Our Bullpen

[Guest Rotblatt]

Just for a lark, I decided to check out our bullpen stats for the first time in a while.

3.73 ERA (5th best in league)
1.44 WHIP (10th)
.722 OPS against (7th)
.264 BAA (11th)
7.16 K/9 (9th)
1.93 K/BB (5th)

Not bad. Nothing's great excect our ERA & our K/BB, but nothing's downright bad at all, although our WHIP & BAA are close.

Since the All-Star Break, we've been better than that. Our relief ERA is down to ~2.87 & WHIP to ~1.36, and that's WITH a 3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP from Hernandez and a 4.68 ERA & 1.44 WHIP from Looper.

Padilla (1.67 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) is pitching over his head based on his K/BB rate (1.17), but given how many he K'ed in AAA, I expect he'll get that ratio up and continue to be effective.

Bell was solid if unspectacular for us in the first half and I see no reason why he'd be any different next season if given a chance. All in all, we could be in nice shape next year. It'd behoove us to add a good-to-excellent reliever, but it doesn't, IMO, need to be a "bonafide" closer.

For one last Mets reliever, let's play a little "who's who" game, shall we? Match the following "Stat Lines Since the All-Star Break" with the correct pitchers.

Aaron Heilman, Billy Wagner, B.J. Ryan, Mariano Rivera

Player A
40.2 IP, 1.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.85 K/9, 5.71 K/BB, 0.22 HR/9

Player B
36.1 IP, 0.74 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.40 K/9, 2.63 K/BB, 0.25 HR/9

Player C
31.2 IP, 0.57 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 10.80 K/9, 4.22 K/BB, 0.28 HR/9

Player D
27.2 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 12.69 K/9, 3.55 K/BB, 0 HR/9

The fact that Heilman's line is even marginally hard to pick out from those lines suggests, IMO, that we could easily use Heilman as our closer next season. Having TWO of those lines on our staff would be pretty fucking sweet, of course, but hardly necessary.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Rivera A
Heilman B
Ryan C
Wagner D

I have no idea really.

That our 2nd half bullpen ERA is better ought to show that despite the heavy criticism WWSB and Omar eventually managed to get the right group of talent together (the 2nd half #s include only 1 heavy suck guy in Graves while the 1st half would include some flameouts).

One thing that ought to be noted is that when its all over next week there will be only two (2) bullpenners to have made it wire-to-wire (Hernandez & Looper) and the latter just barely.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Pretty good, JD but you got one wrong.

Wagner is C & Ryan D.

[Guest Rotblatt]

As for the bullpen comment, I agree for the most part that we wound up with the right guys although there's no reason for Bell to only have 5 (or maybe 7--can't remember) innings.

My problem has been how Willie used them more than how they performed. A few more of Heilman's innings in place of, say, Takatsu's or whomevers might get us an extra win or two.

But as you pointed out in another thread, Willie seems to be getting to right place--it's just taking a little longer than I would have wanted.

[nymr83]

our bullpen is misused at best. their "good" stats would only show that everyone is in the wrong role. also where are inherited runners? thats one of the most important things...

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I think they said Bell's been off recently due to a family health emergency at home, but is back with the team now.

[Frayed Knot]

"their "good" stats would only show that everyone is in the wrong role."

All of them?
And do we really believe that pitching the same cast of more-or-less average characters only in different sequences would somehow make a sizable difference in W/L record?
C'mon now.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Nymr83 wrote: our bullpen is misused at best. their "good" stats would only show that everyone is in the wrong role. also where are inherited runners? thats one of the most important things...

Using the inherited runner stat from Baseball Prospectus, blue is above average and orange below average. Black is average. They are listed in descending order of rank.

Robo's allowed 5 of 29 to score (10th best ranking in the majors). Padilla's allowed 2 of 17 (34th). Heilman's allowed 8 of 27. Bell's allowed 3 of 17. Santiago allowed 0 of 2. Matthews allowed 0 of 4. Aybar 3 of 10. Zambrano 0 of 0. Heredia 0 of 0. =orange]Hamulak 2 of 6. Looper 4 of 11. DeJean 1 of 4. Graves 6 of 9. Ring 3 of 9. Takatsu 6 of 8. Koo 11 of 24 (second worst in the majors).

I assume their ranking takes into account the situation and where the runners are--stranding a runner at third with less than two outs probably counts more than stranding a runner at 1st with 2 outs.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Frayed Knot"]"their "good" stats would only show that everyone is in the wrong role." And do we really believe that pitching the same cast of more-or-less average characters only in different sequences would somehow make a sizable difference in W/L record? C'mon now.

