IGT, 923/2005, NYC@DC

[Zvon]

Edgy DC wrote: " ...........can lick my mole."

lmaoooooo.

[Zvon]

Heilman?
or is CBS messin with me again?

[Guest Edgy DC]

KC, not quite licking mole.

I'm kind of glad that Baerga did what he did. It's forced Randolph to buck up and give Heilman a chance to close it out.

It's like he said, "Hernandez? Wrong choice, Willie. I'm going to give you another chance to get it right."

[Guest KC]

Mets win!

I can't wait to rank the 2005 Mets. Please, no one, can feel good about
tonight's game. I'd have rather seen Cairo hit a three run bomb.

I also have continued hat for the F X Healy Mets' commercial going on
during broadcasts ... but that's better left for another discussion.

[Zvon]

Nice close by heilman.
he gets it done.

Great game.

[Guest Edgy DC]

KC has apparently forbid good feelings.

Until next time, have a terrible night.

[Guest SwitchHitter]

My night's been terrible for awhile. We lost and Philly won. At least I still have my internet connection.

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Good luck tomorrow Annie. Check in whenever you can, ok?

[Guest Rotblatt]

I missed most of this one, but a happy happy recap! Trachs came up big and so (finally!) did Beltran. Good stuff.

(Sorry, KC. I can't help myself.)

[Guest Spacemans Bong]

KC wrote: I don't boo, but he's sucked this year and his performance has cost the Mets a realistic shot at the playoffs. Yes, it's on his head in my mind this year ... it's ALL YOU CARLOS.

Uh, what?

Beltran's still on pace to have a very good season. 21 win shares going into tonight (so he probably picked up another one). 21 win shares is an All-Star year.

It's disappointing because his best years are around 28-32, but the club wouldn't really be in the wild card race even if he was brilliant - the bullpen woes and the doofus managing the club are the two biggest enemies, IMHO.

[Frayed Knot]

cooby wrote: Did anybody hear the Aflac answer? I was reading the paper with the sound off and missed it

It was Piazza from 2000 (only NYM w/a .600+ Slugging Pct)

]I have no idea why Floyd ended up only at first and Beltran at second. That was very deep and high. Off the base of the wall.

It was because Beltran decided it was a good idea to tag in case the fly was caught. It was a stupid move (as tagging from 1st usually is) especially so since neither OFer came all that close to catching it.
I have arguments w/some of my softball teammates all the time on this - but tagging from 1st rarely works. Think about it, the ball has to be far enough to where you can beat the shortest OF throw there is yet high or short enough to where you know (or at least strongly suspect) that it will be caught. That's a rare combo and the downside to being wrong it that you not only cost yourself an extra base (maybe 2 in this case as Carlos might have scored) but also you cost the batter a base.

[Guest Edgy DC]

At any rate, the time to do it (assuming there is a correct time --- which FK persuasively argues there isn't) is a high deep fly to right, not on a deep drive to left center.

It wasn't close to being caught and you could see that early on.

[Guest KC]

While tossing and turning, I did make a better case for the bullpen being
a bigger factor in 2005 than Carlos. I was frustrated. The best thing was
waking this morning and Spaceman throwing Win Shares in my face after
having to read some of his post game frustrations this season.

I don't think Willie's blunders are as much a factor as most of you, but we
have all winter to hash that out.

And Edge, nothing is forbidden - don't go all saladoc on us.

[Guest Spacemans Bong]

KC wrote: While tossing and turning, I did make a better case for the bullpen being a bigger factor in 2005 than Carlos. I was frustrated. The best thing was waking this morning and Spaceman throwing Win Shares in my face after having to read some of his post game frustrations this season. I don't think Willie's blunders are as much a factor as most of you, but we have all winter to hash that out. And Edge, nothing is forbidden - don't go all saladoc on us.

We're all mad about Beltran's lack of production, but I see other, more pressing issues. Like that poopy bullpen and Willie Randolph's fascination with Miguel Cairo and Marlon Anderson, first baseman, and other stuff.

Beltran's defense is surprisingly very, very good this year. Wonder if Cameron taught him some tricks.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Interesting, Bong. I hadn't looked at WS at all this year. I'm always really suspicious of their defensive WS, however.

