value in July of 2004--if they had dealt him off for a pitcher, they'd have done about as well as they did at 2B the last few years and spent his salary on another pitcher, maybe even Benson in the off-season 2004-5.

And I don;t mean to get ahead of myself here, but Wiggy';s already 2/3s of the way to 12 HRs in April, so I'm pretty sure he's going to have a better year than PECOTA is projecting.

Unless you're the Yankees you need a core of competent cheap young players to keep your budget in line, so you can acquire veterans who will perform. That's Wiggy's real value--a place-holder, a decent everyday ballplayer who does an okay job (and maybe better than okay) and doesn;t cost a lot of cash. I think the Mets evaluated that as close to worthless, and it's not.

I also think not having enough cheap young talent encourages the Mets to stick with their expensive mistakes. Again, I'm not advocating chopping Matsui and Zambrano up for dog food, but their demonstrated talent level suggests more like "utility player" and "long-relief guy" than it does "front-line starter," but they already feel they're paying front-line salaries so they're stubbornly keeping the zhlubs in the front lilne. Maybe that's a whole nother error in their thinking, but I think one cause might be the shortage of cheap young talent, Wright and Reyes notwithstanding..

[Guest Rotblatt]

BP's Jeff Erickson weighs in on Wiggy.

]A week ago on Sunday I was trading IM's back and forth with my friend Dan Quon, and Ty Wigginton's name came up. He's cooled off in the week since we've talked, but even after a fairly slow week, he's hitting .281/.323/.607 for the Devil Rays entering Monday's play. Is he in over his head right now? Absolutely--clearly, he's not going to slug .600 or anywhere close to that for the remainder of the year. That said, there were signs that he was a better hitter than what we saw with the Pirates. The first thing that jumps off the page is the pronounced difference between his stats before and after his demotion to Triple-A Indianapolis. Pre-demotion: .204/.261/.398 At Indianapolis: .293/.390/.507 After return: .365/.441/.596 Ron Shandler, in his excellent Baseball Forecaster, pointed out that Wigginton was exceptionally unlucky over the first half of the season, with a 19% hit rate on balls in play. Wigginton's playing time was sporadic, as he first split time with Bobby Hill and then Freddy Sanchez, who was given the job when Wigginton went to Indy. Finally, the power he showed with Indy and upon his return also was apparent in previous seasons, when he slugged .487 in 312 at-bats with the Mets in 2004, as Dan mentioned. He's 28 now, so he's in his peak years, and as a college draftee, has had less time at the professional level to develop. Going forward, if he were to play regularly the rest of the year, it's reasonable to expect him to slug .475 or better, which should translate into some bankable fantasy stats.