Um, yes?

Imagine if the Yankees used Mariano Rivera for mop-up duty. Even if Rivera never gave up a run, he would almost never have any impact in whether the Yankees won. Now imagine if they used Stanton as their closer. He would cost them far more games in that role than as a LOOGY or mop-up guy.

Now, our problem isn't nearly that extreme, but it's still been a problem for us. Less now than before, since Heilman performing mop-up duty--or other low-leverage situations--part of the season was really exhibit A and now he's closing.

One could probably argue that Padilla should have been pitching for us a lot sooner (I'm pretty sure I did just that back in the Norfolk thread, as a matter of fact), but once he got here, Willie was pretty good at using him in at least neutral situations as opposed to mop-up (his LEV is 0.97. 0 is average and the higher you go, the bigger the situations he's been placed in.).

Unless what you're arguing is that all our relievers are pretty much the same, which is just completely wrong. Despite his mediocre second half, Robo's STILL been one of the best relievers in the league, and Heilman's not far behind him. Padilla has also been pretty fucking good, at least going by ERA & WHIP.

[Frayed Knot]

Not only isn't our situation remotely as extreme as the example, but it's barely relevent. No one - much less "everyone" - is in roles so ridiculously mis-applied.

If this "leverage" stat is supposed to reflect how dramatically a game is affected by a run given up then anyone who comes in earlier is going to score lower than 8th/9th inning guys and Heilman's early season use as a long man is going to show that. He was given an increased role - both in timing and closeness - as he showed he could handle it, something he surely hadn't done coming in to this season. This notion that it somehow proves that Heilman spent a lengthy stint as a "mop-up" man and that games were being lost because of it is taking that stat a bit too literally.

According to the above stats, the pen spent the year giving up fewer runs than their hits, WHiP, OPS, etc imply they should have, and I find it a pretty big leap of faith to assume that if the same crew could have produced those same stats only in different orders then the results would have been dramatically different.
The biggest pen problem we've had is that the closer had an awful season. The trial-and-error attempts to find middle relievers and start seeing who works where is something every team does on a constant and ongoing basis.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Frayed Knot"]If this "leverage" stat is supposed to reflect how dramatically a game is affected by a run given up then anyone who comes in earlier is going to score lower than 8th/9th inning guys and Heilman's early season use as a long man is going to show that. He was given an increased role - both in timing and closeness - as he showed he could handle it, something he surely hadn't done coming in to this season. This notion that it somehow proves that Heilman spent a lengthy stint as a "mop-up" man and that games were being lost because of it is taking that stat a bit too literally.

In another thread about a month ago (after he had clearly proved himself to pretty much anyone who bothered to follow him), I plotted out a bunch of his most rececent appearances and about 2 in 10 could even loosely be termed as "high leverage." Take a look at his game log some time and you'll see what I mean.

Heilman only about a week ago moved ahead of Padilla on the depth chart, and what had Padilla proved to anyone aside from Oberkfell? Why is Takatsu so high on the depth chart? Why was Graves used in a game last night where we were only 3 runs down? Bullpen management is a clear weakness of WIllie's. The reason why that concerns me--why bullpen management concerns ANYONE--is that it costs us games. If you don't buy that in our case this year, fine--we'll just have to agree to disagree.

It's been my theory that our significantly below-average record in games where we score between 1 & 4 runs--and games decided by 1 run--is in large part due to Willie's bullpen management. I might very well be wrong, but it's a theory that I'll try and test out this offseason.

[Frayed Knot]

]our significantly below-average record in games where we score between 1 & 4 runs-

As opposed to all those teams who have have GOOD records in those games?

And if Heilman had been used where Graves had been yesterday - down 3 runs/middle innings - that's exactly the sort of situation which would register as "low leverage" and set off a new round of complaints. But now Graves being used there is an example of "mis-management"?

My point is not that you can't find individual examples of where you'd make a different call, only that I think it's getting to the point where we're looking pretty hard to find ammo and exaggerating the impact that it's had. I mean Takatsu's pitched all of 5 innings fer crissakes, it's not like using him in a different 5 innings would have changed things.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Graves has not pitched in five freaking weeks, then finally comes in down three runs in the middle innings on September 26th (actually the 27th at that point I think) with the team ten games out. Let's not make too much of his alleged misuse.

