A-P Worst Proposed Trade Ever Thread

[Guest Rotblatt]

From Rotoworld:

]ESPN's Peter Gammons has been speculating that Heilman and outfield prospect Lastings Milledge could go to Oakland for Barry Zito. Oct. 29 - 1:51 pm et

Why would we trade for starting pitching when we have a surplus of it? Especially when what we've got is pretty good and pretty much unarguably the LEAST of our problems?

Zito's not even an ace--his career line is 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.03 K/9, 2.05 K/BB. Good, but unspectacular. He's still youngish, but Heilman's younger and is coming off a better year than Zito (3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.83 K/9, 2.86 K/BB).

Throw in the fact that Zito's set to make $8.5M in his walk year, and I'd call it a close call to even do Heilman for Zito straight up. Once you throw in Milledge, it's just silly.

[metirish]

This smells of Rick Peterson all over...no thanks

[Elster88]

On the other hand, Zito did win a Cy Young Award, no? Heilman had a nice year last year, but he's not a guaranteed ace anymore than Zito (and probably less so.)

The inclusion of Milledge kinda makes sense when remembering that Beltran is locked up in center for six years and some of our last "can't miss" outfield prospects have missed badly. Milledge is no sure thing either.

We do have an excess of pitching, but Glavine is getting older, as are Pedro and Traxxxxxxx. And I don't really like Zambrano.

Playing devil's advocate here.

[Guest Iubitul]

just what we need, a burnt out surfer dude pretty boy...

(ducks from thrown cookie sheet)

SC=my weight

[Elster88]

metirish wrote: This smells of Rick Peterson all over...no thanks

Which was the first? Zambrano? Not sure if that was Rick's idea.

My main problem with Peterson is that whenever he goes out to the mound he puts his hand on the pitcher's shoulder and talks to him from about three inches away.

[metirish]

Ah I'm just busting Ricks balls, if we are going to use a blue chip prospect then I think we should at least get that "big bat" for him..

[Elster88]

]if we are going to use a blue chip prospect then I think we should at least get that "big bat" for him

Me too.

[Guest SwitchHitter]

Peter Gammons makes up stuff that just ain't so. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[seawolf17]

Ah, Gammons is just pandering to get Scarlet's support.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Elster88 wrote: On the other hand, Zito did win a Cy Young Award, no? Heilman had a nice year last year, but he's not a guaranteed ace anymore than Zito (and probably less so.)

I hear you--he's a nice pitcher and he's got more of a track record than Heilman, but he's also getting paid $8.5M. Even before throwing in Milledge, is the likely difference between Zito & Heilman $8.2M?

]The inclusion of Milledge kinda makes sense when remembering that Beltran is locked up in center for six years and some of our last "can't miss" outfield prospects have missed badly. Milledge is no sure thing either.

True, but he's also one of the best prospects in baseball, which means an incredibly valuable trading chip. Why use that chip on a position that isn't a problem? This strikes me as a publicity stunt to generate buzz, not a move to make our team better.

]We do have an excess of pitching, but Glavine is getting older, as are Pedro and Traxxxxxxx. And I don't really like Zambrano.

Sure, but the aging Glavine had a suberb 2nd half last year. Petey was good the entire year, although his peripherals declined in the second half. Seo was dominant when he had a chance. So was Heilman. Benson was solid but inconsistent. Trachsel has been a constant #3 guy throughout his career and should be feeling pretty fresh in 2006. Zambrano had stretches where he was decent and in any case would make a great #5 pitcher. Petit has got some serious upside and some scouts think he could be ready to pitch in the middle of 2006.

That's what you call some serious motherfucking depth. Even better, it's got some real upside between Heilman, Seo & Petit.

We need a guy who can close (personally, I'd go after Ryan or Wagner, then resign Loop to a much smaller contract as insurance--if he was ineffective because he was hurt, which seems likely, he'd be worth taking a shot on), a legitimate first baseman, a decent catcher and a solution to the Matsui problem--in that order, IMO.

Upgrading our starting pitching with all those other holes seems foolish to me.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't know what Peterson smells like, to be honest.

