On Valentin, Split from Quotes Thread

[Frayed Knot]

"Matsui OTOH has demonstrated to all but the most hardcore Metsaholics that he's not a MLB player."

Before a late-season injury that curtailed his '04 season, he was headed for a .275 BA with around 50 XBH.
Shirley you, being the captain of; 'Can't-carry-Ordonez-with-that-bat' Committee, can't be claiming that Andy's glove will "make up for" the diff in offense unless his suddenly (or even eventually) improves a whole helluva lot.

I don't care what they're paying KazMat - dumping him doesn't cost any more than keeping him - but if he can hit better than the temp incumbent then I'll play him until I think otherwise.

[Guest vtmet]

not to rain on anyone's "AH can't hit" assumption, since his overall average backs up the assumption and he does not have power...but, after having an 0-12 in his first 3 games, he's got 4 hits in his last 11 at bats since...2 hits against Dontrelle, while most of the rest of the team did nothing...I think there is still hope there...Rusty or not, Valentin has power, but is a lousy hitter/fielder. Valentin hasn't hit over .249 since 2001 with each season having a worse average...

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't think that's everyone's assumption. Or necessarily anyone's.

[Guest vtmet]

not saying necessarily that is a position here...just that in cyberworld in general, there are many Mets fans that feel that AH has no business being in the majors because he, so far, has hit less than Kevin Baez...

[Elster88]

Well, that's a theory that has some validity. To this point, he has done nothing to earn a starting job other than to play a position with no other options. The place to learn to hit major league pitching is not in a starting major league role.

Now, if he learns to hit as the de facto starter, that's a different story. But if he remains in his current state until Matsui is ready, then Matsui should go in. No ifs, ands, or buts. I disagree violently with the "learn on the job" theory and the "he's shown promise" theory.

Unless peeps really think at this point (RIGHT NOW!!!) that AH is a better hitter than KazMat.

[Elster88]

The argument in Paragraph 1 in the above post may also apply to Matsui, of course.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]I disagree violently with the "learn on the job" theory and the "he's shown promise" theory.

How do you feel about the "You don't mess with a winning lineup" theory --- an old-school baseball truism that Willie Randolph has alluded to, if not wholeheartedly endorsed?

I think it's his way of showing confidence in Hernandez.

The answer seems obvious --- Matsui comes back, start him twice a week. If he outplays Hernandez, start him a little more. If he doesn't, a little less, until some balance achieved. That won't keep us, the press, or Randolph from belaboring the pont.

[Elster88]

]The answer seems obvious --- Matsui comes back, start him twice a week. If he outplays Hernandez, start him a little more. If he doesn't, a little less, until some balance achieved. That won't keep us, the press, or Randolph from belaboring the pont.

I don't like this. To me, this belabors the problem more. Whenever Matsui comes back, immediately start whoever the better player is. If he proves himself to be unworthy, replace him.

[Guest Edgy DC]

It's done like this all the time. Sometimes the better player isn't clear, especially when one disappeared due to injury and the other hasn't lit things up in his stead.

Managing is trying to find guys favorable spots. When more than one guy is available and neither is clearly the better player, you find both of them spots until one of them asserts himself and makes himself more worthy of the majority of spots than the other.

I don't see it belaboring, when you have two guys available, to give them both oportunities to flourish or fail.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

The guy said "Kevin Baez"

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I almost always ignore the signature lines in the posts, but at the end of each of Johnny's posts I hear a little dog barking in my head.

Woof!

[Guest vtmet]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: The guy said "Kevin Baez"

Baez hit .179 in his MLB career...
AH is hitting .174 so far in '06...

Difference is, Baez's .179 will forever be his MLB batting average; whereas AH still has a chance of improving his...

Tim Bogar & Kevin Baez, now those were some fine days of great hitting from our middle infield prospects at the MLB level...

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: It's done like this all the time.

Doesn't mean it's right. :-)

Edgy DC wrote: Sometimes the better player isn't clear, especially when one disappeared due to injury and the other hasn't lit things up in his stead.

But this time it is clear, at least IMHO. Matsui is a better hitter.

Edgy DC wrote: I don't see it belaboring, when you have two guys available, to give them both oportunities to flourish or fail.

I have no stats to back this up, but I see it as belaboring because a player is MUCH more likely to fail if he hits irregularly, such as two times a week. Eliminates the chance of getting into a rhythm or hot streak or whatever you want to call it. All hitters say that pinch hitting is much harder than regular hitting. It follows that hitting one or two games a week is harder than hitting when you get to see pitches every day. (It drove me bananas last year when Kaz came back in late-July or whatever, got two hits, and in the next game Cairo and his .175 batting average was back in there.)

"Well, maybe he would hit better if given the opportunity to play every day." Throw one guy in there, see what he does.

[Gwreck]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: And let's not forget that Woodward has seen very little action. He's probably safe because he seems to be a Willie favorite, but the fact remains, he hasn't been playing.

Woodward was going to get a start but didn't because of the rainout.

I think that's mostly irrelevant, though -- no reserve has been playing. Valentin and Diaz have 4 ABs, Franco 2, Woodward and Chavez 1. Castro hasn't seen game action yet.