As a Met, he's got no wins, no losses, no saves, but somehow one hold.

It's hard to look at his record and find a manegerial mis-reading of the leverage he deserves.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Rotblatt wrote: Robo's allowed 5 of 29 to score (10th best ranking in the majors). Padilla's allowed 2 of 17 (34th).

Confusing arising. Why is Padilla lower ranked here than Hernandez?

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Frayed Knot"] ]our significantly below-average record in games where we score between 1 & 4 runs- As opposed to all those teams who have have GOOD records in those games?

Yes. I did this work in another thread and we're significantly worse than the average team in those situations. The average team would have won between 5 and 7 more games than we did, given the number of times we scored between 1 & 4 runs.

]And if Heilman had been used where Graves had been yesterday - down 3 runs/middle innings - that's exactly the sort of situation which would register as "low leverage" and set off a new round of complaints. But now Graves being used there is an example of "mis-management"?

Yes. Heilman should not have been used. But neither should have Graves (probably the worst reliever still on a MLB roster, at this point), because it's not nearly low-leverage enough for him. We still had a chance at winning that game, which is why we should have used pretty much anyone else on our roster (aside from Robo, Heilman and probably Padilla).

He shouldn't be used at all. Ever.

]My point is not that you can't find individual examples of where you'd make a different call, only that I think it's getting to the point where we're looking pretty hard to find ammo and exaggerating the impact that it's had. I mean Takatsu's pitched all of 5 innings fer crissakes, it's not like using him in a different 5 innings would have changed things.

Did you WATCH the games where we used Takatsu? Games where Takatsu did his job in blue. Red where he hurt us.

yesterday
Mets down 4-2, bottom of seventh, 2 outs. Takatsu gives up home run. We end up winning, but Takatsu made it that much more difficult.

9/21
Mets tied, 3-3, top of the 8th, 2 outs, runners on 1st & 3rd. Takatsu gives up the go-ahead run. We end up winning, but, again, he makes it more difficult.

9/17
Mets down 5-4, top of 7th. Gives up a HR, gets two outs, then loads the bases before giving way to Padilla, who gets the final out. We ended up losing, 7-4.

=blue]9/15
Mets up, 5-4, top of 6th. Takatsu sets em down 1-2-3. We lose, 5-6.

9/10
Mets down, 4-1, bottom of 6th. Takatsu gets one out, then allows two batters to reach. Hamulak relieved and bailed him out with a DP. We lose, 4-2

9/7
Mets up, 3-2, bottom of 10th. Takatsu comes on with no outs and the bases loaded. Gets two outs, then allows a single by Langerhans, scoring the go-ahead runs. We lose, 4-3.

=blue]9/6
Mets down 3-1, bottom of 8th. Takatsu allows a single but that's it. We lose, 3-1.

9/3
Mets up, 4-2, bottom 7th, bases loaded, 2 outs. Cabrera doubles in go-ahead runs, IBB Delgado, then strikes out Encarnacion. We lose, 5-4.

It's not really fair to use 9/7 against him, but if we needed a glaring example of how Willie can't manage a bullpen to save his life, that's a pretty fucking good one.

Anyway, that's 2 games Takatsu has cost us from his 5 innings. He was solid in two losing efforts, but has never helped us win one (unless you call only allowing 1 run in part of an inning help).

On edit: My real problem is that this scenario was played out throughout the season with different pitchers playing the part of Takatsu. We used pitchers in critical situations when they had no real business being there, when we had better options available.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Edgy DC wrote: ="Rotblatt"]Robo's allowed 5 of 29 to score (10th best ranking in the majors). Padilla's allowed 2 of 17 (34th). Confusing arising. Why is Padilla lower ranked here than Hernandez?

I'm assuming it's because Hernandez stranded runners in more difficult situations--fewer outs, runner on third instead of 1st, etc.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]He shouldn't be used at all. Ever.

Part of managing a team is trying to find spots to take advantage of players doing well and providing opportunities at redemption for players doing poorly. Now, another part of the game is figuring who is worthy of a shot at redemption and who isn't. But that's your issue with Graves, not how he's used, but that he's used. That's not really on Randolph, but on the entire braintrust. Personally, I don't care that much about the last guy in the bullpen. He's always going to be a project.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Edgy DC"] ]He shouldn't be used at all. Ever. Part of managing a team is trying to find spots to take advantage of players doing well and providing opportunities at redemption for players doing poorly. Now, another part of the game is figuring who is worthy of a shot at redemption and who isn't. But that's your issue with Graves, not how he's used, but that he's used. That's not really on Randolph, but on the entire braintrust. Personally, I don't care that much about the last guy in the bullpen. He's always going to be a project.

