Being John Maine

[Guest Edgy DC]

ESPN Scouting Report Says:
While his fastball can reach the mid-90s, Maine is more comfortable and effective throwing it in the 92-93 MPH range. His fastball has solid sinking action, limiting the number of home runs he allows. He continues to improve his sharp slider and it's close to being an out pitch. Maine also throws a curveball and changeup, though he's inconsistent in keeping them in the strike zone. Because of his lanky frame, his move to first is mechanical and he's no more than an adequate fielder.

Maine has made a quick ascent to the majors. He's expected to vie for a starting rotation spot in spring training. His limited experience and inconsistent mechanics will make for some rough stretches in 2005. Yet, we'll see some promising efforts based on his natural ability alone.

(Obviously, that's pre-2005.)

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ESPN"s John Sickels Says:

Background
John Maine attended college at the University of North Carolina-Charlotte. As a sophomore in 2001, he led Conference USA with 12 wins, 144 strikeouts, and posted a 3.82 ERA, earning conference Pitcher of the Year honors. However, his junior season in 2002 was less successful, and he dropped to the sixth round in the draft that June. This turned into a bargain pick for the Orioles. Maine pitched brilliantly in his '02 pro debut, then zipped through A-ball in 2003, leading the minor leagues in strikeouts and posting a stellar 185/38 K/BB ratio. He began 2004 in Double-A, but earned his way to Triple-A after just five starts. Maine is one of the better right-handed pitching prospects in the game, and should arrive in Baltimore later this summer.

Scouting report
Maine is a good athlete, tall and somewhat lanky and thin, with broad shoulders. He has a "loose" arm and doesn't look overly vulnerable to injury. His biggest problem in college was erratic mechanics, which would hurt his command on occasion. But this has been much less of a problem in pro ball, and his command has been very sharp. His fastball runs in the 90-93 mph range, with excellent sinking and running action. He has made major improvements with his curveball and changeup, giving him a solid three-pitch arsenal. Maine can throw any of his pitches for strikes, and has overcome a previous habit of relying too much on his fastball. He is intelligent, emotionally mature, and has sound pitching instincts, understanding the necessity of changing speeds and keeping hitters off-balance. Although he doesn't throw quite as hard as some of the elite prospects in the game, he's proven he can dominate professional hitters.

Performance
There is little to complain about in Maine's statistical profile. His K/IP, K/BB, and H/IP ratios have been uniformly excellent at every level, particularly the K/IP. He doesn't give up very many home runs, another positive predictive marker for the future. Although he has just six starts at Double-A and above, his numbers show little deterioration at the higher levels, obviously a good sign. We need to see how he does with the additional Triple-A starts coming his way, but there is nothing in his record to indicate serious adjustment problems ahead.

Health record
Maine has had no serious injury problems. His occasionally erratic mechanics in college made some scouts worry about his long-term health, but he has been more consistent and efficient in pro ball. If you've been reading these reports long enough, you know that doesn't guarantee he'll stay healthy. But it does reduce the risk.

What to expect
Statistically, Maine offers just about everything. Scouting-wise, while he doesn't blow the ball past people with pure velocity, his stuff is more than respectable, and his command has been excellent. He's getting his shot now in Triple-A, and if he continues to pitch well, a promotion to Baltimore is likely later this season. Maine projects as a solid mid-rotation starter, and is a good example of the bargains that can be found in the middle rounds of most draft classes.

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Baseball Prospectus Sez (way back in 2004)

John Maine has ripped up the low minors, with astounding STUFF scores of 57, 45 and 45 in his first three stops. (For some perspective, 10 portends an average major league starter, 20 a very good one, and 30 a true ace.) Funny thing is, according to the scouts, Maine�s, well, stuff is nothing special. We�ll be keeping an eye on him this year as he works his way up out of A-ball into the high minors to see if Maine is for real or just a fluke. Stay tuned.

Here's a bunch of PECOTA and statistical speculative stuff they have on him: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/mainejo01.php

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Matthew Cerrone (metsblog.com) Sez:

A�s GM Billy Beane repeatedly asked the Orioles for RHP John Maine during his talks with Baltimore regarding Tim Hudson last off-season. Maine�s name was mentioned again in talks involving Mark Mulder, as well�

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Post other reports you can get on Maine. Obviously he can make or break the trade. He seems to be in a similar situation to Heilman not long ago. A good college career and a quick rise through the minors, followed by hitting a wall at his first big-league calllup, then stepping back to AAA and mis-stepping there.