I suspect that Beltran wasn't REALLY that valuable to us defensively. (FWIW, he clocked in at 6.0 FWS last year, only .1 FWS less than this year.)

The top three players in fielding win shares are catchers (Matheny at 10.5, Ausumus at 9 & Schnieder at 7.9). I don't really buy that the three most valuable fielders in the NL all happened to be catchers.

The most any first baseman got was 2.7--a tie between D. Lee & Helton. Woodward & Marlon Anderson each had .1 DWS more than Mientkiewicz who clocked in at an even 1. Last year, Piazza earned 2.1 DWS at 1st.

Defense at 1B is notoriously tough to account for, but doesn't that seem fucked up?

Biggio's the 5th best fielding 2B in the NL this year. Kent's the 7th. I don't buy that. Cairo comes in at 14 with 2.7. Matsui is 20th at 2.1. Those two sound plausible, except I REALLY don't believe that Cairo's defense at 2nd was worth as much as, say, Helton's defense at 1st.

Wright was the second-best fielding 3B and only by .1 WS (losing out to Ensberg). Putting aside our blue & orange glasses, does anyone here REALLY buy that? Wright's been inconsistent over there, especially in the early part of the season.

Piazza gets 3.1 DWS, 13th best C in the NL. That's also good for the 5th most valuable fielder on our team, behind only Beltran (6.1), Floyd (4.4), Wright (4.3) & Reyes (4.3). Castro earned 2.5 DWS. I'm pretty sure that on a per-start basis, Piazza was considered at least as valuable defensively as Castro, but I haven't done the math yet.

All in all, I don't really trust DWS. I have problems with WS in general (was Floyd REALLY more valuable offensively than Andruw? Was Beltran REALLY 3 WS more valuable than Pedro? Did Pedro REALLY cost himself 3 WS of his batting?) but the defensive ones really throw me for a loop.

Here's a link to how they figure them out. It's very complicated and I totally don't completely understand it. It SOUNDS plausible but I supect it needs some serious tweaking. At the very least, I'd prefer to take their DWS with a grain salt--and to compare it with other fielding metrics, like FRAA, which credits Floyd (16 RAA2) having a better season defensively than Beltran (5 RAA2), and shows that Piazza WAS a liability behind the plate (-6 RAA2) while Castro was decent (3 RAA2) & Wright was a little below average (-1 RAA2). I question whether Cairo was really above average (4 RAA2) and whether Dougie was our worst-fielding 1B (-2 RAA2), but all in all, those stats make more sense to me than the DWS.

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/details.html#sharecalc

[Guest Edgy DC]

Kase, don't worry, I enjoyed myself anyhow.

I don't really trust win shares either. I think they're philosophically going in the right direction, but their numbers aren't all in place.

But I have no problem thinking (1) that the most valuable defenders are catchers, as they are the rarest, and (2) that (reputedly) mediocre or lesser players at middle infield positions get as much credit as (reputely) good first basemen. It's just a rarer skill, even if you're not so great at it. Try putting Cairo at first and Helton at second and see what happens. Helton's real value will remain his stick.

I don't think it's so implausible to give Wright the second most win shares at third, even though, as you point out, he was spotty through the early part of the season. Wright has played 97.8% of the Mets' innings at third this year. Ensberg played merely 88.6% of his team's. Rolen less than half his team's. You've got to be in it, they'll tell you, in order to win it.

The problem with Floyd over Andruw (and I still contend that Andruw isn't what he was), I think, is that a good assist year is disproportionately credited because win shares doesn't succuessfully credit --- I suspect --- the guy with the good arm but few assists, that supresses the running game because few dare to run on him.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]The problem with Floyd over Andruw (and I still contend that Andruw isn't what he was), I think, is that a good assist year is disproportionately credited because win shares doesn't succuessfully credit --- I suspect --- the guy with the good arm but few assists, that supresses the running game because few dare to run on him.

No no--I mean that Floyd had more OFFENSIVE win shares than Andruw did--18.7 to 18.6. How in the world does that happen? (By the way, Andruw actually got 6.0 DWS, compared to 4.4 for Floyd.)