Yeah, I guess that's my issue. But if I'm Willie, I don't use him, even if he's on the team. And I especially wouldn't use him down only 3 runs. Or with any kind of a lead.

And our last guy doesn't HAVE to be as big a project as Graves is. How about Santiago? Or one of the other AAA boys?

Anyway, I see your point, but Graves really feels like a waste of time to me. Unless, of course, Peterson has intentionally fucked up Graves' mechanics in some easily correctable manner so that Graves would be crappy as hell this season, which will allow us to sign him in 2006 to a piddly little deal, whereupon Peterson will correct Graves' mechanics and we'll have ourselves a cheap closer.

But that seems a little far-fetched to me.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, all failing projects feel like a waste of time. But you do them anyway for the sake of the benefit of the few that succeed.

As for why to use him over the younger players. Part of the reason, I hope, is that they have to decide whether to retain interest in him (and Takatsu and other vets) come the end of the season. The youger players, the AAA boys, will be back next year no matter what.

[Frayed Knot]

After a while this whole bullpen critique starts to boil down to:
- don't use guys I don't like ever unless we're up by 12 or more runs
AND
- use only the guys I like and only in late innings when the game is on the line or it will be construed as mis-use

... at which point the whole issue becomes more a case of scapegoating than anaysis. It's also something that fans of every single team complain about. Ask any fan about how to improve his team and the most common answer would be to lop the worst 4 guys off the back of the pen. 'Don't use X, use some guy who's not here', is a time-honored fan fave.

[Vic Sage]

but ... but ... but... LF!

Don't you realize that Rottweiler has already proven his preconceived notions with cherrypicked stats?

why would you challenge that?

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Frayed Knot"]After a while this whole bullpen critique starts to boil down to: - don't use guys I don't like ever unless we're up by 12 or more runs AND - use only the guys I like and only in late innings when the game is on the line or it will be construed as mis-use

Substitute "effective" for "guys I like" and "ineffective" for "guys I don't like" and I think you've got it, Frayed.

It's not so difficult after all, is it?

]... at which point the whole issue becomes more a case of scapegoating than anaysis. It's also something that fans of every single team complain about. Ask any fan about how to improve his team and the most common answer would be to lop the worst 4 guys off the back of the pen. 'Don't use X, use some guy who's not here', is a time-honored fan fave.

So I suggest that we use our good relievers in situations where they can help, bad relievers in situations where they can't hurt and getting rid of our very worst reliever, and you sum it up as scapegoating?

What am I missing here?

And Norrin, why not look at what I've written and tell me where I'm wrong AND THEN make cutesy comments?

It kind of doesn't work unless you at least try to discredit me first.

[Vic Sage]

my time is so short these days, i just figured i would cut to the chase and say something obnoxious right away, without all the preliminary groundwork that i'd normally try to establish.

besides, while i happen to think that WWSB is 1 step up from complete boob, and i'd agree that one of the symptoms of his boobery is his general mishandling of the bullpen, i do think you've grossly overstated the impact a few innings of Takatsu and Graves have had on the Mets season.

you can't use your 2 or 3 best relievers in every situation. Thats why there are 6-7 guys out there. so, if takatsu can't pitch in losing games, then he can't ever be used, and we're playing shorthanded. Your gripe is with Minaya.

[Guest Edgy DC]

High enough leverage for Heilman here, I think.

[Frayed Knot]

"What am I missing here?"