[Elster88]

All good points, Rotty.

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

I guess I don't need to weigh in here - my vote seems to be a matter of public knowledge.

[seawolf17]

Scarlet loves Zito in the same way the rest of us have man-crushes on David Wright.

[metirish]

]I don't know what Peterson smells like, to be honest.

I was close to him once(20 feet) and I swear he was lathered with what smelled like Brute....

[smg58]

I'm not sure that the Mets have a legit #2 starter, and I think Zito could fit that bill. That being said, he's not worth Milledge alone, much less Milledge and somebody. The Mets have a surplus of major league talent at certain positions to make deals with, so dicussing Milledge or Petit for anybody at this point is exactly the wrong way to handle this offseason.

[Elster88]

So Zito, a 27 year-old left-handed former Cy Young award winner, is not worth Milledge alone? He's a prospect, for crying out loud.

Ignoring the fact that a starter, as Rotty pointed out, is about sixth on our list of needs, the idea that Barry Zito is not worth giving up Lastings Milledge for is ridiculous. No matter how high he is on RotoWorld's Top Ten Prospects List.

I know this all started with a Peter Gammons' rumor, but the reaction can be staggering when there is a rumor involving one of the Met Farm Kids being traded.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

In the abstract, I'd trade Milledge for Zito, too. The part I don't like is that Zito is in his walk year. Is one year of Zito worth what could be ten or more of Milledge? I'd like this deal a lot better if it included one of those 72-hour negotiating windows.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I probably wouldn't do it but I wouldn't necessarily call this the worst trade proposal ever, and as said above there's an argument for it.

[smg58]

="Elster88"]So Zito, a 27 year-old left-handed former Cy Young award winner, is not worth Milledge alone? He's a prospect, for crying out loud.

First off, I am not at all opposed to looking into getting Zito; I think he could be a solid #2 starter in Peterson's hands, and while we're deep with starters, I don't think we have a clear #2 in house. That being said, he hasn't always been consistent in the past two seasons, and there's a limit to what I'd deal for him. Starting with the Mets' best prospects. You don't deal your best prospects unless you know you're getting an elite player in return, and Zito hasn't been quite that level of pitcher the past two seasons. If the Mets had traded Wright two years ago for somebody like Zito, we'd be regretting it now.

Plus, we currently have eight guys who could be in somebody's rotation next year, along with four capable outfielders, and more than enough money to pursue free agents. I just don't see why acquiring players that could make us contenders should cost us Milledge or Petit.

[Elster88]

smg58 wrote: You don't deal your best prospects unless you know you're getting an elite player in return

I disagree with this, very,very strongly, but that's probably more of a difference in our respective TiTTS ideaologies than anything else.

smg58 wrote: If the Mets had traded Wright two years ago for somebody like Zito, we'd be regretting it now. .

True, but I would wager that for every Milledges that turns out to be a Wright, there are many more that turn out to be an Escobar. (I sense Escobar-defense posts are coming.)

smg58 wrote: Plus, we currently have eight guys who could be in somebody's rotation next year, along with four capable outfielders, and more than enough money to pursue free agents. I just don't see why acquiring players that could make us contenders should cost us Milledge or Petit.

What you are saying here is much different than "he's not worth Milledge alone, much less Milledge and somebody.", which is the main part that I disagreed with. I agree we have other areas to improve besides SP, and I would happily trade Milledge to see them addressed.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]True, but I would wager that for every Milledges that turns out to be a Wright, there are many more that turn out to be an Escobar. (I sense Escobar-defense posts are coming.)

Let's measure that.

Dig up Baseball America 's top ten prospects, 1991-2000, and let's figure out how many became All Stars, how many regulars, how many reserves/platoonists/journeymen (like Escobar), how many AAAA fringers and how many washouts.