As for your other comments on defense, I hear you. I don't think, however, that the rarity issue (catchers are rarer than first baseman) means that catchers earn more win shares. It looks like it's more about opportunities than anything else, based on the definition from HBT. And frankly, I don't see that catchers get more opportunities than anyone else, unless they're taking into account each pitch (which they're not).

Interestingly, they don't seem to take into account SB with Catchers--just CS, which is bizarre and explains why Piazza isn't dead last in FWS. It ALSO looks like DWS only uses Deffense Efficiency Rating in looking at OFs, not infielders at all, which is also strange. It basically penalizes teams with groundball staffs . . . We have an excellent DER, which helps explain why Beltran & Floyd got so many DWS.

Anyway, the stat is definitely nifty but perhaps overly complicated.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]No no--I mean that Floyd had more OFFENSIVE win shares than Andruw did--

Sorry to miss that.

Anyhow, I still stand by the notion that catching is the most valuable defensive posiition besides pitcher. And, yes, in part because of his value on every pitch.

[Guest Spacemans Bong]

Rotblatt wrote: Interesting, Bong. I hadn't looked at WS at all this year. I'm always really suspicious of their defensive WS, however. I suspect that Beltran wasn't REALLY that valuable to us defensively. (FWIW, he clocked in at 6.0 FWS last year, only .1 FWS less than this year.) The top three players in fielding win shares are catchers (Matheny at 10.5, Ausumus at 9 & Schnieder at 7.9). I don't really buy that the three most valuable fielders in the NL all happened to be catchers. The most any first baseman got was 2.7--a tie between D. Lee & Helton. Woodward & Marlon Anderson each had .1 DWS more than Mientkiewicz who clocked in at an even 1. Last year, Piazza earned 2.1 DWS at 1st. Defense at 1B is notoriously tough to account for, but doesn't that seem fucked up? Biggio's the 5th best fielding 2B in the NL this year. Kent's the 7th. I don't buy that. Cairo comes in at 14 with 2.7. Matsui is 20th at 2.1. Those two sound plausible, except I REALLY don't believe that Cairo's defense at 2nd was worth as much as, say, Helton's defense at 1st. Wright was the second-best fielding 3B and only by .1 WS (losing out to Ensberg). Putting aside our blue & orange glasses, does anyone here REALLY buy that? Wright's been inconsistent over there, especially in the early part of the season. Piazza gets 3.1 DWS, 13th best C in the NL. That's also good for the 5th most valuable fielder on our team, behind only Beltran (6.1), Floyd (4.4), Wright (4.3) & Reyes (4.3). Castro earned 2.5 DWS. I'm pretty sure that on a per-start basis, Piazza was considered at least as valuable defensively as Castro, but I haven't done the math yet. All in all, I don't really trust DWS. I have problems with WS in general (was Floyd REALLY more valuable offensively than Andruw? Was Beltran REALLY 3 WS more valuable than Pedro? Did Pedro REALLY cost himself 3 WS of his batting?) but the defensive ones really throw me for a loop. Here's a link to how they figure them out. It's very complicated and I totally don't completely understand it. It SOUNDS plausible but I supect it needs some serious tweaking. At the very least, I'd prefer to take their DWS with a grain salt--and to compare it with other fielding metrics, like FRAA, which credits Floyd (16 RAA2) having a better season defensively than Beltran (5 RAA2), and shows that Piazza WAS a liability behind the plate (-6 RAA2) while Castro was decent (3 RAA2) & Wright was a little below average (-1 RAA2). I question whether Cairo was really above average (4 RAA2) and whether Dougie was our worst-fielding 1B (-2 RAA2), but all in all, those stats make more sense to me than the DWS. http://www.baseballgraphs.com/details.html#sharecalc

Beltran is +17 on UZR according to MGL. That's among the best range of any CF in the majors most years.

RAA2 is a Prospectus stat, no? Most statheads trust prospectus defensive stats as far as they can throw them. MGL has the best indicator of range of any stat right now, as far as I can tell, and his system likes Beltran a lot.