Carson Benge’s Floor Is Pretty High For a Rookie, But How High Is the Ceiling?

[Michael Reed]

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

As confirmed by New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, Carson Benge not only made the roster, but he also will be the starting right fielder against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Opening Day.

The Mets are placing a lot of trust in the 23-year-old rookie to hold down the right field spot for the 2026 season, especially after it was announced that offseason signee Mike Tauchman will undergo surgery following a meniscus tear. Benge now has the job security and all the tools to put together a strong rookie season in 2026. The only question is how good (or bad) could this season be for him?

Carson Benge's Optimistic 2026 Outlook

It is not crazy to say that Benge has one of the best foundations a rookie could have: plus defender, 60-grade arm, and a 60-grade hit tool. He has the potential to be a five-tool player in this league. In the spring, Benge slashed .366/.435/.439 with a .874 OPS in 46 plate appearances. According to Prospect Savant, in the minor leagues last year Benge had a 94th percentile xSLG, 94th percentile barrel rate, and he finished in the 92nd percentile in spring speed. In the best-case scenario, you are looking at a potential Gold Glove candidate who can finish with a 20 homers and 20 steals. In said scenario, Mendoza would have flexibility to bat Benge anywhere in the lineup.

The top prospect certainly has proven in the minors and spring training that his hit tool is consistent enough to produce in the majors. This spring, Benge had a 140 WRC+. In the minors last season, Benge produced a 150 WRC+ in 116 games across A+, AA and AAA. He has positively affected every team he has been on, consistently getting on base, playing good defense and not striking out. It's the profile of a mature veteran, one which will hopefully translate right away.

Carson Benge's Pessimistic Outlook

There are three potential flaws that could sink his rookie campaign.. The first being that he has proven to be a slow adjuster. Through his first five games in Double-A, he went 3-21 for a .142 batting average. Likewise, his promotion to Triple-A did not end up going well for him. For the Syracuse Mets, he slashed .178/.272/.311 in 103 plate appearances.

For Benge to be the five-tool player he is believed to be, he would need to produce power, something which has been inconsistent throughout his professional career. He had one lone home run this spring, and in 519 plate appearances in the minors last year, he produced 15 home runs. While his hard-hit rates are high, he has been unable to get under the ball enough to put balls over the fence. According to Prospect Savant, Benge had a 73rd percentile Max Exit Velocity and a 31st percentile Pull Air %. There's clearly some untapped potential in that department.

My last point, and the common question the Mets community has about Benge, is his habit of hitting on top of the ball. Benge posted a 70% groundball rate this spring after sitting at 42% last year. In conjunction with the discussion about power, there's clearly an evolution that needs to take place in his contact profile.

If there's no evolution on that front, though, is his current form sustainable? Now that is a major question and definitely something to follow this season. We see Luis Arraez consistently have 40% or higher groundball rates and he wins batting titles. We have also seen Brett Baty really struggle with getting on top of the ball and rolling over for outs, a problem Baty (mostly) fixed last season.

Benge’s main criticism across advanced metrics sites has been that while he can be a five-tool player, none of his tools are great. However, to have five good tools is really impressive. You can count on four of them right out of the gate: speed, fielding, arm strength, and hitting for average. That fifth tool, hitting for power, could make or break whether we get best-case scenario Carson Benge, or the worst case.

View full article