[Guest Rotblatt]

There have been a number of studies looking at that kind of thing. Here's the first study I was able to dig up:

]For this study, I estimated career VORP for the BA's top 100 prospects from 1990 through 1997, that is, those who have had at least five years to prove themselves. I used the rule of thumb that 10 runs of value moves one game into the win column. This is what I found: BA Top 30 Prospects, 1990-97 (Hitters Only) Average Career VORP in Games through 2001 Ranking Avg. # of Hitters in Group VORP 1-10 7 18.2 11-20 5 12.9 21-30 6 9.3 . . . Not only do hitters ranked in the top ten include superstars like Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and Manny Ramirez, but those guys are backed up by a host of players like John Olerud, Tim Salmon, Greg Vaughn, and Mo Vaughn, all who have been above-average ballplayers for several years. The mediocrities in the group (Wil Cordero, Alex S. Gonzalez) and flops (Eric Anthony, Ruben Rivera) are but a small minority in a star-studded group.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1459&mode=print&nocache=1111273218

[Guest Edgy DC]

Thanks.

Assuming that Milledge is a top-ten player (and I do), is Zito gonna give you a 18.2+ VoRP?

If so, how much longer?

[smg58]

I wouldn't defend Escobar -- he looked like he was ready, got his chance, and then promptly took several major steps backwards. I don't think the Mets handled the situation improperly, and the Alomar deal looked like a good thing at the time. The three high-end prospects the Mets have had since (Reyes, Wright, and Kazmir) are each coming off solid seasons (All-Star caliber, in Wright's case), but evaluating prospects is an inexact science. It's tough to know who's a keeper and who's expendable when you've never seen them play, but Milledge's recent performance suggests he's heading in the right direction and is worth keeping. At any rate, I think dealing him would be a much greater risk to the team than passing on a deal involving him when we have plenty of other resources with which to obtain good players.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Here's the list. I'm including #11, cause that's when Lastings was selected. Regulars for 2 or more years with career OPS+ or ERA+ over 80 noted in bold. I chose 80 or more because replacement level is considered to be 80% of average.

1991

1. Todd Van Poppel, rhp, Athletics
2. Andujar Cedeno, ss, Astros
3. Ryan Klesko, 1b, Braves
4. Jose Offerman, ss, Dodgers
5. Roger Salkeld, rhp, Mariners
6. Arthur Rhodes, lhp, Orioles
7. Ivan Rodriguez, c, Rangers
8. Reggie Sanders, of, Reds
9. Mark Lewis, ss, Indians
10. Maurice Vaughn, 1b, Red Sox
11. Bernie Williams, of, Yankees

1992
1. Brien Taylor, lhp, Yankees
2. Todd Van Poppel, rhp, Athletics
3. Roger Salkeld, rhp, Mariners
4. Chipper Jones, ss, Braves
5. Arthur Rhodes, lhp, Orioles
6. Royce Clayton, ss, Giants
7. Wilfredo Cordero, ss, Expos
8. Ryan Klesko, 1b, Braves
9. Frank Rodriguez, rhp-ss, Red Sox
10. Pedro Martinez, rhp, Dodgers
11. Reggie Sanders, of, Reds

1993
1. Chipper Jones, ss, Braves
2. Brien Taylor, lhp, Yankees
3. Cliff Floyd, of, Expos
4. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays
5. Tim Salmon, of, Angels
6. Wil Cordero, ss, Expos
7. Todd Van Poppel, rhp, Athletics
8. Jason Bere, rhp, White Sox
9. Allen Watson, lhp, Cardinals
10. Tyrone Hill, lhp, Brewers
11. Kurt Miller, rhp, Rangers

1994
1. Cliff Floyd, 1b, Expos
2. Chipper Jones, ss, Braves
3. Jeffrey Hammonds, of, Orioles
4. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Blue Jays
5. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays
6. Alex Rodriguez, ss, Mariners
7. Manny Ramirez, of, Indians
8. James Baldwin, rhp, White Sox
9. Rondell White, of, Expos
10. Jose Silva, rhp, Blue Jays
11. Darren Dreifort, rhp, Dodgers