[Frayed Knot]

And via Basebal America from just about a year ago:

[u:cbc8402be4]Strengths[/u:cbc8402be4]: Maine succeeds more with command than pure stuff. He added a slider to give him four pitches, along with his fastball, curveball and changeup. He throws 90-91 mph with natural deception, and adds and subtracts from his fastball nicely. He's not afraid to work inside.

[u:cbc8402be4]Weaknesses[/u:cbc8402be4]: None of Maine's pitches is overwhelming, which explains why he struggles when he moves up to a new level. He also needs to refine his command and throw quality strikes after learning that advanced hitters lay off balls out of the zone.

[u:cbc8402be4]Future[/u:cbc8402be4]: Maine has a ceiling of a No 3 starter and probably a #4 or 5 on a first division club. But he's a pitcher's pitcher and should get the most out of his ability.

[Guest Edgy DC]

If Tom Seaver passes (God forbid), we'll name a PItcher's Pitcher Chair after him.

[metirish]

From rotoworld....

] Right-hander John Maine was traded from the Orioles to the Mets in a three-player deal. Maine could be a candidate to step into the rotation should Aaron Heilman or Victor Zambrano struggle this spring, but odds are that he'll return to Triple-A. Once he does get a chance, the National League should be kinder to him than the AL was. Maine typically works around 90 mph, so he relies a great deal on very good command. He's unlikely to develop into anything more than a fifth starter.

http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=7386

[MFS62]

Edgy, that was Sickels' 2004 evaluation of Maine:
.
Here's his 2005 update on his opinion

6) John Maine, RHP
6-11, 4.56 in 23 starts for Triple-A Ottawa, though his component ratios were up to previous standards. Hit hard in 10 games in the majors, with a poor 24/24 K/BB in 40 innings. I still think he will be a useful pitcher but I don't like him as much as I used to.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/11/20/151524/77

Later

[Elster88]

Ouch.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'd be curious as to how well Maine did on prospect lists compared to Mets prospects.

[MFS62]

Edgy, this was published a few days before the Mets got Maine.

]Acording to Matt Meyers from Baseball America . 1. Lastings Milledge 2. Michael Pelfrey 3. Philip Humber 4. Carlos Gomez 5. Fernando Martinez 6. Anderson Hernandez 7. Brian Bannister 8. Alay Soler 9. Jon Niese 10. Deolis Guerra

Since four of them, Pelfrey, Martinez (16 yr old Dominican outfielder), Soler and Guerra (17 year old Venezuelan pitcher) did not play a single minor league inning last year, it will be interesting to see where Maine is placed when this is updated.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy DC wrote: I'd be curious as to how well Maine did on prospect lists compared to Mets prospects.

Maine wasn't on BA's list of Oriole prospects as he had been in the previous 2 years. I'm not sure if that's because they thought his star had dimmed or whether it's because he no longer fit their definition of 'prospect'.
Maine pitched in the majors briefly in each of the previous 2 seasons and, while he didn't pitch enough innings to automatically disqualify himself, it's possible that he was on the ML roster for long enough to make him no longer eligible in BA's eyes.

[Guest Rotblatt]

In his first start in the Carolina League (high single-A), he threw a no-hitter.

In repeating AAA last year, his ERA increased from 3.91 to 4.56, but most of his peripherals actually improved. His WHIP dropped from 1.46 to 1.32, based on a much better BB/9 (2.95 compared to 3.91--the highest of his career) and a marginally better BAA. His K rate dropped a little but not significantly.

His pre-AAA numbers certainly look good. His case strikes me as an example of what peeps feared would happen to Petit--guy with non-dominating stuff, yet dominates at the lower levels, then gets kicked around once he advances. Of course, Petit was insanely younger at each level, and was dominating even as a youngster, whereas Maine was mediocre at best in NCAA ball--3.83 ERA at 20 YO & 5.65 at 21.

Looks to me like he might wind up as an average pitcher.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]...mediocre at best in NCAA ball.

So strike that similarity to Heilman.

[Guest old original jb]

What do you make of his "peripherals" improving while his ERA and the overall perception of his performance declines?

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: [Maine wasn't on BA's list of Oriole prospects as he had been in the previous 2 years.

I posted Sickels' 2005 #6 ranking of him from BA a few posts above yours.

Later

[nymr83]

old original jb wrote: What do you make of his "peripherals" improving while his ERA and the overall perception of his performance declines?

being older than your leaguemates helps lower the perception of you even if you are pitching better, he's 25 isnt he?

[Guest Edgy DC]

He's 24, which doesn't strike me as particularly old for AAA.

Checking, only one player on the Lynx was younger: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/statistics/2005/10337.shtml