Woodward's spot is safe I think because of the versatility. I would be rather surprised to have Valentin, Hernandez AND Matsui all on the roster at the same time.

[Guest Edgy DC]

It may have driven you crazy, but if he hit .353 / .382 /.585 // .967 in September under those conditions, numberrs which, taken alone, suggest he wasn't hurt by sharing the position, and the chance of him getting into a rhythm wasn't eliminated. In sharing the position, he was able to do what he wasn't able to earlier, prove that he was a superior choice over Cairo. Unfortunately it was too late for dialing back up his playing time to matter much.

If Randolph was supposed to just make a choice and stick with it under those conditions, he may well have made the wrong one.

Splitting a position with someone else should be more than enough action for someone to stay fresh. There are 25 guys on a team and Bobby Valentine always found time for them all --- many of them getting part-time spots here and there until they showed themsleves worthy of larger roles --- Alfonzo, Agbayani.

[Elster88]

Yup, I know all that.

My main problem is that if we're going to split games 4/2 or 5/2 per week, the guy getting more games should be Kaz.

[Elster88]

]but if he hit .353 / .382 /.585 // .967 in September under those conditions

Did he really hit this? And wasn't he back to playing every day in September.

Regardless, I hold to the belief that a player will perform better when played every day and not twice a week.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]My main problem is that if we're going to split games 4/2 or 5/2 per week, the guy getting more games should be Kaz.

Agreed, and as soon as he outhits a guy with a .348 OPS, he'll elevate himself.

]Did he really hit this? And wasn't he back to playing every day in September.

He did that in September, when his playing time was largely based on his struggles earlier in the year. Nonetheless, he was shortly playing five days in seven.

Then he aggravated his injuries. At least, that's how I remember it. He pretty much disappears after September 16.

Plus playing out the string means looking at rookie callups.

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: ]My main problem is that if we're going to split games 4/2 or 5/2 per week, the guy getting more games should be Kaz. Agreed, and as soon as he outhits a guy with a .348 OPS, he'll elevate himself.

Do you really think Willie will make the switch that quickly? I have little confidence in that.

Edgy DC wrote: ]Did he really hit this? And wasn't he back to playing every day in September. He did that in September, when his playing time was largely based on his struggles earlier in the year. Nonetheless, he was shortly playing five days in seven.

I might be biased against Willie or remembering wrong, but I thought he got back to playing regularly because Cairo got hurt, not because he started hitting well.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Kaz came off the DL on August 11th. He started the first game then sat for a while. He played sparingly until September 1, when the he became the primary guy. Did something happen? Injury? I don't recall.

Something surely happened in mid-September. I think Matsui was hurt and Cairo was sore, because Hernandez was called up after being sent home.

Starts:

11-Aug Matsui
12-Aug Cairo
13-Aug Cairo
14-Aug Cairo
15-Aug Off
16-Aug Cairo
17-Aug Cairo
18-Aug Cairo
19-Aug Cairo
20-Aug Cairo
21-Aug Cairo
22-Aug Matsui
23-Aug Cairo
24-Aug Matsui
25-Aug Cairo
26-Aug Cairo
27-Aug Matsui
28-Aug Cairo
29-Aug Cairo
30-Aug Cairo
31-Aug Cairo
1-Sep Matsui
2-Sep Cairo
3-Sep Cairo
4-Sep Matsui
5-Sep Matsui
6-Sep Matsui
7-Sep Matsui
8-Sep Matsui
9-Sep Cairo
10-Sep Matsui
11-Sep Matsui
12-Sep Off
13-Sep Matsui
14-Sep Matsui
15-Sep Matsui
16-Sep Matsui
17-Sep Cairo
18-Sep Hernandez
19-Sep Off
20-Sep Hernandez
21-Sep Cairo
22-Sep Cairo
23-Sep Hernandez
24-Sep Cairo
25-Sep Cairo
26-Sep Cairo
27-Sep Cairo
28-Sep Cairo
29-Sep Cairo
30-Sep Cairo

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Yes, he hurt himself again.

That's the one issue Kaz has had: An inability to hold it together physically: Basically any time he has been healthy for a decent stretch, he's been capable of -- and provided -- good stuff.

But at this point, his unreliablity is an even larger warning signal for WWSB, who didn't seem to warm to him last year either and we know got tired of an inability to communicate about his injuries and I suspect, doesn't trust him like he would another player.

That's why Bret's assumption that he'll get his job back, no questions asked, couldn't be farther off the mark, IMO. If there were no questions to ask he wouldn't be banished to rehab starts, dismissed as real possibility by Willie for the near future at least, and left to rot last year while Cairo got starts.

One other thing, semi-seriously: Reyes and Hernandez performed a pretty elaborate high-five ritual in the dugout the other day -- you may have seen it. It's just the kind of thing you never saw he & Kaz perform together. It's been my wild speculation from the start that Reyes was wounded by the whole "Kaz is the new SS" thing from 2004 and seeing as how the Mets are pretty strongly committed to Reyes, I figure that overtly or not, keeping him happy matters.