1995
1. Alex Rodriguez, ss, Mariners
2. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
3. Chipper Jones, ss, Braves
4. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
5. Brian Hunter, of, Astros
6. Shawn Green, of, Blue Jays
7. Charles Johnson, c, Marlins
8. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Blue Jays
9. Johnny Damon, of, Royals
10. Ben Grieve, of, Athletics
11. Armando Benitez, rhp, Orioles

1996
1. Andruw Jones, of, Braves
2. Paul Wilson, rhp, Mets
3. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
4. Darin Erstad, of, Angels
5. Alan Benes, rhp, Cardinals
6. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
7. Karim Garcia, of, Dodgers
8. Livan Hernandez, rhp, Marlins
9. Vladimir Guerrero, of, Expos
10. Ben Davis, c, Padres
11. Jason Schmidt, rhp, Braves

1997
1. Andruw Jones, of, Braves
2. Vladimir Guerrero, of, Expos
3. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
4. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays
5. Travis Lee, 1b, Diamondbacks
6. Miguel Tejeda, ss, Athletics
7. Todd Walker, 3b, Twins
8. Kris Benson, rhp, Pirates
9. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
10. Nomar Garciaparra, ss, Red Sox
11. Paul Konerko, 1b, Dodgers

1998
1. Ben Grieve, of, Athletics
2. Paul Konerko, 1b/3b, Dodgers
3. Adrian Beltre, 3b, Dodgers
4. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3b, Pirates
6. Matt White, rhp, Devil Rays
7. Kris Benson, rhp, Pirates
8. Travis Lee, 1b, Diamondbacks
9. Carl Pavano, rhp, Expos
10. Miguel Tejada, ss, Athletics
11. Todd Helton, 1b, Rockies

1999
1. J. D. Drew, of, Cardinals
2. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
3. Eric Chavez, 3b, Athletics
4. Bruce Chen, lhp, Braves
5. Brad Penny, rhp, Diamondbacks
6. Michael Barrett, 3b/c, Expos
7. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
8. Pablo Ozuna, ss, Marlins
9. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
10. Matt Clement, rhp, Padres
11. Alex Escobar, of, Mets

2000
1. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
2. Pat Burrell, 1b/of, Phillies
3. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs
4. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
5. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
6. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
7. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
8. Rafael Furcal, ss, Braves
9. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
10. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks
11. Dee Brown, of, Royals


That's 85 out of 110 who were more valuable than replacement players--77%. Most of the flops are pitchers.

My criteria is probably too liberal, but it seems clear that the chance of Milledge providing no value to the Mets should he stay here is very low.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

smg58 wrote: ... we have plenty of other resources with which to obtain good players.

Do we? There's money, of course, but I'm not sure that the Mets have a whole lot of young inexpensive players that many other teams would find appealing.

I think teams will be asking for Milledge and/or Petit. And I don't get the sense that Omar thinks that either of them are untouchable.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Edgy DC wrote: Assuming that Milledge is a to-ten player (and I do), is Zito gonna give you a 18.2+ VoRP? If so, how much longer?

Zito's VORP in 2005 was 41.8 (25th in the majors among pitchers).
2004: 31.5 (54th)
2003: 58.6 (11th)
2002: 73.4 (3rd)
2001: 52.3 (17th)

I would expect Zito to do quite better than 18.2 for a pretty long time. However, I don't think he'll do better than 44.7 (Heilman's 2005 VORP + Milledge's projected VORP) very often.

[smg58]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Do we? There's money, of course, but I'm not sure that the Mets have a whole lot of young inexpensive players that many other teams would find appealing.

Not as appealing as Milledge and Petit, to be sure, but guys like Heilman, Diaz, Hernandez, Seo, and Bannister wouldn't be valueless.

And the players don't have to be young to be dealable. Trachsel and Zambrano would command some market value, and Cameron could probably command quite a bit. The Mets might be in a position to deal other players as well, depending on their free agent acquisitions. (Hypothetically, say somebody offers us a good second baseman for Floyd while we sign Brian Giles.)

On the subject of VORP's, keep in mind that the "replacement player" on the Mets would likely be either Steve Trachsel or Victor Zambrano, or possibly Jae Seo.