What you're missing is that you've so narrowly defined what proper use is that there's virtually nothing that a manager could do so as to NOT be found guilty of misuse. When anything after the 5th inning or within 3 (or maybe more - I dunno) runs can only be solved by the likes of Robo, Heilman, and I guess Padilla if he's in favor these days, then you've not only set a standard that Willie could never meet but one that no manager or team could either. You're destined to be suffer from pen misuse forever if that's your criteria because a manager simply can't run a bullpen using the same 3 or 4 guys every day and only saving the back-end guys for those occasional 2 touchdown blowouts. No one's arguing that Takatsu has been good, only that his impact has been minimal and that your real issue isn't just when he's being used but THAT he is - as it seems to be for Graves, Koo, DeJean, Aybar, etc. Hey look, I want my 10th, 11th & 12th guys on the staff to be lights-out, fireballing K-artists too and I'm sure it's up there on Willie's Xmas list and Omar's to-do list ... right above the one about getting 5-tool studs for the bench and just after the one involving Eva Longoria and jello.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's what I hate about Omar. He really disrespects the meaning of Christmas.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Vic Sage wrote: my time is so short these days, i just figured i would cut to the chase and say something obnoxious right away, without all the preliminary groundwork that i'd normally try to establish. besides, while i happen to think that WWSB is 1 step up from complete boob, and i'd agree that one of the symptoms of his boobery is his general mishandling of the bullpen, i do think you've grossly overstated the impact a few innings of Takatsu and Graves have had on the Mets season. you can't use your 2 or 3 best relievers in every situation. Thats why there are 6-7 guys out there. so, if takatsu can't pitch in losing games, then he can't ever be used, and we're playing shorthanded. Your gripe is with Minaya.

I don't think Graves has had much of an impact at all, actually. Willie HAS used him pretty much only in blow-outs. It just offends me that he's still on our team since he's been so very bad.

Takatsu hasn't been around enough to have a huge impact, although he probably has cost us maybe a game or so, which is pretty impressive in just 5 innings.

Willie, on the other hand, has been around plenty long enough to have an impact, and I think his choices in who to pitch when have cost us. My intent was to use Heilman, Bell ,Takatsu, DeJean, Aybar, etc., as examples of Willie's inability to use pitchers appropriately rather than to blame any one of them on costing us our season.

I seem to be pissing in the wind here, though, so I'll just drop it.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Some ez-era poster (nymr, was that you?), when Heilman first got a start, railed against the Mets because Heilman had previously proved that sucks.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Frayed Knot"]"What am I missing here?" What you're missing is that you've so narrowly defined what proper use is that there's virtually nothing that a manager could do so as to NOT be found guilty of misuse. When anything after the 5th inning or within 3 (or maybe more - I dunno) runs can only be solved by the likes of Robo, Heilman, and I guess Padilla if he's in favor these days, then you've not only set a standard that Willie could never meet but one that no manager or team could either. You're destined to be suffer from pen misuse forever if that's your criteria because a manager simply can't run a bullpen using the same 3 or 4 guys every day and only saving the back-end guys for those occasional 2 touchdown blowouts. No one's arguing that Takatsu has been good, only that his impact has been minimal and that your real issue isn't just when he's being used but THAT he is - as it seems to be for Graves, Koo, DeJean, Aybar, etc. Hey look, I want my 10th, 11th & 12th guys on the staff to be lights-out, fireballing K-artists too and I'm sure it's up there on Willie's Xmas list and Omar's to-do list ... right above the one about getting 5-tool studs for the bench and just after the one involving Eva Longoria and jello.

I don't think it's unrealistic to ask your manager to recognize who his best relief pitchers are and use them as much as possible in high-leverage situations.

I think that Willie has been unable to do this. I think that has cost us games.

As for it being unrealistic that a manager could primarily use just 2 pitchers in high-leverage situations all season long, I completely disagree. Looper (~1.7 LEV) & Hernandez (~1.6 LEV) got the majority of high-leverage innings all season long. Without looking at the Yankees' stats, I can pretty much guarantee that Gordon & Rivera got most of their high-leverage situations as well.

All I'm saying is that I'd like to see our manager treat his best pitchers like they're his best pitchers and to use his worst pitchers only when he has to.

And just to make myself clear, I think our pen, as a whole, is pretty decent. Loop's a great ROOGY, Koo & Ishii have great splits against lefties, Takatsu has done well when starting off innings, Bell can get K's when he needs them, Zambrano was pretty impressive overall the few appearances he got, and Padilla, Robo & Heilman have been great across the board.

The only person I think is worthless is Graves.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

A general point: I'm not sure if it's fair, necessarily, to view a pitcher's leverage figures in concert with his performance.

What I'm saying is: Had we all tried and make predictions as to who would be bringing up the front or the rear in "leverage" this year, I'd guess we'd all be pretty certain that Looper, barring injury, would be at or near that top and after that, anyone's guess, but probably we'd say DeJean.

Did any of fail to be surprised that Hernandez claimed the 8th inning as convincingly as he did? He didn't start out in that role. Heilman I'm sure wouldn;t have even placed above Aybar or Heredia or Matthews or Koo.

Had we made these predictions at this time last year, the list might have contained guys like Moreno and Yates who never even pitched this year.