Add it all up
65%-fragility
10% the perception Hernandez is a better fielder
10% the fact that Hernandez hasn't yet proven he's horrible beyond redemption
5% frequent communication issues
5% chemistry wth Reyes
5% bad PR to reintroduce boo-mongerer

and this idea that Kaz is due, or will get, preferential treatment by the org is, IMO, way way off.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

As the Bartles and Jaymes ads used to end, "Thank you for your support."

Eventually, of course the Mets will give Kaz the boot--When they owe him very little money and have realized what anyone with an extra brain cell realized long ago: he ain't no major league starting infielder on a contending team, and if you want to deal him throw in 90% of his salary.

You remember, of course, that the word when he signed was 'durable." He's the japanese Lou Gehrig. He ain't going down with injury, you can count on Kaz all down the line, yyybbb until you puke your guts up.

Him and Cameron--tough guys, never miss a game. The really scary part is that the durable stuff is one of the things about Kaz that they've been LEAST wrong about. Whoops--BLEEEAAAGGGHH!

I'll clean that up in a minute--let me sit down first.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

]You remember, of course, that the word when he signed was 'durable." He's the japanese Lou Gehrig. He ain't going down with injury, you can count on Kaz all down the line, yyybbb until you puke your guts up.

What was untrue about this at the time it was said?

[Guest vtmet]

AH has at least temporarily reached the Mendoza line, reaching .200 with his 1 for 2 so far tonight...a 4 game hit streak going...Watch out Jimmy Rollins...

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: ]You remember, of course, that the word when he signed was 'durable." He's the japanese Lou Gehrig. He ain't going down with injury, you can count on Kaz all down the line, yyybbb until you puke your guts up. What was untrue about this at the time it was said?

I'm sure nothing was wrong. I'm sure Kaz had played with Ripken-like dedication, and played an Ozzie-like shortstop and hit the hell out of the ball.

But past performance is no assurance of future performance, is it? The fact that a guy hadn't gotten injured in 10 years is either a significant and meaningful sign that he possesses strange abilities and skills at avoiding injuries that would plague another player, or else that he's just been lucky and is way overdue to get injured on a monthly basis.

Which would you say applies to Kaz (at the time you're writing your answer)?

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I don;t follow where you're trying to go here.

First ypou assure us that the Mets will give Kaz job back NQA, I tell you you're wrong and show you how it is, and the issue then becomes what the Mets said about injuries at the time they acquired him?

He's been fragile (the bad back) and a bit unlucky (the slide) so far. It doesn't make the past untrue.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Fragile? No, we paid 8 mil a year for 3 years because he was an iron man. I think you're wrong about him being fragile. If the Mets would have felt he would be fragile, why would they ver have paid that kind of money, slapped their best young player with a wet flounder across the mouth and sent him to switch positions without supper, given Kaz an opt-out of his MLB FA timeline, given him a NT clause like he was a proven star, etc, etc.? No, all those things were a reward for his excellence as a MLB player and the further assurance that would be 161+ games per year player. He's not fragile at all.

And apart from the chops-busting, I'm not completely convinced that the Mets will give him the job back NQA--or more precisely, I'm sure that, at some point, maybe 2 and half years into a ruinous three contract, they may decide that they've humiliated themselves enough, and sit him down. That's possible, so please don't give me I told you so when they become the last people on earth to give up on Kaz Matsui. The fact is they should have done so at least a year ago is where I'm really going with all this. As soon as they saw him playing shortstop like a cat trying to fuck a watermelon, they should have used their brains and "said, We goofed--let's try to salvage something from this horrible mistake--turn him into a UT player? Swap him out for a massive loss? Bribe him to play elsewhere?" But they stuck with him faithfully NQA the last two years, and they're still waiting for him to show his stuff. At least you're still holding out unreasonable hopes that Kaz will come back and make and other Kaz-haters eat crow. Correct? That would (admit it) be very sweet for you. Well, the Mets are thinking just like you.

[Elster88]

]But they stuck with him faithfully NQA the last two years

Is this why you Cairo got so much time last year?

You forget that another reason he got so much time the past two years was the lack of alternatives.

Actually "ignore" is a better fit there than "forget".

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Elster88 wrote: ]But they stuck with him faithfully NQA the last two years Is this why you Cairo got so much time last year? You forget that another reason he got so much time the past two years was the lack of alternatives. Actually "ignore" is a better fit there than "forget".

Youo keep ignoring the fact that Cairo played when Kaz got hurt, as impossible as that was to foretell. They did not choose to sit the 8 mil dollar man down. As long as he could play, he played. They aren;t wasting any money, no siree. What's important, baseball judgment or financial judgment? Who starts and who sits around here? That's easy--what does their contracts say? It's a miracle that David Wright has a job and isnt sitting behind Joe McEwing or some other vet.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

]Youo keep ignoring the fact that Cairo played when Kaz got hurt, as impossible as that was to foretell. They did not choose to sit the 8 mil dollar man down. As long as he could play, he played.

That's simply not true, and doesn;t get any truer when repeated. Matsui had to "play his way back into the mix" twice last year while Cairo stunk up the joint. Right this second he's eligible to return, and won;t for weeks.

You really should have been paying attention.